Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#136
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#225
Pace64.4#310
Improvement+1.4#82

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#121
First Shot+3.5#82
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#285
Layup/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#73
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+3.8#6

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#174
First Shot-3.4#294
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#15
Layups/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#354
Freethrows+3.0#31
Improvement-2.4#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.9% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 46.3% 65.2% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.6% 74.3% 50.0%
Conference Champion 5.0% 11.0% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.6% 4.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.6% 7.9% 4.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 78 - 13
Quad 47 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 271 Northern Arizona W 77-71 76%     1 - 0 +0.1 +3.1 -2.8
  Thu, Nov 6 183 Robert Morris L 79-81 OT 72%     1 - 1 -6.6 -0.7 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 14 234 SIU Edwardsville L 59-61 80%     1 - 2 -9.1 -6.4 -3.0
  Mon, Nov 17 185 @College of Charleston W 71-62 51%     2 - 2 +10.3 -0.5 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 28 35 LSU L 62-71 15%     2 - 3 +3.9 -3.7 +7.3
  Sat, Nov 29 128 Georgia Tech W 84-74 48%     3 - 3 +12.0 +21.1 -8.3
  Tue, Dec 2 355 Western Illinois W 108-57 95%     4 - 3 +34.3 +37.8 +1.4
  Fri, Dec 5 112 UAB L 69-74 55%     4 - 4 -4.6 -3.3 -1.4
  Sat, Dec 13 148 North Dakota St. L 94-99 64%     4 - 5 -7.1 +17.7 -24.7
  Thu, Dec 18 97 @Murray St. L 76-82 27%    
  Sun, Dec 21 269 @Evansville W 72-68 66%    
  Mon, Dec 29 92 Illinois St. L 71-72 45%    
  Sun, Jan 4 182 Indiana St. W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 114 @Bradley L 68-73 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 87 Belmont L 75-77 44%    
  Wed, Jan 14 129 @Southern Illinois L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 192 @Illinois-Chicago W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 97 Murray St. L 78-79 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 182 @Indiana St. W 74-73 50%    
  Wed, Jan 28 269 Evansville W 75-65 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 114 Bradley W 71-70 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 87 @Belmont L 72-80 25%    
  Fri, Feb 6 92 @Illinois St. L 68-75 26%    
  Mon, Feb 9 211 Valparaiso W 73-65 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 192 Illinois-Chicago W 76-69 73%    
  Sun, Feb 15 93 @Northern Iowa L 60-67 26%    
  Wed, Feb 18 129 Southern Illinois W 75-72 60%    
  Wed, Feb 25 211 @Valparaiso W 70-68 57%    
  Sun, Mar 1 93 Northern Iowa L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.1 5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 6.0 2.3 0.3 14.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.5 2.2 0.3 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 4.3 1.6 0.2 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.6 8.3 10.9 12.6 13.3 12.4 10.6 8.1 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 90.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 73.2% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 46.6% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 26.8% 26.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.8% 27.0% 27.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-4 1.7% 16.1% 16.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.4% 16.4% 16.4% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.9
14-6 5.9% 13.3% 13.3% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.1
13-7 8.1% 10.8% 10.8% 12.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 7.2
12-8 10.6% 8.3% 8.3% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-9 12.4% 6.7% 6.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 11.6
10-10 13.3% 4.3% 4.3% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.8
9-11 12.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.3 0.0 12.3
8-12 10.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 10.8
7-13 8.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.2
6-14 5.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 94.4 0.0%