Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #101
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #91
Pace 74.0 #54
Improvement +1.0 #140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #113 C+ B C- C C+
Defense #96 C+ B C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #149 1.19 #142 +1.2 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #217 1.00 #5 +1.3 #105
Three Pointers 42% #156 0.99 #221 +0.0 #180
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #109 +2.6 #109
Freethrows 0.30 #181 72% #186 0.22 #181
Second Chance 33.0% #109 1.19 #35 0.39 #46
Turnovers 17.0% #218
Total Offense +2.3 #113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.04 #53 -1.0 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #269 0.67 #47 +1.9 #51
Three Pointers 38% #279 1.05 #233 +1.3 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #117 +2.1 #117
Freethrows 0.32 #233 73% #199 0.23 #233
Second Chance 27.2% #64 0.99 #99 0.27 #63
Turnovers 17.2% #127
Total Defense +2.8 #96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #141 1.6% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #111 -5.6% #73
Possession Length 15.6 #38 17.6 #228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #67 0.16 #147
Improvement -2.8 #325 +3.7 #19

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.5% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 26.2% 39.7% 17.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.9% 15.5% 11.2%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 38.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 310 - 313 - 11
Quad 47 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 132 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 73% +2  1 - 0 +4 +3 A- D- C +0 B- F B
 Sat, Nov 8 160 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 69% +15  2 - 0 +17 +25 B A+ B+ -7 C A D-
 Sun, Nov 9 94 @Liberty L 68 - 88 37% -15  2 - 1 -11 -1 F A+ C- -11 D- C+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 123 Pacific W 82 - 59 71% +11  3 - 1 +22 +15 A+ D F +9 B A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 162 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 69% +7  4 - 1 +11 +12 A+ C+ F -0 B A- D
 Tue, Nov 25 86 George Mason L 65 - 74 44% -11  4 - 2 -2 +6 B D C- -10 F B+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 141 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 74% -2  4 - 3 -7 -6 F B F+ -1 F+ A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 232 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 72% -0  5 - 3 +4 +6 D- C D+ -2 C B- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 309 Albany W 105 - 79 93% +20  6 - 3 +14 +12 A+ F+ D -1 D+ A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 42 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 18% -10  6 - 4 +2 +4 C- B+ F -1 B- B B-
 Tue, Dec 23 49 Central Florida L 80 - 85 29% +1  6 - 5 +6 +4 C A+ C+ +2 C+ B+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 341 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 96% +27  7 - 5 1 - 0 +25 +17 A+ B+ D- +3 B+ B C+
 Sun, Jan 4 175 @Tulane L 66 - 69 63% +1  7 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -6 F+ B- F +4 B D+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 118 @UAB W 76 - 71 47% +7  8 - 6 2 - 1 +11 +2 F+ B C +9 A+ B- A-
 Sun, Jan 11 100 Memphis W 89 - 78 61% +8  9 - 6 3 - 1 +13 +12 A- A+ C +0 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 99 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 61% +15  10 - 6 4 - 1 +20 +13 A+ F+ D+ +7 A A+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 147 @Temple W 79 - 73 55% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 +10 -2 F A+ C +11 A C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 175 Tulane W 79 - 74 81% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +1 +2 B+ D- B -2 B- F+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 67 @South Florida L 75 - 89 27% -2  12 - 7 6 - 2 -3 +6 F+ A A -8 A F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 100 @Memphis L 73 - 76 38%
 Sun, Feb 1 262 East Carolina W 82 - 68 91%
 Wed, Feb 4 70 Tulsa W 82 - 81 50%
 Wed, Feb 11 230 @Rice W 78 - 72 71%
 Sun, Feb 15 67 South Florida L 82 - 83 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 341 @Texas San Antonio W 84 - 70 90%
 Sun, Feb 22 144 @North Texas W 69 - 68 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 147 Temple W 79 - 72 75%
 Sun, Mar 1 165 Charlotte W 79 - 70 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 99 @Wichita St. L 73 - 76 39%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 +5 +2 C+ B C- +3 C+ B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 6.0 11.9 6.4 1.4 26.2 1st
2nd 0.2 6.4 13.0 4.2 0.1 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 12.2 4.2 0.1 19.9 3rd
4th 0.8 7.6 4.5 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 4.9 0.3 8.0 5th
6th 0.6 3.5 0.9 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 8.3 17.0 23.8 23.3 16.2 6.5 1.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.4    1.4
15-3 97.9% 6.4    5.2 1.2 0.0
14-4 73.6% 11.9    5.7 5.1 1.1
13-5 25.9% 6.0    0.7 2.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 13.0 8.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.4% 25.8% 25.8% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.0
15-3 6.5% 23.2% 23.2% 11.6 0.6 0.8 0.0 5.0
14-4 16.2% 18.1% 18.1% 11.9 0.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.2
13-5 23.3% 15.5% 15.5% 12.1 0.4 2.5 0.7 19.7
12-6 23.8% 11.0% 11.0% 12.3 0.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 21.2
11-7 17.0% 8.3% 8.3% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 15.6
10-8 8.3% 4.5% 4.5% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.9
9-9 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
8-10 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 12.1 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.1 5.6 75.0 19.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%