Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.6 #292
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 #287
Pace 66.5 #240
Improvement +4.7 #21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #262 D+ C- D F+ D-
Defense #294 F D+ B C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.23 #98 -0.9 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #16 0.57 #358 +1.2 #109
Three Pointers 34% #324 1.03 #170 -3.6 #306
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #277 -3.3 #277
Freethrows 0.25 #334 66% #343 0.17 #354
Second Chance 30.6% #184 0.95 #287 0.29 #233
Turnovers 19.5% #320
Total Offense -3.5 #262

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #153 1.35 #355 -4.5 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #358 0.81 #281 +2.7 #13
Three Pointers 47% #33 1.20 #358 -7.5 #360
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #365 -9.3 #365
Freethrows 0.30 #156 71% #124 0.21 #144
Second Chance 36.7% #349 0.95 #79 0.35 #272
Turnovers 19.6% #48
Total Defense -4.1 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #344 2.1% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.3% #229 16.1% #363
Possession Length 18.3 #290 16.7 #94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #109 0.24 #348
Improvement +3.0 #50 +1.6 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 8.2% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.2% 15.7% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.1% 92.6% 71.4%
Conference Champion 2.5% 8.9% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 4.8% 3.0%
First Round3.0% 5.4% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 411 - 1012 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 30% -7  0 - 1 -22 -2 D+ B- F -20 F F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 95 @Marquette L 49 - 89 7% -18  0 - 2 -31 -17 F F F -16 F B D+
 Sat, Nov 15 296 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 40% +2  1 - 2 +1 -3 C A+ F +4 F+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 106 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 9% -16  1 - 3 -14 -1 F+ A- F -14 F+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 259 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 31% -5  1 - 4 -12 -11 F D F -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 137 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 13% -1  1 - 5 -5 +4 A- D+ F -10 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 219 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 24% -29  1 - 6 -38 -27 F D- F -10 F C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 168 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 35% -8  1 - 7 -16 +1 A- F B -16 F D D
 Tue, Dec 9 57 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 4% -22  1 - 8 -20 +0 F+ B C+ -24 F C C
 Tue, Dec 16 297 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 40% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -19 -17 F D+ F -1 F+ D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 333 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 50% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 +7 +8 A+ F F -0 D D- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 322 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 70% +5  3 - 9 2 - 1 +6 -0 B- D- C- +7 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 242 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 50% -3  3 - 10 2 - 2 -13 -3 F B C- -9 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 253 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 30% -6  4 - 10 3 - 2 +1 +11 C C A+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 239 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 28% +5  5 - 10 4 - 2 +7 +12 B B+ C- -6 F C- B+
 Thu, Jan 15 321 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 69% -4  6 - 10 5 - 2 -2 +5 C B C+ -6 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 362 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 86% +6  7 - 10 6 - 2 -12 +9 C D+ A -21 F D F
 Thu, Jan 22 237 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 27% -5  7 - 11 6 - 3 -6 -5 F D A+ -1 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 242 @Tennessee St. L 63 - 70 28% +2  7 - 12 6 - 4 -9 -11 F B+ C- +2 D C- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Tennessee Tech L 77 - 87 48% -8  7 - 13 6 - 5 -17 +3 B F B -20 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 202 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 73 22%
 Thu, Feb 5 239 Lindenwood L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 253 SIU Edwardsville W 66 - 65 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Western Illinois W 72 - 66 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 321 @Eastern Illinois L 67 - 68 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 202 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 70 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 237 Southeast Missouri St. L 73 - 74 48%
 Thu, Feb 26 297 Morehead St. W 74 - 71 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 Southern Indiana W 72 - 66 71%
Totals 12 - 17 11 - 9 -8 -4 D+ C- D -4 F D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 1.5 0.4 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.4 1.3 0.1 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.5 3.6 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 7.7 0.5 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 10.1 3.2 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 9.0 7.8 0.4 18.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 10.2 10.9 1.7 25.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.5 0.7 9.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.7 15.0 22.4 23.6 17.7 9.1 2.9 0.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 89.4% 0.4    0.3 0.2
14-6 51.9% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0
13-7 6.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 25.5% 25.5% 15.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 2.9% 23.5% 23.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 2.2
13-7 9.1% 11.2% 11.2% 15.9 0.1 1.0 8.1
12-8 17.7% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1 16.5
11-9 23.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.9 22.7
10-10 22.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 21.9
9-11 15.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.8
8-12 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
7-13 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.9 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%