Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.2 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #311
Pace 65.7 #265
Improvement -0.6 #222

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #354 F+ D+ D+ C D-
Defense #182 C F+ C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #216 1.02 #332 -3.5 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #16 0.61 #344 +1.9 #84
Three Pointers 31% #348 0.92 #297 -6.5 #345
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #357 -8.0 #357
Freethrows 0.28 #245 76% #60 0.22 #189
Second Chance 26.8% #285 0.97 #273 0.26 #296
Turnovers 18.1% #290
Total Offense -8.7 #354

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #154 1.26 #308 -2.8 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #333 0.82 #280 +1.6 #70
Three Pointers 45% #62 0.90 #42 +0.5 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.7 #200
Freethrows 0.31 #227 78% #358 0.24 #287
Second Chance 36.5% #348 1.15 #311 0.42 #356
Turnovers 17.6% #98
Total Defense -0.5 #182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 1.6% #313
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.1% #352 -0.2% #180
Possession Length 18.5 #292 16.5 #48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #155 0.18 #209
Improvement -1.0 #237 +0.4 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 2.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 36.6% 53.6% 22.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 1.4%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 410 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 14% -5  0 - 1 -1 -7 C- F F +7 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 7 253 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 47% +5  1 - 1 -0 -11 F C+ D+ +11 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 80 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 5% -7  1 - 2 -10 -1 C+ F+ D- -12 B- F C+
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -28 -9 D- F B- -20 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 221 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 20% -16  1 - 4 -21 -7 D- D D+ -17 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 9 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  1 - 5 -24 -4 B F F -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 238 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 43% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -15 -2 F B- A+ -13 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 258 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 47% -5  1 - 7 -18 -15 F D F+ -4 C C C
 Sun, Dec 14 6 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 1% -15  1 - 8 -1 -8 D- C- D +7 A- A B
 Thu, Dec 18 263 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 48% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -5 +1 B C F -6 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 251 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 24% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -13 D- F C- +2 B+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 228 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 21% +8  2 - 10 1 - 3 -5 -7 F F D- +2 B+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 338 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 69% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -4 +1 D C+ B -4 C D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 231 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 41% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 -1 C- C B- -2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 359 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 80% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -16 -20 F F F+ +4 A F B+
 Thu, Jan 15 281 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 30% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A- F -10 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 324 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 42% -3  6 - 11 5 - 4 +1 -15 F D D- +16 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 300 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 34% -0  6 - 12 5 - 5 -10 -1 F A F -10 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 228 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 41% +4  6 - 13 5 - 6 -15 -4 F D- A- -11 F C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 251 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 69 45%
 Thu, Feb 5 231 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 76 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 68 46%
 Tue, Feb 10 359 @Western Illinois W 66 - 63 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 281 Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 67 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 300 Morehead St. W 69 - 67 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Southern Indiana W 67 - 63 64%
 Thu, Feb 26 238 @Lindenwood L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 @SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 66 28%
Totals 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9 -9 F+ D+ D+ -1 C F+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 0.4 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 2.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.3 0.7 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 6.6 4.4 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 8.1 8.9 1.2 20.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 9.7 17.5 14.8 2.9 0.0 46.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 3.2 1.4 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.5 4.4 13.2 21.3 24.0 19.5 11.8 4.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 77.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7 9.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.1 0.8
12-8 4.4% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.1
11-9 11.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.6
10-10 19.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 19.0
9-11 24.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.5 23.5
8-12 21.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 21.1
7-13 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-14 4.4% 4.4
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%