Charleston Southern
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 256
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 297
Pace 76.1 25
Improvement -2.5 282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #261 C+ D D+ D- B
Defense C- #240 B C F D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 259 58% 172 -1.5 239
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 341 37% 202 -3.6 342
Three Pointers 53% 13 34% 162 +6.4 21
1st FG Attempt 1.04 135 +1.2 135
Second Chance 28.4% 239 0.86 348 0.24 322
Turnovers 18.6% 292
Freethrows 0.26 307 66% 348 0.17 337
Total Offense -3.4 261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 76 51% 40 +0.4 157
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 32 37% 146 -2.2 332
Three Pointers 31% 362 34% 186 +5.3 8
1st FG Attempt 0.95 60 +3.6 60
Second Chance 29.2% 120 1.05 234 0.31 169
Turnovers 11.7% 363
Freethrows 0.36 326 71% 122 0.26 315
Total Defense -2.0 240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.0 59 -0.5 86
Shot Type Accuracy +0.2 165 -3.0 64
Possession Length 16.1 64 16.5 47
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 306 0.17 183
Improvement -1.6 #282 -0.9 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2% 2% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 3%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 55 @Virginia Tech L 67 - 98 5% -13  12% 0 - 1 F -18 F+ -9 C- F C- D -6 B F F
 Mon, Nov 10 347 @The Citadel W 96 - 86 65% +0  43% 1 - 1 C +1 A +13 B C+ B- F -13 F A F
 Thu, Nov 13 305 @Alabama A&M L 64 - 68 50% -5  20% 1 - 2 D -9 F -12 D C- F B- +3 A- F B+
 Fri, Nov 14 246 Lindenwood L 77 - 83 47% +6  73% 1 - 3 D -11 D- -7 B- F D- C- -3 D A F
 Tue, Nov 18 332 IU Indianapolis W 103 - 91 79% +13  84% 2 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 B+ C+ D+ D -7 B C- F
 Fri, Nov 21 252 @East Carolina W 77 - 65 37% +7  99% 3 - 3 B +10 C+ +2 A- F A A- +8 B C- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 90 @South Carolina L 62 - 74 10% -4  7% 3 - 4 C- -4 F+ -10 D F B- B+ +6 A C- F
 Tue, Dec 2 219 @Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 30% -5  15% 3 - 5 F+ -17 F -13 F+ D+ D- D -6 B B F
 Mon, Dec 8 358 South Carolina St. W 84 - 44 88% +15  72% 4 - 5 A +22 C+ +3 C+ F C+ A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 345 North Florida W 113 - 90 82% +12  99% 5 - 5 B- +8 A- +10 A+ F D- D+ -5 C+ B- F
 Sun, Dec 21 176 @Furman L 76 - 84 24% -6  10% 5 - 6 D+ -6 C- -2 C D- B D+ -4 B+ D F
 Sun, Dec 28 128 @Richmond W 77 - 72 16% +4  83% 6 - 6 B +10 C +0 C D+ D+ A- +10 A A+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 363 @Gardner-Webb W 89 - 79 83% -1  51% 7 - 6 1 - 0 D+ -6 C+ +2 C B- D+ D- -8 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 211 UNC Asheville W 86 - 83 52% +6  95% 8 - 6 2 - 0 C- -3 B- +5 A+ A F D- -8 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 130 @Winthrop L 77 - 81 17% +2  56% 8 - 7 2 - 1 C +1 D -4 F A- A B +6 A C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 92 High Point L 82 - 84 OT 23% +2  61% 8 - 8 2 - 2 C +0 D- -6 C- F A+ B+ +7 A A- D
 Wed, Jan 14 297 South Carolina Upstate L 81 - 86 OT 70% +1  59% 8 - 9 2 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 A- F C+ D- -8 A- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 272 @Presbyterian L 83 - 87 42% -8  5% 8 - 10 2 - 4 D+ -7 C+ +3 C+ A- C F+ -10 F B+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 261 @Longwood L 79 - 81 OT 39% -6  10% 8 - 11 2 - 5 C- -5 D- -8 C D+ F B- +3 C+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 29 233 Radford L 75 - 84 56% -8  6% 8 - 12 2 - 6 F+ -16 F -13 F F D C- -2 C+ F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 92 @High Point L 55 - 80 10% -11  7% 8 - 13 2 - 7 F+ -17 F -19 C+ F F B- +3 B C D
 Sat, Feb 7 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 94 - 100 OT 47% +0  48% 8 - 14 2 - 8 D -11 A- +10 B- A+ F F -20 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 272 Presbyterian W 75 - 71 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 233 @Radford L 81 - 85 33%
 Tue, Feb 17 363 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 71 94%
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Longwood W 78 - 75 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 130 Winthrop L 78 - 82 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 211 @UNC Asheville L 72 - 78 30%
Totals 11 - 17 5 - 11 -5 D+ -3 C+ D D+ C- -2 B C F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- C+ C 36% 11% 53% B C+ C- F+ D D+ D F+ D- C- B+ C+ C B 43% 27% 31% B- B C+ C- C F D- C+ D
1.04 58% 37% 34% 0 +1 1.04 28% 0.9 .24 19% .26 66% .17 1.12 51% 37% 34% -3 0 0.95 29% 1.1 .31 12% .36 71% .19
Nov
3		 Virginia Tech F+ F F A D+ 38% 14% 48% B+ C- C F F C- C D- C- D D- A- C+ B- 32% 29% 39% A- B F F F F D- B D+
0.86 41% 13% 39% -6 +1 0.91 29% 0.5 .16 19% .24 67% .16 1.26 70% 28% 33% +1 -2 1.00 41% 1.4 .57 9% .38 70% .27
Nov
10		 The Citadel A C+ A A B 45% 7% 47% B+ B B+ D- C+ B- B A- B+ F F F F F 35% 33% 33% A F A A+ A F F C+ F
1.33 64% 50% 42% +10 +2 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 12% .33 76% .25 1.19 67% 53% 41% +11 -2 1.21 19% 0.7 .13 11% .47 67% .31
Nov
13		 Alabama A&M F B F F D- 41% 11% 48% B- D B+ F C- F B- F D B- A+ D- D+ A- 41% 34% 25% B- A- F F F B+ A+ F B+
0.92 67% 20% 29% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 26% .37 58% .21 0.98 26% 42% 36% -11 -2 0.77 38% 1.2 .45 20% .22 92% .20
Nov
14		 Lindenwood D- A A+ D- C+ 41% 4% 55% B+ B- F+ F F D- D- D+ D- C- B D F+ D- 40% 32% 28% A D B+ A+ A F F C- F
0.99 70% 50% 29% +1 +2 1.09 25% 0.7 .18 20% .26 69% .18 1.06 52% 39% 38% -1 -1 0.98 27% 0.8 .23 14% .46 68% .31
Nov
18		 IU Indianapolis C+ A+ A+ C+ A- 33% 7% 60% C- B+ D+ A C+ D+ A- F D+ D D A+ A B+ 38% 23% 39% C- B B- F C- F F A+ D
1.25 78% 75% 36% +11 +1 1.27 33% 1.5 .48 21% .46 60% .28 1.10 65% 25% 26% -5 0 0.91 24% 1.3 .33 5% .26 60% .15
Nov
21		 East Carolina C+ C F A+ A 22% 22% 56% D A- F F F A D- B D A- C+ C+ A+ B 47% 33% 20% B- B A F C- D- D- A+ B-
1.10 58% 25% 48% +10 -1 1.18 15% 0.8 .12 13% .21 77% .16 0.92 54% 35% 10% -10 -1 0.80 26% 1.3 .34 14% .40 54% .22
Nov
28		 South Carolina F+ D+ D+ F F+ 43% 10% 47% A D C+ F F B- F F F B+ D+ D A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% B- A A+ F C- F D- B D+
0.88 54% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.88 30% 0.5 .14 14% .13 63% .08 1.05 65% 46% 14% -7 -1 0.87 19% 1.7 .32 7% .38 76% .29
Dec
2		 Tennessee Martin F B B- F F 19% 10% 71% B- F+ C- D+ D+ D- F F F D D+ A+ B+ B+ 27% 15% 58% C B D A B F F F F
0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13 1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43
Dec
8		 South Carolina St. C+ F F A+ C+ 34% 9% 57% C- C+ D F F C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 28% 52% 20% A+ A+ B- A+ A+ C+ F A+ B
1.23 50% 25% 44% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.7 .24 16% .52 80% .42 0.64 31% 25% 33% -15 -5 0.63 28% 0.5 .13 22% .45 38% .17
Dec
18		 North Florida A- A+ B+ A+ A+ 25% 10% 65% C- A+ F F F D- C+ A+ A- D+ C+ C C+ B- 40% 16% 44% C- C+ A+ F B- F F C- F
1.41 80% 50% 51% +24 0 1.50 23% 1.0 .23 15% .29 85% .25 1.12 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 16% 1.5 .24 11% .35 80% .28
Dec
21		 Furman C- B C F C- 43% 8% 49% A C F+ C- D- B F F F D+ B+ A D+ B 38% 21% 41% B+ B+ A+ F D F F F F
1.02 63% 40% 26% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.0 .23 12% .14 56% .08 1.13 52% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.8 .35 11% .39 77% .30
Dec
28		 Richmond C A F D- D+ 31% 11% 58% A- C B F D+ D+ A D- B+ A- A A- F A- 29% 39% 31% A A B- A+ A+ D F F F
1.06 71% 17% 28% -3 +1 0.96 36% 0.9 .31 18% .39 65% .25 1.00 47% 30% 44% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.2 .05 12% .46 86% .39
Dec
31		 Gardner-Webb C+ F+ A+ B+ C- 48% 12% 40% B+ C D- A+ B- D+ A+ D A+ D- A+ F D+ A 48% 13% 38% D- B+ D- F F F F F F
1.21 54% 67% 40% +5 +2 1.16 29% 1.4 .41 16% .50 68% .34 1.07 28% 43% 35% -13 +2 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 14% .52 88% .46
Jan
3		 UNC Asheville B- A A A- A+ 53% 9% 38% A A+ A C+ A F A+ F B+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 32% 26% F A+ F F F F F C F
1.19 72% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.30 42% 1.0 .42 22% .52 52% .27 1.15 33% 38% 23% -15 -1 0.70 44% 1.3 .58 11% .61 69% .42
Jan
7		 Winthrop D F+ A F F 43% 10% 47% A- F C A+ A- A C+ F D- B B B+ A+ A+ 54% 12% 34% F+ A D+ B+ C+ D+ F A+ C-
1.00 48% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 30% 1.5 .45 12% .34 57% .19 1.05 50% 29% 20% -13 +2 0.81 36% 0.9 .32 13% .46 61% .28
Jan
10		 High Point D- F A+ A- D+ 46% 10% 44% B+ C- F C+ F A+ F F F B+ C+ A+ C A 49% 25% 25% B+ A C A+ A- D F A+ F
1.01 41% 67% 39% -1 +2 1.03 19% 1.1 .21 15% .22 60% .13 1.04 59% 13% 33% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.8 .25 11% .56 60% .33
Jan
14		 South Carolina Upstate D- A A- C+ A 44% 16% 40% C+ A- F F F C+ B+ F D+ D- A D+ A A- 46% 37% 17% A- A- D- F F F D- B+ D+
1.02 72% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 19% 0.0 .00 15% .37 52% .19 1.08 41% 39% 27% -9 -1 0.81 33% 1.3 .41 10% .35 64% .22
Jan
21		 Presbyterian C+ D+ F A- C+ 41% 7% 52% B+ C+ D A+ A- C F F F F+ F D+ F F 40% 36% 23% A- F A+ F B+ F F A- F
1.13 54% 25% 40% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.6 .42 15% .13 38% .05 1.18 68% 41% 55% +13 -2 1.23 20% 1.2 .23 12% .56 61% .34
Jan
23		 Longwood D- F+ D A C 35% 6% 59% B- C C+ F D+ F C- D- D B- A D F+ C+ 51% 33% 16% B- C+ A+ B- A C+ F F F
0.97 53% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.13 30% 0.7 .21 27% .33 65% .22 0.99 46% 41% 38% -4 -1 0.92 21% 0.9 .18 21% .52 82% .43
Jan
29		 Radford F C- F F F 42% 6% 52% B+ F C F F D A+ F A+ C- A+ F+ F C 45% 31% 24% A- C+ C F F+ C F F+ F
0.96 57% 0% 27% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.7 .23 20% .58 61% .35 1.07 41% 47% 42% -2 -1 0.96 29% 1.3 .37 18% .51 79% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 High Point F A+ D D C 29% 7% 63% B- C+ C+ F F F F A+ F B- C+ A A B+ 58% 15% 27% D- B D+ B- C D B- C B-
0.78 75% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.07 35% 0.6 .19 41% .17 86% .14 1.14 59% 25% 27% -4 +2 0.98 33% 1.1 .36 11% .32 75% .24
Feb
7		 South Carolina Upstate A- B+ A+ D- C+ 37% 5% 58% B+ B- A+ A- A+ F D+ A+ C+ F A- F F F 45% 23% 32% C- F D- A+ B- F D F F
1.22 67% 67% 30% +2 +2 1.09 47% 1.3 .61 22% .28 82% .23 1.30 46% 64% 45% +6 0 1.15 33% 0.6 .21 4% .34 80% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.5 0.5 3rd
4th 1.0 1.2 2.3 4th
5th 1.3 6.0 0.3 7.6 5th
6th 1.7 12.2 3.8 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 4.7 20.9 11.4 0.2 37.4 7th
8th 0.4 5.8 17.1 10.5 0.6 34.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.5 6.1 21.8 33.1 25.5 11.1 2.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-9 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.6
6-10 25.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.7 24.8
5-11 33.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.8 32.3
4-12 21.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 21.6
3-13 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%