Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #295
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 #286
Pace 61.5 #346
Improvement +2.8 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #317 D+ C- C- D C
Defense #249 D- B- C- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.07 #278 -1.3 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.78 #144 +0.4 #160
Three Pointers 40% #209 0.90 #323 -2.9 #280
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #295 -3.8 #294
Freethrows 0.27 #302 70% #269 0.19 #316
Second Chance 28.3% #250 1.00 #220 0.28 #253
Turnovers 17.8% #233
Total Offense -5.6 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.29 #332 -5.6 #347
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.73 #141 +0.2 #172
Three Pointers 36% #305 1.15 #337 +0.0 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #333 -5.4 #334
Freethrows 0.36 #319 71% #97 0.25 #303
Second Chance 28.8% #106 0.95 #75 0.27 #81
Turnovers 15.8% #250
Total Defense -2.2 #249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #195 0.6% #227
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.3% #306 9.8% #336
Possession Length 19.5 #354 17.0 #134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #333 0.14 #59
Improvement +0.4 #151 +2.4 #53

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 4.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.5% 4.1% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 34.0% 59.7% 26.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.0% 5.1%
First Four2.4% 3.5% 2.0%
First Round1.5% 2.8% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 411 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 3% -9  0 - 1 -1 -0 B- D C -0 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 98 @High Point L 64 - 85 8% -11  0 - 2 -13 -7 F D+ C+ -6 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 356 @VMI W 69 - 67 64% +3  1 - 2 -9 -7 D+ B+ F -2 D F A
 Tue, Nov 18 82 @George Mason L 57 - 79 6% -12  1 - 3 -12 -7 D C F -6 F A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 222 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 34% -2  2 - 3 +2 +2 C+ D B- +0 C+ A- F+
 Tue, Nov 25 123 Pacific L 53 - 68 17% -7  2 - 4 -13 -11 F F B -4 C+ B- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 325 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 70% -0  3 - 4 -10 +3 D+ C+ A+ -13 F B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 188 @Florida International L 65 - 88 20% -18  3 - 5 -22 -5 F C+ F -17 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 14 27 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  3 - 6 -18 +4 B+ D- F+ -20 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 325 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 48% -9  3 - 7 -14 -5 D+ F C -10 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 100 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 8% -18  3 - 8 -16 -2 D F A+ -16 D- C- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 179 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 19% -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -4 D C F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 174 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 18% -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -1 -1 B B+ F -0 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 208 Queens L 51 - 77 43% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -32 -25 F C- F -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 324 West Georgia W 75 - 43 70% +17  4 - 11 1 - 3 +19 +9 A- F A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 219 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 24% +5  4 - 12 1 - 4 -2 -2 F B- A+ -1 D A C
 Sat, Jan 17 328 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 48% +13  5 - 12 2 - 4 +15 +16 B A+ C -1 C B- D-
 Thu, Jan 22 303 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 63% -1  5 - 13 2 - 5 -18 -6 F C- B -13 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 267 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 55% -3  6 - 13 3 - 5 -4 +2 C A- F -6 D F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 179 Lipscomb W 70 - 65 37% +8  7 - 13 4 - 5 +1 +6 B C A+ -5 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 224 Florida Gulf Coast L 49 - 68 45% -3  7 - 14 4 - 6 -25 -25 F F F -1 B- C+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 208 @Queens L 70 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 7 324 @West Georgia L 69 - 70 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 330 @Stetson L 68 - 69 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 350 North Florida W 82 - 74 77%
 Thu, Feb 19 224 @Florida Gulf Coast L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 174 Austin Peay L 66 - 70 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 330 Stetson W 71 - 65 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 350 @North Florida W 79 - 77 56%
Totals 11 - 18 8 - 10 -8 -6 D+ C- C- -2 D- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 3rd
4th 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.1 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 9.1 6.3 0.9 0.0 18.3 5th
6th 2.0 12.7 9.9 1.3 0.0 25.9 6th
7th 0.3 8.1 9.4 1.1 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 9.3 1.7 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.3 5.3 3.2 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 1.4 4.1 0.3 5.8 10th
11th 0.3 2.1 0.7 3.1 11th
12th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 12th
Total 0.5 4.3 12.5 22.8 25.9 20.7 9.9 3.1 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 3.1% 7.9% 7.9% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.8
10-8 9.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.5 9.4
9-9 20.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.8 19.9
8-10 25.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.7 25.2
7-11 22.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 22.5
6-12 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%