Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.7 #95
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #132
Pace 72.5 #84
Improvement +3.2 #54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 C+ C- B+ C A
Defense #88 C+ C B+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #10 1.18 #152 +5.9 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #359 0.73 #210 -5.0 #361
Three Pointers 45% #114 0.95 #272 +0.2 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.1 #144
Freethrows 0.32 #122 68% #308 0.22 #182
Second Chance 32.0% #142 0.95 #311 0.30 #210
Turnovers 13.1% #19
Total Offense +2.6 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.16 #182 -1.2 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.72 #108 +0.3 #164
Three Pointers 39% #251 0.96 #102 +2.3 #102
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #133 +1.3 #133
Freethrows 0.26 #59 75% #329 0.20 #95
Second Chance 30.5% #174 1.03 #153 0.31 #168
Turnovers 19.5% #39
Total Defense +3.1 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.6% #4 0.2% #183
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.4% #210 -2.9% #126
Possession Length 14.9 #16 18.9 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.15 #122
Improvement +2.8 #49 +0.4 #164

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 13.8
.500 or above 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 2.0% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.7% 29.8% 53.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 64 - 18
Quad 32 - 37 - 21
Quad 45 - 011 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 316 Albany W 80 - 53 94% +13  1 - 0 +15 -6 C- F F +18 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 5 256 Southern W 100 - 82 90% +9  2 - 0 +10 +13 A- C A+ -6 D C+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 31 Indiana L 77 - 100 20% -12  2 - 1 -8 +4 F A+ D -11 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 281 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 92% +18  3 - 1 +30 +16 A- D- A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 106 Maryland L 82 - 89 66% -3  3 - 2 -6 +3 F A+ B -8 F B C
 Wed, Nov 19 84 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 58% -5  3 - 3 -2 -7 D D+ D+ +5 D- C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 303 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 93% +5  4 - 3 +3 +5 B+ F B+ -3 C+ A- D
 Fri, Nov 28 54 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 33% +4  4 - 4 +9 +12 B+ D- A+ -3 C D+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 167 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 81% -2  5 - 4 -1 -5 D- D- C- +4 D C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 39 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 16% -12  5 - 5 -4 +2 B F A+ -3 D A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 9 @Purdue L 59 - 79 6% -16  5 - 6 +3 -1 F+ A D+ +3 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 89 Georgetown L 69 - 78 59% -2  5 - 7 0 - 1 -6 +3 D A- A+ -10 C F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 55 @Creighton L 63 - 84 24% -14  5 - 8 0 - 2 -8 -11 F D- C +5 B- C+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 53 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 44% +2  5 - 9 0 - 3 +1 +7 C C- A+ -6 A- F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 10 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 6% -11  5 - 10 0 - 4 +7 -2 D+ D+ B+ +9 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 82 Xavier W 66 - 65 57% +5  6 - 10 1 - 4 +5 -6 F+ A F+ +11 B A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 36 Villanova L 73 - 76 31% -3  6 - 11 1 - 5 +8 +13 A D+ A+ -5 D B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 19 @St. John's L 68 - 92 9% -9  6 - 12 1 - 6 -3 +0 A+ F F -2 C C B
 Fri, Jan 16 96 @DePaul L 75 - 80 39% +1  6 - 13 1 - 7 +4 +15 A+ F A+ -11 C+ F F+
 Mon, Jan 19 66 Providence W 105 - 104 OT 51% +3  7 - 13 2 - 7 +6 +16 A- A- A+ -9 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 61 @Butler L 76 - 87 27% -5  7 - 14 2 - 8 +1 +7 B+ A- D- -6 B- D C+
 Tue, Jan 27 55 Creighton W 86 - 62 45% +17  8 - 14 3 - 8 +31 +16 A+ C A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 53 @Seton Hall L 65 - 73 24%
 Sat, Feb 7 61 Butler L 79 - 80 48%
 Tue, Feb 10 36 @Villanova L 66 - 77 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 82 @Xavier L 77 - 81 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 19 St. John's L 75 - 84 21%
 Tue, Feb 24 89 @Georgetown L 73 - 77 35%
 Sun, Mar 1 96 DePaul W 75 - 72 61%
 Wed, Mar 4 66 @Providence L 83 - 89 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 10 Connecticut L 67 - 78 15%
Totals 11 - 20 6 - 14 +6 +3 C+ C- B+ +3 C+ C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.8 5th
6th 0.5 3.6 1.7 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.6 4.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.2 4.1 7.9 1.0 0.0 13.3 8th
9th 0.0 3.0 11.7 3.9 0.1 18.7 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 12.0 8.2 0.4 23.0 10th
11th 3.8 12.3 10.2 1.2 0.0 27.4 11th
Total 3.8 14.7 25.4 25.5 17.4 9.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 3.2% 4.0% 4.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
8-12 9.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 9.4
7-13 17.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 17.4
6-14 25.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.1 0.0 25.4
5-15 25.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 25.3
4-16 14.7% 14.7
3-17 3.8% 3.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.8 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%