Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#26
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#63
Pace70.0#168
Improvement-2.6#330

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#39
First Shot+8.5#19
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#248
Layup/Dunks+2.7#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#27
Freethrows+2.3#61
Improvement-2.1#330

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#21
First Shot+7.0#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#170
Layups/Dunks+8.2#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#24
Freethrows-3.3#344
Improvement-0.5#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.4% 7.4% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 22.4% 22.4% 14.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.0% 68.0% 52.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.3% 67.3% 51.2%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.1
.500 or above 94.9% 95.0% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.3% 67.3% 53.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four6.6% 6.6% 8.1%
First Round65.2% 65.2% 50.0%
Second Round42.4% 42.4% 22.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.7% 15.7% 4.7%
Elite Eight6.5% 6.5% 4.7%
Final Four2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 10
Quad 25 - 29 - 12
Quad 35 - 014 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 280 Alabama A&M W 98-51 98%     1 - 0 +37.6 +21.7 +15.7
  Sun, Nov 9 99 Marquette W 100-77 82%     2 - 0 +28.0 +22.9 +3.4
  Wed, Nov 12 233 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101-70 97%     3 - 0 +23.9 +22.9 +0.6
  Sun, Nov 16 173 Incarnate Word W 69-61 95%     4 - 0 +4.0 -2.5 +7.2
  Thu, Nov 20 228 Lindenwood W 73-53 97%     5 - 0 +12.9 -2.5 +15.3
  Tue, Nov 25 67 Kansas St. W 86-69 81%     6 - 0 +22.4 +7.7 +13.4
  Sat, Nov 29 259 Bethune-Cookman W 100-56 97%     7 - 0 +35.5 +21.5 +13.4
  Wed, Dec 3 96 @Minnesota L 64-73 73%     7 - 1 0 - 1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5
  Sat, Dec 6 14 Louisville L 78-87 39%     7 - 2 +8.6 +6.9 +2.2
  Tue, Dec 9 105 Penn St. W 113-72 89%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +42.1 +32.8 +7.5
  Sat, Dec 13 21 @Kentucky L 60-72 36%     8 - 3 +6.6 -0.6 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 20 341 Chicago St. W 90-61 99.7%   
  Mon, Dec 22 171 Siena W 80-61 96%    
  Sun, Jan 4 48 Washington W 79-72 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 95 @Maryland W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 24 Nebraska W 77-74 59%    
  Tue, Jan 13 11 @Michigan St. L 68-74 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 22 Iowa W 71-69 58%    
  Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 70-85 8%    
  Fri, Jan 23 130 @Rutgers W 78-68 82%    
  Tue, Jan 27 7 Purdue L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 30 @UCLA L 71-73 40%    
  Tue, Feb 3 36 @USC L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 43 Wisconsin W 80-74 70%    
  Mon, Feb 9 62 Oregon W 80-71 79%    
  Sun, Feb 15 12 @Illinois L 75-81 28%    
  Fri, Feb 20 7 @Purdue L 69-78 21%    
  Tue, Feb 24 59 Northwestern W 80-72 77%    
  Sun, Mar 1 11 Michigan St. L 70-71 48%    
  Wed, Mar 4 96 Minnesota W 76-63 86%    
  Sat, Mar 7 31 @Ohio St. L 76-78 43%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.3 1.8 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.5 3.5 0.3 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.2 0.9 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 5.7 1.9 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.7 3.5 0.3 9.7 10th
11th 0.5 3.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.4 0.1 6.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.3 0.2 4.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 16th
17th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.8 9.0 13.0 15.5 15.5 14.1 10.0 6.7 3.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 82.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 37.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 19.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.4% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.4% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 100.0%
14-6 6.7% 99.9% 5.8% 94.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.0% 99.4% 4.2% 95.2% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 14.1% 97.5% 2.3% 95.2% 7.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.0 3.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.4 97.5%
11-9 15.5% 89.9% 1.5% 88.4% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.0 3.7 2.3 0.6 1.6 89.8%
10-10 15.5% 74.8% 0.6% 74.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 0.0 3.9 74.6%
9-11 13.0% 40.9% 0.5% 40.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 0.1 7.7 40.6%
8-12 9.0% 13.0% 0.2% 12.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 7.8 12.8%
7-13 5.8% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 1.8%
6-14 3.0% 3.0
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 68.0% 2.2% 65.8% 7.5 0.3 0.7 2.2 4.2 6.5 8.5 10.2 11.5 9.5 8.4 5.8 0.2 32.0 67.3%