Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #290
Pace 68.8 #179
Improvement +0.0 #181

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #317 C- D D- C D
Defense #173 C- C C C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #333 1.25 #84 -2.5 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #64 0.75 #194 +2.2 #70
Three Pointers 42% #171 0.92 #301 -1.8 #245
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #238 -2.1 #238
Freethrows 0.30 #198 72% #191 0.22 #192
Second Chance 23.5% #343 1.10 #111 0.26 #301
Turnovers 19.6% #341
Total Offense -5.6 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.15 #159 +1.7 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #85 0.87 #332 -2.5 #341
Three Pointers 41% #198 1.07 #252 -0.7 #212
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #226 -1.6 #226
Freethrows 0.30 #176 72% #174 0.22 #173
Second Chance 30.8% #191 1.01 #125 0.31 #154
Turnovers 16.6% #167
Total Defense -0.3 #173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #324 -1.1% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.5% #201 4.2% #259
Possession Length 18.0 #241 15.4 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.22 #326
Improvement -0.9 #232 +1.0 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 89.9% 78.3% 91.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 12.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 70 - 9
Quad 33 - 133 - 22
Quad 42 - 25 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 8 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  0 - 1 -8 -7 F A+ C+ -5 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 142 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 35% -8  0 - 2 -7 -2 B- D- D+ -5 D A C
 Tue, Nov 18 157 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 38% -3  0 - 3 -11 +7 C A+ C -18 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 182 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 34% +4  1 - 3 +2 +1 C- C+ F+ +1 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 62 Akron L 59 - 97 9% -13  1 - 4 -29 -13 D- B F -16 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 160 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 28% -12  1 - 5 -19 -14 F F C- -5 D C C
 Wed, Dec 3 295 Ball St. W 64 - 52 68% +1  2 - 5 +1 -11 D F F +13 B+ A A
 Sat, Dec 6 166 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 21% -3  2 - 6 +1 +6 B- B- D- -4 F+ A- A
 Sat, Dec 13 81 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 8% -11  2 - 7 -14 -7 B- D F -8 D- A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 78 Belmont L 78 - 83 17% -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -1 -1 C D- C+ +0 B+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 152 Drake L 65 - 66 37% -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -4 -4 F B+ F+ +1 C C A-
 Mon, Dec 29 127 @Bradley L 68 - 76 15% +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -3 -1 D- C+ A- -2 C+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 88 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -17 -21 F F+ F +5 C+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 114 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 27% -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -14 -15 C- F F -0 D- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 103 Murray St. L 69 - 79 23% -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -8 -7 B- F F -1 B C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 196 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 26% +0  3 - 13 1 - 6 +4 -2 B+ F F +6 A+ D D-
 Tue, Jan 13 127 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 32% +3  3 - 14 1 - 7 -5 +9 A- C C -14 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 138 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 17% -13  3 - 15 1 - 8 -23 -19 F F F -5 D- C D-
 Wed, Jan 28 152 @Drake L 78 - 82 19% +6  3 - 16 1 - 9 -1 +11 A+ F C- -11 C- C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 114 @Northern Iowa L 56 - 68 13%
 Tue, Feb 3 196 Indiana St. L 73 - 74 47%
 Fri, Feb 6 167 @Valparaiso L 64 - 72 21%
 Mon, Feb 9 88 Illinois St. L 65 - 74 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 134 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 76 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 138 Illinois-Chicago L 68 - 72 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 103 @Murray St. L 72 - 86 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 78 @Belmont L 67 - 83 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 Valparaiso L 67 - 69 42%
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 16 -6 -6 C- D D- +0 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.2 6.8 6.2 2.1 0.1 18.7 10th
11th 10.2 25.0 26.7 14.1 2.7 0.2 78.8 11th
Total 10.2 25.3 29.8 20.9 9.6 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
5-15 9.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-16 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.9
3-17 29.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.8
2-18 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.3
1-19 10.2% 10.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.4%