Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#309
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#254
Pace65.9#277
Improvement-3.5#351

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#306
First Shot-3.5#277
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks+0.8#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#157
Freethrows-3.2#333
Improvement+0.0#181

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#292
First Shot-4.1#315
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#145
Layups/Dunks-2.6#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#214
Freethrows-1.5#288
Improvement-3.4#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 6.4% 17.4% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 41.6% 28.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 8.2% 15.5%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 8.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 410 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 33 @Miami (FL) L 69-86 2%     0 - 1 -0.8 +1.1 -1.0
  Tue, Nov 11 106 @High Point L 64-85 8%     0 - 2 -13.9 -7.5 -6.8
  Sat, Nov 15 331 @VMI W 69-67 45%     1 - 2 -5.4 -5.1 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 75 @George Mason L 57-79 5%     1 - 3 -11.4 -6.1 -6.8
  Mon, Nov 24 259 Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 38%     2 - 3 -0.5 -0.8 +0.8
  Tue, Nov 25 138 Pacific L 53-68 17%     2 - 4 -13.7 -10.5 -5.5
  Tue, Dec 2 334 Florida A&M W 85-82 OT 69%     3 - 4 -10.7 +1.7 -12.6
  Sat, Dec 6 187 @Florida International L 65-88 18%     3 - 5 -21.8 -5.7 -16.6
  Sun, Dec 14 45 @Texas A&M L 75-112 3%     3 - 6 -22.8 +1.8 -21.5
  Wed, Dec 17 334 @Florida A&M L 65-72 46%     3 - 7 -14.7 -6.0 -9.3
  Mon, Dec 22 122 @Florida St. L 70-85 9%    
  Thu, Jan 1 142 @Lipscomb L 66-79 12%    
  Sat, Jan 3 191 @Austin Peay L 64-74 18%    
  Thu, Jan 8 210 Queens L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 313 West Georgia W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Jan 15 286 @Central Arkansas L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 214 @North Alabama L 65-73 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 275 Bellarmine W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 243 Eastern Kentucky L 72-73 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 142 Lipscomb L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 184 Florida Gulf Coast L 71-75 36%    
  Thu, Feb 5 210 @Queens L 73-81 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 313 @West Georgia L 70-73 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 345 @Stetson W 71-70 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 343 North Florida W 80-74 70%    
  Thu, Feb 19 184 @Florida Gulf Coast L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 191 Austin Peay L 67-71 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 345 Stetson W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 343 @North Florida L 77-78 49%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.5 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.6 1.7 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 6.0 2.9 0.3 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.8 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.5 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.9 1.2 0.0 13.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 4.0 1.2 0.0 11.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.0 2.2 0.7 0.0 8.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.2 5.1 8.5 12.1 13.9 14.4 13.8 11.2 8.3 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 95.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 61.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 17.8% 17.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.3% 9.8% 9.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.2
12-6 2.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.5
11-7 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.7
10-8 8.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.0
9-9 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 10.9
8-10 13.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.6
7-11 14.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.3
6-12 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.8
5-13 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%