George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.6 #86
Expected Predictive Rating +12.8 #43
Pace 63.1 #326
Improvement -2.7 #301

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #81 B- C B- A C
Defense #102 B- B+ C- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.30 #53 +3.5 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #150 0.78 #135 +0.8 #137
Three Pointers 38% #237 1.02 #182 -1.3 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #93 +3.0 #92
Freethrows 0.40 #5 73% #171 0.29 #7
Second Chance 31.8% #151 0.99 #249 0.31 #182
Turnovers 14.8% #82
Total Offense +4.1 #81

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.19 #220 +1.9 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #63 0.64 #21 -0.1 #191
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.99 #139 +0.5 #154
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #103 +2.4 #104
Freethrows 0.24 #31 73% #221 0.18 #36
Second Chance 26.1% #42 0.93 #44 0.24 #26
Turnovers 15.6% #225
Total Defense +2.5 #102

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #202 -1.6% #60
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #81 -3.2% #123
Possession Length 18.6 #305 17.9 #269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #202 0.15 #97
Improvement -1.1 #243 -1.6 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.9% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 3.0% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 98.4%
Conference Champion 4.8% 7.0% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 2.4% 1.2%
First Round8.2% 9.6% 6.2%
Second Round1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 310 - 214 - 7
Quad 410 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 211 Wofford W 70 - 46 88% +9  1 - 0 +18 -3 D+ C+ D- +22 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 126 Winthrop W 96 - 90 76% +0  2 - 0 +5 +13 A+ D+ D+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 320 New Hampshire W 61 - 44 95% +7  3 - 0 +4 -12 F C F+ +18 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 285 Jacksonville W 79 - 57 93% +12  4 - 0 +12 +8 A+ F F +5 B- B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 214 Ohio W 92 - 69 82% +20  5 - 0 +20 +21 A- B A+ -1 C D B-
 Tue, Nov 25 101 Florida Atlantic W 74 - 65 56% +11  6 - 0 +14 +17 A+ C- A+ -2 C A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 210 James Madison W 82 - 66 88% +1  7 - 0 +10 +8 A F+ D- +2 A- C+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 174 Cornell W 99 - 81 84% +5  8 - 0 +14 +14 A+ F+ D -1 D A C
 Sat, Dec 6 59 @Virginia Tech L 62 - 73 29% -10  8 - 1 +1 +1 C B F -0 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 222 Old Dominion W 73 - 61 89% +10  9 - 1 +5 -3 D D- C- +8 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 317 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 79 95% -1  10 - 1 -5 +10 D C+ A- -15 D+ F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 194 Penn W 83 - 79 86% +3  11 - 1 -1 +9 B- B+ A+ -10 F A- F
 Wed, Dec 31 202 @La Salle W 80 - 75 73% -5  12 - 1 1 - 0 +5 +17 D- A+ A+ -11 C- B F
 Sat, Jan 3 109 Rhode Island W 61 - 50 72% +4  13 - 1 2 - 0 +12 -2 C+ F+ A+ +15 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 195 @Fordham W 67 - 58 71% +1  14 - 1 3 - 0 +10 +5 C- C- C +6 B A D-
 Sat, Jan 10 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 86 - 80 47% +1  15 - 1 4 - 0 +13 +19 B+ A- A+ -5 C B- D
 Tue, Jan 13 280 @Loyola Chicago W 82 - 74 84% -3  16 - 1 5 - 0 +4 +15 C+ A+ C+ -10 F+ D F+
 Mon, Jan 19 65 George Washington W 69 - 64 54% +1  17 - 1 6 - 0 +11 -1 B C D+ +12 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 109 @Rhode Island L 65 - 74 50% -5  17 - 2 6 - 1 -2 +8 C C A+ -12 C+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 28 136 Davidson W 60 - 52 78% +3  18 - 2 7 - 1 +7 -0 B+ F F +8 A+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @St. Bonaventure W 73 - 71 59%
 Wed, Feb 4 122 Duquesne W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 139 Saint Joseph's W 74 - 66 78%
 Tue, Feb 10 117 @Richmond W 73 - 72 53%
 Fri, Feb 13 65 @George Washington L 74 - 79 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 85 Dayton W 71 - 68 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 139 @Saint Joseph's W 71 - 69 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 141 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 68 79%
 Tue, Mar 3 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71 - 78 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 26 Saint Louis L 72 - 78 30%
Totals 23 - 7 12 - 6 +7 +4 B- C B- +3 B- B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.4 4.8 1st
2nd 0.3 3.8 12.1 13.5 6.6 0.8 37.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 13.7 10.3 2.1 0.1 30.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 7.6 4.4 0.2 14.2 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 3.0 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.3 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.2 15.6 22.1 22.7 16.4 8.6 2.4 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2
16-2 66.3% 1.6    0.7 0.9 0.0
15-3 21.9% 1.9    0.6 1.2 0.1
14-4 5.1% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 44.2% 14.3% 29.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 34.8%
16-2 2.4% 36.9% 16.8% 20.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.5 24.1%
15-3 8.6% 20.3% 12.7% 7.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.1 6.9 8.7%
14-4 16.4% 13.3% 10.0% 3.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.1 14.2 3.7%
13-5 22.7% 8.6% 7.4% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.3 20.7 1.3%
12-6 22.1% 6.7% 6.3% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 20.6 0.4%
11-7 15.6% 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% 11.4 0.4 0.2 15.0 0.0%
10-8 8.2% 1.8% 1.8% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-9 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 2.8
8-10 0.7% 0.7
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 7.1% 2.2% 11.0 90.8 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 32.3% 10.4 6.5 6.5 19.4