Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#135
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.8% 4.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.4% 15.5% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 28.9% 29.0% 6.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.6% 58.8% 24.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.3% 57.5% 22.8%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 8.2
.500 or above 79.6% 79.9% 40.8%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 57.4% 23.7%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.4% 5.9%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 4.0%
First Round55.9% 56.1% 23.0%
Second Round38.8% 38.9% 13.1%
Sweet Sixteen17.3% 17.4% 2.0%
Elite Eight7.1% 7.2% 0.6%
Final Four3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2025 325   Alabama A&M W 89-63 99%    
  Nov 09, 2025 43   Marquette W 72-71 55%    
  Nov 12, 2025 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-64 96%    
  Nov 16, 2025 209   Incarnate Word W 80-60 96%    
  Nov 20, 2025 327   Lindenwood W 86-59 99%    
  Nov 25, 2025 57   Kansas St. W 74-67 73%    
  Nov 29, 2025 246   Bethune-Cookman W 84-63 97%    
  Dec 03, 2025 87   @ Minnesota W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 06, 2025 11   Louisville L 73-77 36%    
  Dec 09, 2025 90   Penn St. W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 13, 2025 7   @ Kentucky L 73-82 23%    
  Dec 20, 2025 349   Chicago St. W 88-59 99%    
  Dec 22, 2025 222   Siena W 82-62 96%    
  Jan 04, 2026 48   Washington W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 07, 2026 40   @ Maryland L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 10, 2026 60   Nebraska W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 13, 2026 21   @ Michigan St. L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 17, 2026 32   Iowa W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 20, 2026 6   @ Michigan L 70-79 23%    
  Jan 23, 2026 81   @ Rutgers W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 27, 2026 2   Purdue L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 31, 2026 14   @ UCLA L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 03, 2026 29   @ USC L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 07, 2026 26   Wisconsin W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 09, 2026 28   Oregon W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 15, 2026 15   @ Illinois L 75-82 29%    
  Feb 20, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 66-79 15%    
  Feb 24, 2026 71   Northwestern W 73-64 76%    
  Mar 01, 2026 21   Michigan St. W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 04, 2026 87   Minnesota W 72-61 80%    
  Mar 07, 2026 27   @ Ohio St. L 72-76 36%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 1.7 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.4 0.3 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.6 0.9 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 4.0 1.5 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.4 0.2 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.8 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.0 5.9 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.6 11.7 10.1 8.1 6.4 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 97.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 88.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 59.5% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 29.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 6.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 55.1% 44.9% 1.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.4% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.4 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.4% 99.9% 7.3% 92.6% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 8.1% 99.3% 4.2% 95.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 10.1% 95.9% 3.2% 92.7% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.4 95.7%
11-9 11.7% 89.5% 1.1% 88.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 89.4%
10-10 11.6% 72.4% 0.7% 71.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.2 72.2%
9-11 10.9% 41.8% 0.5% 41.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.0 6.3 41.5%
8-12 9.7% 15.3% 0.1% 15.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 8.2 15.2%
7-13 7.9% 2.8% 2.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7 2.8%
6-14 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 5.9 0.3%
5-15 4.0% 4.0
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 58.6% 3.0% 55.6% 6.5 1.7 3.1 4.8 5.8 6.6 6.9 7.3 6.9 5.9 5.9 3.5 0.2 41.4 57.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0