Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#117
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Pace70.9#147
Improvement+0.7#127

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#84
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#153
Layup/Dunks-0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#76
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement-0.8#245

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#183
First Shot-3.3#293
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#22
Layups/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+1.5#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 11.2% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 11.7 12.3
.500 or above 81.6% 93.8% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 83.5% 72.9%
Conference Champion 9.1% 13.9% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round7.7% 11.1% 7.1%
Second Round1.0% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 38 - 510 - 11
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 148 Boston College W 83-78 OT 70%     1 - 0 +2.7 +1.4 +0.7
  Sat, Nov 8 170 College of Charleston W 94-77 65%     2 - 0 +16.2 +23.8 -6.9
  Sun, Nov 9 109 @Liberty L 68-88 37%     2 - 1 -13.2 -0.4 -13.5
  Thu, Nov 20 128 Pacific W 82-59 66%     3 - 1 +22.1 +15.5 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 24 134 Loyola Marymount W 76-65 56%     4 - 1 +12.7 +13.2 +0.4
  Tue, Nov 25 77 George Mason L 65-74 33%     4 - 2 -1.3 +8.0 -11.0
  Sun, Nov 30 111 St. Bonaventure L 65-70 61%     4 - 3 -4.6 -2.6 -2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 185 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81-76 57%     5 - 3 +6.4 +8.3 -1.8
  Sat, Dec 13 328 Albany W 105-79 93%     6 - 3 +12.9 +10.5 -1.2
  Fri, Dec 19 39 @St. Mary's L 67-79 13%    
  Wed, Dec 31 286 Texas San Antonio W 83-70 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 206 @Tulane W 79-76 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 119 @UAB L 78-81 40%    
  Sun, Jan 11 75 Memphis L 77-78 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 100 Wichita St. W 74-73 55%    
  Sun, Jan 18 158 @Temple W 80-79 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 206 Tulane W 82-73 80%    
  Sun, Jan 25 86 @South Florida L 78-84 29%    
  Thu, Jan 29 75 @Memphis L 74-81 25%    
  Sun, Feb 1 280 East Carolina W 82-69 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 83 Tulsa L 78-79 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 208 @Rice W 76-73 62%    
  Sun, Feb 15 86 South Florida L 81-82 49%    
  Wed, Feb 18 286 @Texas San Antonio W 80-73 74%    
  Sun, Feb 22 145 @North Texas L 69-70 47%    
  Wed, Feb 25 158 Temple W 83-77 72%    
  Sun, Mar 1 194 Charlotte W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 100 @Wichita St. L 71-76 34%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 6.1 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.7 0.8 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.9 1.2 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.6 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.7 0.2 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.2 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.7 10.3 13.1 14.9 14.1 12.1 9.2 6.0 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 98.1% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 80.4% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.1
14-4 49.2% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.9% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 42.3% 23.1% 19.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.0%
17-1 0.4% 32.6% 27.1% 5.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 7.4%
16-2 1.2% 29.0% 27.6% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.9%
15-3 3.2% 23.2% 23.1% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 0.1%
14-4 6.0% 20.2% 20.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.1%
13-5 9.2% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 12.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.8 0.0%
12-6 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.7
11-7 14.1% 7.4% 7.4% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 13.0
10-8 14.9% 4.6% 4.6% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 14.2
9-9 13.1% 2.5% 2.5% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.8
8-10 10.3% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1
7-11 7.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
6-12 4.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 92.3 0.1%