Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace53.2#365
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 15.0% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.5
.500 or above 76.4% 81.1% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 75.0% 59.4%
Conference Champion 16.3% 18.1% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.4% 6.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round13.4% 14.8% 7.9%
Second Round2.6% 2.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Neutral) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 49 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 263   Northern Arizona W 66-57 80%    
  Nov 06, 2025 207   Robert Morris W 66-57 80%    
  Nov 14, 2025 240   SIU Edwardsville W 64-53 84%    
  Nov 17, 2025 123   @ College of Charleston L 63-65 44%    
  Nov 28, 2025 52   LSU L 58-65 27%    
  Dec 02, 2025 339   Western Illinois W 67-49 94%    
  Dec 05, 2025 102   UAB W 65-63 56%    
  Dec 13, 2025 208   North Dakota St. W 65-56 79%    
  Dec 18, 2025 127   @ Murray St. L 58-60 45%    
  Dec 21, 2025 241   @ Evansville W 61-56 66%    
  Dec 29, 2025 109   Illinois St. W 62-60 58%    
  Jan 04, 2026 170   Indiana St. W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 07, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 57-61 37%    
  Jan 10, 2026 112   Belmont W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 14, 2026 141   @ Southern Illinois L 61-62 48%    
  Jan 17, 2026 154   @ Illinois-Chicago W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 21, 2026 127   Murray St. W 61-57 65%    
  Jan 24, 2026 170   @ Indiana St. W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 28, 2026 241   Evansville W 64-53 82%    
  Jan 31, 2026 107   Bradley W 60-58 57%    
  Feb 03, 2026 112   @ Belmont L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 06, 2026 109   @ Illinois St. L 59-63 38%    
  Feb 09, 2026 261   Valparaiso W 68-56 83%    
  Feb 12, 2026 154   Illinois-Chicago W 65-59 69%    
  Feb 15, 2026 110   @ Northern Iowa L 57-60 39%    
  Feb 18, 2026 141   Southern Illinois W 64-59 67%    
  Feb 25, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso W 65-59 68%    
  Mar 01, 2026 110   Northern Iowa W 60-57 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 4.1 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.3 16.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.5 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.6 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.9 1.7 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.1 6.5 8.1 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.3 9.2 7.7 6.3 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
18-2 97.3% 2.3    2.1 0.2
17-3 88.0% 3.8    3.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 65.7% 4.1    2.6 1.4 0.2
15-5 39.3% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.8% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 10.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 81.1% 65.8% 15.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 44.6%
19-1 1.1% 66.7% 58.9% 7.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 18.9%
18-2 2.4% 52.7% 47.0% 5.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.1 10.7%
17-3 4.3% 39.1% 37.0% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 3.3%
16-4 6.3% 31.0% 30.3% 0.7% 11.5 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 4.3 1.0%
15-5 7.7% 26.1% 26.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.7
14-6 9.2% 18.4% 18.4% 12.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.5
13-7 10.3% 14.3% 14.3% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.8
12-8 10.7% 9.7% 9.7% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.6
11-9 10.3% 7.0% 7.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.6
10-10 9.3% 3.6% 3.6% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0
9-11 8.1% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
8-12 6.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
7-13 5.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
6-14 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-16 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.5% 13.1% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.1 4.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 86.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 4.9 9.9 25.3 19.8 30.0 0.2 4.9 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 75.5% 5.0 50.3 25.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%