Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.5 #19
Expected Predictive Rating +14.7 #33
Pace 73.2 #68
Improvement -2.8 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #14 A B- B- B- B+
Defense #28 B+ B+ C+ B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 1.36 #13 +3.5 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #360 0.91 #25 -4.4 #354
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.15 #24 +10.7 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #4 +9.8 #4
Freethrows 0.31 #156 77% #27 0.24 #104
Second Chance 35.4% #49 1.05 #181 0.37 #76
Turnovers 15.2% #104
Total Offense +10.6 #14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.03 #37 +6.1 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #13 0.60 #10 -0.8 #241
Three Pointers 40% #213 0.98 #123 +1.3 #131
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #24 +6.6 #24
Freethrows 0.28 #105 71% #93 0.20 #97
Second Chance 25.0% #24 0.95 #60 0.24 #22
Turnovers 17.6% #104
Total Defense +6.9 #28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #17 -3.0% #16
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.4% #12 -10.3% #33
Possession Length 14.7 #10 18.9 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.07 #2
Improvement -2.7 #318 -0.1 #202

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 14.9% 18.2% 5.8%
Top 6 Seed 48.9% 55.4% 30.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.4% 97.9% 92.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.9% 97.6% 91.3%
Average Seed 6.5 6.2 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 97.2% 84.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.1% 4.4%
First Round95.6% 97.5% 90.4%
Second Round70.4% 73.8% 60.9%
Sweet Sixteen30.5% 33.3% 22.8%
Elite Eight13.4% 14.8% 9.5%
Final Four5.7% 6.2% 4.2%
Championship Game2.2% 2.5% 1.5%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 73.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 359 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100% +40  1 - 0 +41 +8 B+ C- F +24 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 337 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 99% +22  2 - 0 +22 +16 A- C B+ +2 D- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 27 Kentucky W 96 - 88 70% +8  3 - 0 +20 +21 A- B- A+ -2 C B- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 214 Ohio W 106 - 81 98% +14  4 - 0 +19 +22 A A+ B -5 D- A A+
 Fri, Nov 21 52 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 75% +1  5 - 0 +20 +10 B+ F B- +10 B- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 242 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 98% +20  6 - 0 +34 +16 A+ C A +19 A+ B+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 339 NJIT W 104 - 47 99% +31  7 - 0 +43 +28 A+ A+ C+ +16 A A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 21 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 40% -10  7 - 1 +11 +8 B- F A+ +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 31 Indiana W 87 - 78 61% +12  8 - 1 +24 +15 A+ F+ C- +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 100 Memphis W 99 - 73 92% +17  9 - 1 +28 +29 A+ A+ B- -1 A+ D- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 20 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 39% -11  9 - 2 -1 +0 B- C- F -1 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 161 Montana W 94 - 54 96% +17  10 - 2 +37 +14 A- A+ F+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 69 @California W 90 - 70 72% +16  11 - 2 1 - 0 +31 +22 A+ A- B +9 A+ A- D-
 Fri, Jan 2 84 @Stanford L 76 - 80 77% -3  11 - 3 1 - 1 +6 +16 C A+ C+ -10 C D- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 3 Duke L 73 - 84 38% +2  11 - 4 1 - 2 +10 +6 B+ B- B- +4 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 132 Boston College W 75 - 62 95% -1  12 - 4 2 - 2 +12 +6 A+ F F+ +6 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 22 Virginia L 70 - 79 64% -2  12 - 5 2 - 3 +5 +6 B+ D+ B+ -2 B+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 92 @Pittsburgh W 100 - 59 79% +27  13 - 5 3 - 3 +50 +38 A+ A+ A +15 A+ A C
 Sat, Jan 24 59 Virginia Tech W 85 - 71 85% +9  14 - 5 4 - 3 +20 +14 B+ A+ D +6 C A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 26 3 @Duke L 52 - 83 20% -12  14 - 6 4 - 4 -4 -4 C D+ B- -3 B- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 37 SMU W 86 - 79 74%
 Wed, Feb 4 81 Notre Dame W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 68 @Wake Forest W 83 - 77 72%
 Mon, Feb 9 24 North Carolina St. W 84 - 79 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 48 Baylor W 85 - 79 73%
 Tue, Feb 17 37 @SMU W 83 - 82 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 111 Georgia Tech W 88 - 71 94%
 Mon, Feb 23 28 @North Carolina L 82 - 83 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 32 @Clemson W 73 - 72 51%
 Tue, Mar 3 76 Syracuse W 85 - 72 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 40 @Miami (FL) W 81 - 79 56%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +17 +11 A B- B- +7 B+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.4 2.4 2.1 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 5.8 0.9 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 9.1 3.2 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.7 8.3 7.2 0.4 0.0 16.6 5th
6th 0.2 5.0 10.7 1.4 0.0 17.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 8.9 3.7 0.1 15.0 7th
8th 0.6 5.4 4.8 0.3 11.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.2 0.5 5.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.5 11.7 19.9 25.4 21.7 11.9 3.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 3.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 11.9% 99.9% 16.7% 83.2% 4.4 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 21.7% 99.9% 13.7% 86.2% 5.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 6.3 6.6 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 25.4% 99.4% 9.9% 89.4% 6.6 0.1 0.9 3.8 7.6 7.2 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.3%
10-8 19.9% 97.6% 7.7% 89.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 5.2 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 0.5 97.4%
9-9 11.7% 93.2% 4.4% 88.7% 8.6 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.1 0.7 0.8 92.8%
8-10 4.5% 75.2% 3.6% 71.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.1 74.3%
7-11 1.4% 40.4% 0.7% 39.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 39.9%
6-12 0.3% 22.0% 2.0% 20.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 20.4%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.4% 10.5% 85.8% 6.5 3.7 95.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.6 49.6 38.3 10.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 2.8 7.6 29.7 44.1 16.9 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 3.3 3.1 15.4 36.9 38.5 6.2