Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.2 #27
Expected Predictive Rating +15.2 #31
Pace 70.0 #151
Improvement -2.3 #292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #43 B- A- B B- C+
Defense #22 B+ B+ C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.30 #43 +4.2 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #222 0.70 #272 -1.5 #260
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.04 #156 +0.6 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #80 +3.3 #80
Freethrows 0.33 #99 74% #129 0.24 #94
Second Chance 35.8% #47 1.21 #25 0.43 #23
Turnovers 14.4% #66
Total Offense +7.5 #43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.05 #58 +5.2 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #47 0.70 #92 -1.3 #289
Three Pointers 42% #163 0.89 #38 +2.3 #101
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #29 +6.2 #28
Freethrows 0.28 #98 74% #263 0.20 #127
Second Chance 26.4% #49 0.88 #18 0.23 #18
Turnovers 17.4% #114
Total Defense +7.7 #22

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #126 -2.1% #30
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #86 -10.3% #32
Possession Length 15.4 #30 18.9 #347
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.32 #3 0.10 #21
Improvement -1.7 #277 -0.6 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.9% 14.5% 4.7%
Top 6 Seed 37.7% 55.8% 29.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.6% 96.7% 84.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.0% 96.5% 84.1%
Average Seed 7.1 6.3 7.5
.500 or above 98.4% 99.8% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 91.6% 71.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 5.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.9% 2.7% 8.8%
First Round85.8% 95.5% 81.1%
Second Round56.1% 66.4% 51.1%
Sweet Sixteen19.6% 25.6% 16.8%
Elite Eight7.1% 9.9% 5.7%
Final Four2.3% 3.4% 1.8%
Championship Game0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 212 - 13
Quad 31 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 255 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 97% +15  1 - 0 +18 +0 C F B+ +17 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 167 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 95% +31  2 - 0 +44 +27 A+ C- A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 19 @Louisville L 88 - 96 30% -8  2 - 1 +12 +16 A A+ C -3 A- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 312 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  3 - 1 +34 +28 A+ A+ C- +8 B A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 7 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 30% -11  3 - 2 +4 +5 C- C+ A -1 D A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 317 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  4 - 2 +30 +6 C C+ B- +23 A+ A- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 338 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  5 - 2 +36 +21 A+ A+ B- +13 A+ B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 2 28 North Carolina L 64 - 67 63% +2  5 - 3 +9 +1 C D+ C+ +7 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 11 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 33% -21  5 - 4 -15 -5 F A- A+ -10 F+ B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 9 343 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  6 - 4 +21 +20 A+ B A- +0 C B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 31 Indiana W 72 - 60 64% -0  7 - 4 +24 +6 F+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 18 St. John's W 78 - 66 41% +3  8 - 4 +29 +14 B- A+ D+ +16 A+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 23 303 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 98% +8  9 - 4 +3 +19 A+ A- C -16 C F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 16 @Alabama L 74 - 89 29% -11  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 +6 C A D+ -0 C B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 56 Missouri L 68 - 73 78% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +2 -1 C C- D+ +3 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 73 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 83% +4  10 - 6 1 - 2 +29 +24 A+ A+ C+ +5 C+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 14 47 @LSU W 75 - 74 54% -8  11 - 6 2 - 2 +15 +11 C+ B+ B +4 D+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 20 @Tennessee W 80 - 78 31% -7  12 - 6 3 - 2 +22 +26 A- A+ A -3 F A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 33 Texas W 85 - 80 65% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +16 +15 B- B+ A- +2 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 64 Mississippi W 72 - 63 81% +3  14 - 6 5 - 2 +15 +6 F A+ C +9 A+ B- B
 Tue, Jan 27 12 @Vanderbilt L 55 - 80 25% -18  14 - 7 5 - 3 -3 -8 F C+ D +5 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 21 @Arkansas L 79 - 84 32%
 Wed, Feb 4 54 Oklahoma W 81 - 73 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 20 Tennessee W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 5 @Florida L 72 - 81 20%
 Tue, Feb 17 29 Georgia W 85 - 82 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 25 @Auburn L 77 - 80 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 90 @South Carolina W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 12 Vanderbilt L 78 - 79 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 30 @Texas A&M L 79 - 81 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 5 Florida L 75 - 78 39%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +15 +7 B- A- B +8 B+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 2.0 0.3 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.1 0.7 6.0 3rd
4th 0.3 4.8 3.3 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 7.5 0.8 10.8 5th
6th 0.6 7.3 4.1 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 8.9 0.9 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 7.9 4.0 0.1 13.4 8th
9th 0.3 4.9 6.0 0.7 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.6 1.6 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.5 2.5 1.8 0.1 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.9 14.0 20.2 23.5 18.6 10.5 4.1 1.2 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 76.5% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 32.4% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.1% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.5% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 5.1 0.0 0.6 2.1 4.3 2.7 0.8 0.0 100.0%
11-7 18.6% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 6.9 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-8 23.5% 99.3% 3.5% 95.9% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.8 8.5 5.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.3%
9-9 20.2% 94.3% 2.6% 91.7% 8.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 4.7 5.5 3.4 0.9 1.2 94.1%
8-10 14.0% 72.1% 1.2% 70.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 3.2 4.4 0.1 3.9 71.7%
7-11 5.9% 26.3% 0.9% 25.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.3 25.7%
6-12 1.7% 3.8% 3.8% 11.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 3.8%
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.6% 4.5% 84.1% 7.1 11.4 88.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%