Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -18.9 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -19.5 #359
Pace 73.6 #61
Improvement -0.9 #233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D- D- F+ D+ B-
Defense #362 F+ D D C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.00 #339 -1.8 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.57 #360 -2.8 #311
Three Pointers 42% #159 0.91 #319 -1.8 #249
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #345 -6.4 #343
Freethrows 0.27 #285 70% #262 0.19 #300
Second Chance 23.8% #342 0.97 #268 0.23 #339
Turnovers 21.0% #350
Total Offense -9.7 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.36 #362 -5.8 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #245 0.73 #129 +0.8 #126
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.16 #341 -2.5 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #360 -7.5 #361
Freethrows 0.28 #107 72% #160 0.20 #113
Second Chance 35.4% #336 1.08 #264 0.38 #324
Turnovers 14.3% #327
Total Defense -9.2 #362

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #104 1.0% #260
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.8% #359 12.9% #360
Possession Length 16.7 #117 16.6 #64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #150 0.21 #307
Improvement -1.3 #258 +0.3 #164

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.0% 96.1% 99.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 42 - 122 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0 - 1 -16 -9 F+ F+ C -6 F C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 37 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0 - 2 -21 -3 C D+ F+ -18 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 202 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  0 - 3 -11 +2 C+ D- D+ -12 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 95 @DePaul L 62 - 93 1% -21  0 - 4 -22 -11 F+ C- F+ -7 F A C
 Sat, Nov 22 137 @Richmond L 67 - 102 3% -28  0 - 5 -31 -9 B- F F -19 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 174 Navy L 51 - 84 6% -16  0 - 6 -34 -17 F F+ F -19 D- F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 279 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 13% +2  0 - 7 -15 -6 C- C+ F -8 C C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 119 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  0 - 8 -20 -8 C- F F -12 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 211 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0 - 9 -33 -7 F A C -24 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 18% -3  0 - 10 -13 -0 C F+ C- -13 D- C F
 Mon, Dec 15 199 Wofford L 57 - 83 11% -11  0 - 11 -31 -20 F F F -12 C- F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 15 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  0 - 12 -21 -10 D D C -11 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 252 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 16% +1  0 - 13 0 - 1 -18 -0 F+ B D+ -17 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 124 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 2% +5  0 - 14 0 - 2 -6 +8 A- F A+ -14 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 97 @High Point L 49 - 104 1% -38  0 - 15 0 - 3 -46 -28 F F+ F -11 C F D
 Wed, Jan 14 232 Radford L 80 - 89 14% -5  0 - 16 0 - 4 -16 +2 D+ C- A -18 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 265 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 17% -20  0 - 17 0 - 5 -46 -22 F D- F -24 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 260 @Longwood L 56 - 91 7% -17  0 - 18 0 - 6 -38 -17 F D+ F -21 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 301 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 23% -3  1 - 18 1 - 6 -9 -5 D- C D -4 C+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 29 213 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 5% -12  1 - 19 1 - 7 -19 -14 F D+ F -8 F+ C D-
 Wed, Feb 4 260 Longwood L 66 - 86 17% -9  1 - 20 1 - 8 -29 -11 D+ F F -17 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 265 @Presbyterian L 64 - 80 6%
 Thu, Feb 12 124 Winthrop L 70 - 88 4%
 Sat, Feb 14 97 @High Point L 67 - 94 1%
 Tue, Feb 17 252 @Charleston Southern L 70 - 87 6%
 Thu, Feb 19 232 @Radford L 73 - 91 5%
 Thu, Feb 26 213 UNC Asheville L 68 - 81 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 81 10%
Totals 1 - 27 1 - 15 -19 -10 D- D- F+ -9 F+ D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 65.3 26.3 4.3 0.2 96.1 9th
Total 65.3 27.4 6.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.9% 0.9
3-13 6.3% 6.3
2-14 27.4% 27.4
1-15 65.3% 65.3
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 57.1%