Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.1 #5
Expected Predictive Rating +16.8 #25
Pace 73.0 #74
Improvement +4.3 #23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #15 B A+ C+ B A-
Defense #8 A- A+ C- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #28 1.35 #17 +8.3 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #346 0.94 #17 -2.8 #314
Three Pointers 44% #121 0.89 #333 -1.3 #226
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #67 +4.2 #67
Freethrows 0.36 #30 72% #204 0.26 #48
Second Chance 43.5% #2 1.11 #90 0.48 #5
Turnovers 15.5% #118
Total Offense +10.5 #15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 0.91 #5 +5.7 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #2 0.69 #79 -3.6 #360
Three Pointers 31% #363 0.98 #130 +5.7 #10
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #9 +7.8 #9
Freethrows 0.28 #96 71% #90 0.19 #84
Second Chance 20.6% #2 0.69 #2 0.14 #2
Turnovers 15.8% #216
Total Defense +10.6 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.5% #14 -3.4% #13
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.5% #103 -12.4% #13
Possession Length 15.6 #37 18.2 #305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #7 0.10 #23
Improvement +3.7 #22 +0.5 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 9.7% 12.1% 3.5%
Top 2 Seed 30.0% 35.6% 15.4%
Top 4 Seed 79.6% 84.7% 66.4%
Top 6 Seed 97.2% 98.6% 93.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 4.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 54.2% 63.2% 30.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round95.1% 96.1% 92.4%
Sweet Sixteen66.9% 69.4% 60.3%
Elite Eight36.9% 39.2% 31.1%
Final Four19.8% 21.2% 16.2%
Championship Game10.2% 11.0% 8.1%
National Champion4.8% 5.2% 3.6%

Next Game: Alabama (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 311 - 8
Quad 26 - 117 - 9
Quad 33 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 38% -1  0 - 1 +18 +14 A- B+ C +5 B+ A+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 348 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  1 - 1 +25 +5 F A+ F +15 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 105 Florida St. W 78 - 76 96% +1  2 - 1 +3 -5 C- F+ D +8 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 40 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 78% +7  3 - 1 +27 +8 B B B- +18 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 206 Merrimack W 80 - 45 99% +24  4 - 1 +29 +11 D+ A+ C +21 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 45 TCU L 80 - 84 82% +2  4 - 2 +8 +8 D+ A+ F -0 B B- D
 Fri, Nov 28 66 Providence W 90 - 78 88% +9  5 - 2 +20 +13 D+ A+ A +7 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66 - 67 30% -5  5 - 3 +26 +11 C+ A+ C +14 A- A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 10 Connecticut L 73 - 77 54% -2  5 - 4 +16 +14 A+ D B- +2 C A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 65 George Washington W 80 - 70 88% +8  6 - 4 +19 +7 A D+ C +11 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 354 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  7 - 4 +24 +18 A A+ D +4 B A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 213 Colgate W 90 - 60 99% +17  8 - 4 +24 +20 B+ A+ C+ +6 C A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 237 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 99% +21  9 - 4 +15 +12 C+ A+ F +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 56 @Missouri L 74 - 76 78% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +11 +8 C C A+ +3 C+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 29 Georgia W 92 - 77 81% +6  10 - 5 1 - 1 +27 +14 B+ A- B +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 20 Tennessee W 91 - 67 74% +10  11 - 5 2 - 1 +38 +20 A+ A+ A +17 A A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 54 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 78% +16  12 - 5 3 - 1 +30 +26 A- A+ A+ +4 C+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 12 @Vanderbilt W 98 - 94 46% +2  13 - 5 4 - 1 +26 +31 A+ A+ A+ -5 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 47 LSU W 79 - 61 88% +10  14 - 5 5 - 1 +26 +12 C A+ C +15 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 25 Auburn L 67 - 76 79% -8  14 - 6 5 - 2 +4 +2 C- C- B- +1 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 90 @South Carolina W 95 - 48 87% +24  15 - 6 6 - 2 +56 +27 A+ A+ C- +29 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Feb 1 16 Alabama W 90 - 84 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 30 @Texas A&M W 84 - 80 64%
 Wed, Feb 11 29 @Georgia W 86 - 83 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Kentucky W 81 - 72 80%
 Tue, Feb 17 90 South Carolina W 83 - 65 95%
 Sat, Feb 21 64 @Mississippi W 78 - 69 81%
 Wed, Feb 25 33 @Texas W 82 - 78 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 21 Arkansas W 87 - 80 74%
 Tue, Mar 3 73 Mississippi St. W 84 - 68 94%
 Sat, Mar 7 27 @Kentucky W 78 - 75 61%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +21 +11 B A+ C+ +11 A- A+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 8.3 20.3 18.6 6.5 54.2 1st
2nd 0.0 3.4 11.4 5.8 0.5 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.0 3.9 0.3 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 3.9 0.4 6.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 0.8 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.2 6.6 14.6 24.0 26.4 19.1 6.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.5    6.4 0.1
15-3 97.2% 18.6    15.5 2.9 0.1
14-4 77.0% 20.3    9.8 8.3 2.1 0.1
13-5 34.6% 8.3    1.2 3.2 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.2% 54.2 32.9 14.6 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.5% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 1.6 3.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-3 19.1% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 2.2 4.1 8.0 5.5 1.4 0.1 100.0%
14-4 26.4% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 3.0 1.8 6.8 10.2 6.1 1.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 24.0% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 3.6 0.5 2.5 7.9 8.7 3.7 0.7 100.0%
12-6 14.6% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 4.4 0.1 0.3 2.4 4.8 4.6 2.0 0.4 100.0%
11-7 6.6% 99.9% 15.8% 84.1% 5.2 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-8 2.2% 99.8% 10.7% 89.1% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.7%
9-9 0.4% 98.8% 7.5% 91.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.6%
8-10 0.1% 85.2% 18.5% 66.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 3.4 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 1.3 73.7 25.3 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 100.0% 1.7 40.6 50.2 8.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 100.0% 1.8 34.1 50.5 15.0 0.4