Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#88
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#181
Pace73.5#68
Improvement-1.3#267

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#120
First Shot+2.8#100
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#233
Layup/Dunks+4.4#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
Freethrows+3.0#36
Improvement-1.2#272

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#69
First Shot+1.5#120
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#38
Layups/Dunks-0.8#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
Freethrows+2.4#51
Improvement-0.1#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 1.9% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.1
.500 or above 13.2% 17.3% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.8% 26.3% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 12.9% 32.5%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 2.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 24 - 65 - 17
Quad 33 - 28 - 20
Quad 45 - 013 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Albany W 80-53 95%     1 - 0 +13.9 -6.8 +18.4
  Wed, Nov 5 203 Southern W 100-82 86%     2 - 0 +12.2 +14.1 -4.0
  Sun, Nov 9 27 Indiana L 77-100 20%     2 - 1 -8.2 +5.9 -12.4
  Wed, Nov 12 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-49 94%     3 - 1 +28.0 +14.5 +15.3
  Sat, Nov 15 94 Maryland L 82-89 63%     3 - 2 -4.5 +2.8 -6.6
  Wed, Nov 19 73 Dayton L 71-77 OT 54%     3 - 3 -1.1 -7.8 +7.4
  Sat, Nov 22 323 Central Michigan W 85-71 95%     4 - 3 +1.3 +3.9 -2.8
  Fri, Nov 28 44 Oklahoma L 74-75 30%     4 - 4 +10.3 +12.0 -1.7
  Tue, Dec 2 213 Valparaiso W 75-72 OT 87%     5 - 4 -3.3 -5.8 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 40 @Wisconsin L 76-96 20%     5 - 5 -5.1 +1.7 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 13 7 @Purdue L 59-79 6%     5 - 6 +3.6 -0.5 +2.6
  Wed, Dec 17 101 Georgetown W 78-74 65%    
  Sat, Dec 20 59 @Creighton L 71-77 27%    
  Tue, Dec 30 56 Seton Hall L 70-71 48%    
  Sun, Jan 4 6 @Connecticut L 62-80 5%    
  Wed, Jan 7 76 Xavier W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 36 Villanova L 69-73 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 16 @St. John's L 71-85 9%    
  Fri, Jan 16 113 @DePaul L 72-73 48%    
  Mon, Jan 19 69 Providence W 83-82 54%    
  Fri, Jan 23 54 @Butler L 76-83 26%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 Creighton L 73-74 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 56 @Seton Hall L 67-74 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 54 Butler L 79-80 46%    
  Tue, Feb 10 36 @Villanova L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 76 @Xavier L 73-78 33%    
  Wed, Feb 18 16 St. John's L 74-82 23%    
  Tue, Feb 24 101 @Georgetown L 75-77 43%    
  Sun, Mar 1 113 DePaul W 76-70 68%    
  Wed, Mar 4 69 @Providence L 80-85 32%    
  Sat, Mar 7 6 Connecticut L 65-77 14%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.4 8.3 11.2 13.3 14.6 13.6 11.2 8.6 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 53.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 89.3% 14.3% 75.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
15-5 0.3% 63.2% 6.9% 56.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 60.5%
14-6 0.8% 57.5% 7.9% 49.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 53.9%
13-7 1.7% 27.6% 4.6% 23.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3 24.1%
12-8 3.4% 11.0% 2.3% 8.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 9.0%
11-9 5.8% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 0.7%
10-10 8.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.0%
9-11 11.2% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1
8-12 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5
7-13 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 14.5
6-14 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.3
5-15 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-16 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
3-17 4.4% 4.4
2-18 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.9 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%