Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#275
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#268
Pace67.6#233
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#300
First Shot-3.5#277
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#265
Layup/Dunks-1.1#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#301
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement-0.8#246

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#211
First Shot-2.2#248
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#116
Layups/Dunks+5.6#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#336
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+1.0#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 9.8% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 52.9% 35.5% 56.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 18.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 104 - 20
Quad 43 - 37 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 7 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -7.4 -6.2 -5.4
  Wed, Nov 12 157 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 38%     0 - 2 -7.8 -3.6 -4.2
  Tue, Nov 18 176 Texas Arlington L 76-84 43%     0 - 3 -12.1 +5.0 -17.4
  Fri, Nov 21 159 Oregon St. W 73-69 28%     1 - 3 +4.2 +2.8 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 23 65 Akron L 59-97 10%     1 - 4 -29.6 -14.8 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 170 College of Charleston L 59-78 31%     1 - 5 -19.8 -15.0 -4.7
  Wed, Dec 3 306 Ball St. W 64-52 69%     2 - 5 +0.9 -10.0 +11.4
  Sat, Dec 6 147 @Western Kentucky L 79-80 18%     2 - 6 +2.8 +5.3 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 13 55 @Notre Dame L 58-82 5%     2 - 7 -11.3 -5.8 -6.8
  Tue, Dec 16 85 Belmont L 70-80 18%    
  Sun, Dec 21 136 Drake L 67-72 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 116 @Bradley L 63-75 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 90 @Illinois St. L 63-78 8%    
  Sun, Jan 4 93 Northern Iowa L 59-68 21%    
  Wed, Jan 7 99 Murray St. L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 181 @Indiana St. L 68-76 24%    
  Tue, Jan 13 116 Bradley L 66-72 28%    
  Tue, Jan 20 189 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-75 26%    
  Sun, Jan 25 129 Southern Illinois L 70-75 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 136 @Drake L 64-75 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 93 @Northern Iowa L 56-71 10%    
  Tue, Feb 3 181 Indiana St. L 71-73 45%    
  Fri, Feb 6 213 @Valparaiso L 65-71 31%    
  Mon, Feb 9 90 Illinois St. L 66-75 22%    
  Thu, Feb 12 129 @Southern Illinois L 67-78 17%    
  Wed, Feb 18 189 Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 99 @Murray St. L 71-85 11%    
  Wed, Feb 25 85 @Belmont L 67-83 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 213 Valparaiso W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.9 3.8 0.9 0.1 15.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.6 7.9 4.5 1.0 0.1 23.7 10th
11th 1.6 5.6 9.3 11.5 8.2 3.7 0.7 0.1 40.8 11th
Total 1.6 5.6 9.9 14.6 15.8 15.5 13.0 9.4 6.4 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 30.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 8.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 5.2% 5.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.2
10-10 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-11 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-13 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.4
6-14 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-15 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.5
4-16 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-17 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
2-18 9.9% 9.9
1-19 5.6% 5.6
0-20 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%