East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #262
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #308
Pace 71.1 #117
Improvement +2.8 #66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #311 D- C C- C+ D+
Defense #171 C- D+ C C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.06 #297 -0.7 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #62 0.67 #303 +1.3 #107
Three Pointers 32% #338 0.85 #344 -7.2 #352
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #346 -6.5 #345
Freethrows 0.34 #69 70% #270 0.24 #118
Second Chance 32.9% #113 0.96 #296 0.32 #176
Turnovers 17.6% #259
Total Offense -5.4 #311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #238 1.14 #149 +1.5 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #146 0.80 #248 -0.8 #242
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.08 #272 -1.8 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #211 -1.1 #211
Freethrows 0.27 #76 74% #280 0.20 #112
Second Chance 28.9% #116 1.23 #350 0.36 #273
Turnovers 16.7% #161
Total Defense -0.2 #171

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #274 -0.5% #123
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.7% #342 2.6% #229
Possession Length 17.2 #153 16.6 #64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #223 0.22 #327
Improvement +1.4 #115 +1.4 #96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 1.6% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 4.0% 12.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 9.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 46 - 69 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 245 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 58% +2  1 - 0 -5 +2 D- A+ B+ -7 D+ F B
 Sat, Nov 8 117 @Richmond L 72 - 87 14% -10  1 - 1 -9 -3 D D+ C- -6 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 121 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 15% -12  1 - 2 -19 -7 F+ D+ C- -13 F C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 234 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 56% -7  1 - 3 -19 -11 D- B- D- -8 D- B F
 Tue, Nov 25 7 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -12 -5 C+ C F -6 D C D+
 Thu, Nov 27 141 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 26% -2  1 - 5 -8 -17 F F F +9 B+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 2 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 78% +5  2 - 5 -2 +3 A- D+ C- -3 D C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 305 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 72% -2  2 - 6 -15 -3 F A+ F -13 C+ F C
 Thu, Dec 11 200 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 50% -9  2 - 7 -19 -16 F D+ C -3 D F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 185 Buffalo W 73 - 70 47% -8  3 - 7 -2 -4 F B A+ +2 A- D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 269 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 63% +10  4 - 7 +12 -1 B D+ F +14 A+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 28 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  4 - 8 -30 -19 F D F -7 F+ C- B
 Wed, Dec 31 175 Tulane L 70 - 79 45% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -1 D D- A+ -13 D- F A
 Wed, Jan 7 147 @Temple L 67 - 75 19% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 -0 B- D+ D- -4 A- F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 118 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 30% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -2 -2 D+ B- F+ -0 C+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 14 67 @South Florida L 71 - 82 7% -11  4 - 12 0 - 4 +0 -1 D C A +2 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 165 Charlotte L 70 - 73 42% -7  4 - 13 0 - 5 -6 -3 D- C- A+ -4 F C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 99 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 11% -14  4 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -4 F D A+ -6 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 144 @North Texas W 63 - 59 18% +3  5 - 14 1 - 6 +8 +3 D+ A+ F +5 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 230 Rice L 77 - 83 55% -7  5 - 15 1 - 7 -13 -1 F+ C+ B+ -12 F D- C
 Sun, Feb 1 101 @Florida Atlantic L 68 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 7 147 Temple L 70 - 73 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 341 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 230 @Rice L 69 - 74 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 99 Wichita St. L 67 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 165 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 341 @Texas San Antonio W 75 - 72 61%
 Sun, Mar 1 100 Memphis L 67 - 75 24%
 Thu, Mar 5 70 Tulsa L 72 - 83 16%
 Sun, Mar 8 118 @UAB L 69 - 80 15%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 14 -6 -5 D- C C- +0 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 4.5 2.6 0.2 9.3 10th
11th 0.4 4.7 10.0 5.5 0.7 21.3 11th
12th 7.0 20.1 21.7 10.4 1.5 0.0 60.7 12th
13th 1.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 5.1 13th
Total 1.7 9.6 21.2 26.5 22.2 12.0 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.3% 0.3
8-10 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
7-11 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 22.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.2
4-14 26.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.5
3-15 21.2% 21.2
2-16 9.6% 9.6
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%