Pacific
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.3 #123
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #123
Pace 64.2 #302
Improvement +1.3 #128

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #136 B- C+ D- C C
Defense #126 B- B- C- C- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.12 #227 +0.0 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #131 0.91 #26 +2.6 #60
Three Pointers 37% #264 1.12 #51 +0.0 #175
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #103 +2.6 #103
Freethrows 0.28 #263 76% #65 0.21 #210
Second Chance 35.0% #60 0.97 #276 0.34 #128
Turnovers 19.3% #334
Total Offense +1.0 #136

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.12 #133 +5.5 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.76 #189 -2.6 #346
Three Pointers 43% #128 0.98 #127 -0.1 #177
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #87 +2.7 #88
Freethrows 0.34 #289 71% #122 0.24 #274
Second Chance 25.5% #30 1.06 #202 0.27 #70
Turnovers 15.3% #248
Total Defense +1.3 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #211 -2.9% #20
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #87 -2.5% #135
Possession Length 19.0 #327 17.3 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #296 0.15 #122
Improvement +1.4 #110 -0.2 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.2
.500 or above 92.4% 99.2% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 90.4% 61.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 41 - 9
Quad 35 - 46 - 13
Quad 411 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 74 @Nevada L 77 - 78 21% -2  0 - 1 +10 +12 A F A+ -2 B- C- C
 Wed, Nov 12 251 Long Beach St. W 69 - 66 83% -3  1 - 1 -5 -6 F A- F +1 A- D- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 216 @Cal St. Fullerton W 85 - 73 60% +14  2 - 1 +12 +4 A+ F+ F +7 A+ B+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 101 @Florida Atlantic L 59 - 82 29% -11  2 - 2 -15 -5 C D F -12 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 238 Stony Brook W 86 - 58 74% +17  3 - 2 +24 +15 A+ F+ F +10 A+ B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 285 Jacksonville W 68 - 53 82% +7  4 - 2 +8 +3 D- C+ C- +7 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 294 Sacramento St. W 68 - 54 88% +6  5 - 2 +3 -11 D+ D F +15 A+ A C
 Wed, Dec 3 347 @Air Force W 80 - 65 85% +9  6 - 2 +6 +18 C+ A+ A- -9 C- D- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 69 @California L 61 - 67 20% -9  6 - 3 +5 +4 C B D- +0 C B- C
 Tue, Dec 16 14 @BYU L 57 - 93 5% -18  6 - 4 -14 -8 D+ B+ F -6 B C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 255 Nicholls St. W 95 - 82 84% +7  7 - 4 +5 +16 A+ A+ F -11 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 28 208 @San Diego L 54 - 66 58% -9  7 - 5 0 - 1 -12 -14 F+ F F +1 A+ D F+
 Tue, Dec 30 162 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 80 48% +1  7 - 6 0 - 2 -6 +3 D C+ D+ -9 F+ A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 182 Oregon St. W 84 - 53 75% +17  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +19 A+ B- D+ +12 A+ C C+
 Sun, Jan 4 281 Pepperdine W 74 - 69 87% +3  9 - 6 2 - 2 -5 +2 B A+ F -7 C- B- D
 Thu, Jan 8 218 @Portland L 89 - 90 OT 60% -4  9 - 7 2 - 3 -1 +13 C+ C+ B+ -14 D F C
 Sat, Jan 10 208 San Diego W 77 - 70 78% -6  10 - 7 3 - 3 +1 +1 F D+ B+ +0 B- B+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 50 @Santa Clara L 69 - 85 14% -4  10 - 8 3 - 4 -2 +7 A+ B F -10 C+ C F
 Sat, Jan 17 182 @Oregon St. W 81 - 64 54% +6  11 - 8 4 - 4 +18 +19 A+ C B+ +2 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 124 Seattle W 56 - 54 62% +8  12 - 8 5 - 4 +1 -5 C C- D +6 C+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 218 Portland W 74 - 51 79% +15  13 - 8 6 - 4 +17 +6 B- A+ D +13 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 98 @San Francisco L 67 - 73 29%
 Wed, Feb 4 50 Santa Clara L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 281 @Pepperdine W 72 - 66 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 162 Loyola Marymount W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 42 St. Mary's L 65 - 72 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 131 @Washington St. L 72 - 74 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 11 @Gonzaga L 64 - 84 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 98 San Francisco W 70 - 69 51%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +1 B- C+ D- +1 B- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.5 9.5 19.6 11.6 2.4 0.1 43.8 4th
5th 0.1 5.0 14.1 4.2 0.1 23.6 5th
6th 1.2 9.9 4.5 0.2 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 4.7 0.4 9.0 7th
8th 0.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.5 8.2 20.7 28.5 24.2 12.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.6% 0.6
12-6 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
11-7 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4
10-8 24.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 24.1
9-9 28.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 28.5
8-10 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 20.7
7-11 8.2% 8.2
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%