Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#325
Expected Predictive Rating-12.4#331
Pace66.6#261
Improvement-1.1#260

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#328
First Shot-6.5#344
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#128
Layup/Dunks+2.7#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#313
Freethrows-3.9#351
Improvement-1.1#278

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#312
First Shot-4.3#318
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#174
Layups/Dunks-2.9#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#357
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.6% 4.9% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 38.6% 17.3%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 17.2% 8.2% 22.5%
First Four1.3% 2.0% 1.0%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 48 - 129 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 233 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-92 20%     0 - 1 -21.1 -1.6 -19.7
  Wed, Nov 12 99 @Marquette L 49-89 6%     0 - 2 -32.0 -17.0 -16.9
  Sat, Nov 15 307 @Ball St. W 68-62 33%     1 - 2 +0.7 -3.0 +3.9
  Tue, Nov 18 97 @Murray St. L 68-89 6%     1 - 3 -13.0 +0.5 -14.6
  Fri, Nov 21 260 @Texas St. L 56-65 24%     1 - 4 -11.5 -11.9 -0.4
  Sat, Nov 29 129 @Southern Illinois L 65-74 9%     1 - 5 -4.1 +1.2 -6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 286 @Central Arkansas L 47-85 28%     1 - 6 -41.7 -26.5 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 6 141 Arkansas St. L 78-90 22%     1 - 7 -13.8 +1.9 -15.4
  Tue, Dec 9 68 @West Virginia L 58-90 4%     1 - 8 -20.7 -1.5 -22.9
  Tue, Dec 16 310 @Morehead St. L 64-78 35%     1 - 9 0 - 1 -19.7 -14.6 -4.3
  Thu, Dec 18 318 @Southern Indiana L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 261 Tennessee Tech L 72-73 46%    
  Sat, Jan 3 230 Tennessee St. L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Jan 8 234 @SIU Edwardsville L 63-72 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 228 @Lindenwood L 69-78 21%    
  Thu, Jan 15 330 Eastern Illinois W 70-66 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 355 Western Illinois W 71-64 73%    
  Thu, Jan 22 213 @Southeast Missouri St. L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 251 @Tennessee Martin L 64-72 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 230 @Tennessee St. L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 261 @Tennessee Tech L 69-76 26%    
  Thu, Feb 5 228 Lindenwood L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 234 SIU Edwardsville L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 355 @Western Illinois W 68-67 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 330 @Eastern Illinois L 67-69 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 251 Tennessee Martin L 67-69 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 213 Southeast Missouri St. L 71-74 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 310 Morehead St. W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 318 Southern Indiana W 73-71 58%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.5 0.2 5.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.6 0.9 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.2 5.7 1.6 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.0 5.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.5 4.2 1.4 0.1 15.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.7 3.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.0 9.9 12.5 13.6 13.8 12.2 9.7 7.0 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 82.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 69.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 43.1% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-7 11.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 12.0% 12.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 30.1% 30.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.4
14-6 1.2% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.0
13-7 2.5% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.3 2.2
12-8 4.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.3 3.8
11-9 7.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 6.7
10-10 9.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.5
9-11 12.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.1
8-12 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
7-13 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.6
6-14 12.5% 12.5
5-15 9.9% 9.9
4-16 7.0% 7.0
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%