Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#10
Expected Predictive Rating+20.3#13
Pace74.7#52
Improvement+0.6#141

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#4
First Shot+12.7#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#201
Layup/Dunks+0.8#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.1#1
Freethrows+3.7#22
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#29
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#119
Layups/Dunks+3.5#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#100
Freethrows+0.9#128
Improvement+0.7#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 2.2% 0.8%
#1 Seed 10.4% 14.5% 6.5%
Top 2 Seed 28.3% 36.7% 20.3%
Top 4 Seed 67.0% 76.0% 58.5%
Top 6 Seed 88.1% 93.1% 83.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.6% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 99.5% 98.0%
Average Seed 3.9 3.4 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 97.9% 96.4%
Conference Champion 22.5% 26.0% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round98.7% 99.5% 98.0%
Second Round87.6% 91.1% 84.3%
Sweet Sixteen55.5% 61.4% 50.0%
Elite Eight27.9% 32.2% 23.9%
Final Four13.6% 16.1% 11.2%
Championship Game6.2% 7.4% 5.0%
National Champion2.6% 3.2% 2.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 27 - 116 - 7
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 46 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 360 South Carolina St. W 104-45 99.7%    1 - 0 +41.3 +9.0 +23.9
  Thu, Nov 6 315 Jackson St. W 106-70 99%     2 - 0 +23.9 +20.3 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 11 22 Kentucky W 96-88 73%     3 - 0 +20.6 +21.3 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 175 Ohio W 106-81 97%     4 - 0 +21.0 +21.0 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 78 Cincinnati W 74-64 85%     5 - 0 +17.5 +8.9 +8.5
  Mon, Nov 24 226 Eastern Michigan W 87-46 98%     6 - 0 +34.2 +15.7 +20.4
  Wed, Nov 26 352 NJIT W 104-47 99.6%    7 - 0 +41.1 +28.2 +13.7
  Wed, Dec 3 21 @Arkansas L 80-89 51%     7 - 1 +9.6 +9.2 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 6 27 Indiana W 87-78 65%     8 - 1 +23.8 +16.7 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 13 75 Memphis W 99-73 90%     9 - 1 +30.7 +27.1 +3.0
  Tue, Dec 16 18 @Tennessee L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Dec 20 205 Montana W 95-70 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 81 @California W 84-75 79%    
  Fri, Jan 2 92 @Stanford W 87-77 82%    
  Tue, Jan 6 2 Duke L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 148 Boston College W 86-65 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 26 Virginia W 84-77 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 107 @Pittsburgh W 83-71 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 63 Virginia Tech W 88-75 89%    
  Mon, Jan 26 2 @Duke L 75-82 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 38 SMU W 88-78 81%    
  Wed, Feb 4 55 Notre Dame W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 42 @Wake Forest W 84-80 65%    
  Mon, Feb 9 29 North Carolina St. W 88-80 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 32 Baylor W 88-82 69%    
  Tue, Feb 17 38 @SMU W 85-81 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 130 Georgia Tech W 88-68 96%    
  Mon, Feb 23 23 @North Carolina W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 35 @Clemson W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Mar 3 68 Syracuse W 86-72 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 33 @Miami (FL) W 83-80 59%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.5 7.3 3.7 0.9 22.5 1st
2nd 0.6 4.7 9.5 6.6 1.4 0.0 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 7.7 4.6 0.6 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.3 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.3 10.1 14.6 17.4 17.4 14.7 8.7 3.7 0.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.6% 3.7    3.4 0.3
16-2 83.7% 7.3    5.0 2.1 0.2
15-3 51.2% 7.5    3.1 3.4 0.9 0.1
14-4 15.9% 2.8    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 12.9 7.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.7% 100.0% 42.8% 57.2% 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.7% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.9 3.1 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.7% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.3 2.8 5.8 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.4% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 3.0 1.2 4.4 6.5 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.4% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.7 0.3 2.0 5.1 6.0 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.6% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 4.6 0.1 0.4 2.3 4.2 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.1% 99.8% 8.7% 91.1% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.9 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 6.3% 98.8% 6.0% 92.8% 6.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
9-9 3.4% 96.2% 4.8% 91.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 96.0%
8-10 1.8% 84.8% 2.7% 82.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 84.3%
7-11 0.8% 58.7% 3.5% 55.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 57.2%
6-12 0.2% 31.9% 1.4% 30.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 30.9%
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 20.2% 78.8% 3.9 10.4 17.9 21.0 17.8 12.7 8.4 4.8 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.0 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 66.7 25.9 7.4