Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #165
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #151
Pace 61.3 #351
Improvement +0.6 #157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #106 B C C- C B
Defense #271 C- C D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.28 #62 +3.2 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #331 0.67 #314 -3.6 #341
Three Pointers 48% #48 1.08 #92 +5.0 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #59 +4.6 #58
Freethrows 0.31 #150 73% #152 0.23 #176
Second Chance 33.9% #88 0.97 #284 0.33 #153
Turnovers 17.0% #217
Total Offense +2.5 #106

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.17 #201 -0.7 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #205 0.78 #226 +0.1 #172
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.04 #229 -0.7 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #221 -1.3 #221
Freethrows 0.33 #274 71% #118 0.23 #252
Second Chance 30.2% #165 1.09 #254 0.33 #219
Turnovers 14.2% #307
Total Defense -3.0 #271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #43 0.4% #202
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #76 2.2% #219
Possession Length 19.1 #333 18.4 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #266 0.16 #149
Improvement +1.5 #105 -0.9 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 61.1% 70.3% 37.3%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 95.9% 77.2%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.6% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 66 - 14
Quad 410 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 196 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 68% +9  1 - 0 +11 +18 A A+ B+ -7 C C- F+
 Fri, Nov 7 338 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 90% +9  2 - 0 -9 -4 C+ A- F -5 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 136 Davidson L 55 - 62 53% -10  2 - 1 -8 -6 F D B- -4 D A- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 59 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 12% -8  2 - 2 +4 +14 B- B+ A+ -10 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 200 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 47% +2  2 - 3 -2 +7 D+ B+ F+ -9 D D+ C-
 Thu, Nov 27 88 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 25% -10  2 - 4 -4 +5 A+ F F -9 C- C- F
 Fri, Nov 28 117 Richmond L 66 - 71 37% -8  2 - 5 -2 -2 C F B+ -0 C C B-
 Tue, Dec 2 293 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 83% +13  3 - 5 +7 +1 A- B+ F +7 A B B
 Sun, Dec 7 38 Utah St. L 53 - 79 15% -11  3 - 6 -16 -12 F A+ F -6 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 160 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 37% -4  3 - 7 -4 -2 C F+ D- -2 D D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 316 Lafayette W 81 - 67 86% +11  4 - 7 +2 +18 A+ D+ B- -13 D F+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 138 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 54% -9  5 - 7 +10 +14 C+ D- B -4 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 147 Temple L 73 - 76 57% -8  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 -0 C- D+ D+ -5 D- C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 99 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 40% -10  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +26 B+ A+ A- -20 F+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 341 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 78% +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +4 D+ C+ D+ +4 C+ C F+
 Sun, Jan 11 230 @Rice W 74 - 73 52% +3  8 - 8 3 - 1 +0 +6 A+ F F+ -5 C+ B D+
 Wed, Jan 14 70 Tulsa L 74 - 86 30% -10  8 - 9 3 - 2 -7 +3 B F A- -11 F A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 18 262 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 58% +7  9 - 9 4 - 2 +0 +6 A+ C F -5 C- C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 175 Tulane W 73 - 70 65% +5  10 - 9 5 - 2 -1 +0 A+ C F -1 C A- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 147 @Temple W 80 - 76 OT 34% -3  11 - 9 6 - 2 +8 +24 A+ A+ C+ -15 C F D
 Sat, Jan 31 230 Rice W 74 - 68 72%
 Wed, Feb 4 99 @Wichita St. L 66 - 75 21%
 Sun, Feb 8 100 @Memphis L 66 - 75 21%
 Sun, Feb 15 341 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 66 91%
 Wed, Feb 18 70 @Tulsa L 71 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 262 East Carolina W 75 - 67 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 144 North Texas W 65 - 64 56%
 Sun, Mar 1 101 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 79 21%
 Wed, Mar 4 118 UAB L 74 - 75 49%
 Sun, Mar 8 67 @South Florida L 72 - 84 13%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 +0 +3 B C C- -3 C- C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 7.0 1.3 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 9.9 3.8 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.3 7.8 8.7 0.4 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 3.8 11.7 2.0 0.0 17.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 8.6 5.1 0.1 14.6 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 5.7 0.5 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.7 7.5 19.1 26.6 23.5 14.6 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 74.6% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 23.4% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.2% 7.3% 7.3% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-5 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
12-6 14.6% 3.5% 3.5% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.1
11-7 23.5% 1.7% 1.7% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 23.1
10-8 26.6% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 26.4
9-9 19.1% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 19.0
8-10 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.4
7-11 1.7% 1.7
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.4 98.4 0.0%