McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +5.9 90
Expected Predictive Rating +8.1 69
Pace 66.1 248
Improvement -4.0 333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #93 C C+ B+ C+ B-
Defense C+ #95 C+ D- A+ F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 59% 149 +3.8 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 42% 62 +0.4 158
Three Pointers 36% 282 31% 294 -4.0 313
1st FG Attempt 1.02 167 +0.2 166
Second Chance 35.4% 54 0.97 261 0.34 106
Turnovers 13.9% 30
Freethrows 0.30 194 76% 59 0.23 141
Total Offense +3.2 93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 55% 106 +3.7 63
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 293 35% 88 +1.9 46
Three Pointers 50% 11 33% 145 -3.9 329
1st FG Attempt 0.99 120 +1.7 121
Second Chance 35.7% 339 1.11 297 0.40 341
Turnovers 24.6% 1
Freethrows 0.39 350 74% 266 0.29 354
Total Defense +2.7 95

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 109 +0.1 192
Shot Type Accuracy -0.4 183 -1.8 110
Possession Length 16.4 86 19.0 359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 25 0.14 72
Improvement -2.8 #323 -1.2 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.7% 47.4% 42.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 22.2% 24.8% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round46.6% 47.4% 42.5%
Second Round6.0% 6.2% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 85.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 19 - 5
Quad 415 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 44 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 19% -5  30% 0 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 F A+ C+ B- +2 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 289 Louisiana W 88 - 62 93% +18  98% 1 - 1 A- +16 A +13 A+ F B- B- +4 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 83 George Washington W 92 - 86 47% +6  76% 2 - 1 B+ +13 A +12 C A+ A+ C +0 B+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 112 Murray St. W 73 - 60 59% +16  84% 3 - 1 A- +16 F+ -8 D+ F A A+ +24 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 172 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 74% -3  17% 4 - 1 B +9 A +14 F A+ A C- -2 D+ B B+
 Mon, Dec 1 256 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 79% -5  1% 4 - 2 0 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 D- B- F+ C -0 F+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 280 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 92% +24  98% 5 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +16 A+ C B A+ +14 C+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 9 116 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 50% +2  70% 6 - 2 B +8 D+ -4 C- F A+ A +12 D+ C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 300 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 93% +26  99% 7 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 A+ A- D- A- +8 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 297 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 84% -1  43% 8 - 2 3 - 1 B- +5 A +12 B- A+ A D+ -5 B F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3% -30  0% 8 - 3 D- -12 C- -1 D+ C- A+ D+ -5 D+ F B+
 Fri, Jan 2 197 Lamar W 82 - 70 85% +4  71% 9 - 3 4 - 1 B- +7 A+ +18 A- B+ A F+ -9 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 104 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 67% -2  10% 10 - 3 5 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 B F+ A C+ +1 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 268 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 91% +7  83% 11 - 3 6 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 B D- A- C -1 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 267 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 91% +15  90% 12 - 3 7 - 1 A- +17 B+ +8 C+ C+ A+ B+ +7 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 17 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 59% -10  3% 12 - 4 7 - 2 C +1 A- +10 D+ C A+ F+ -9 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 70% +6  76% 13 - 4 8 - 2 A- +16 A- +10 D A+ B- A- +9 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 224 New Orleans W 82 - 63 87% +9  95% 14 - 4 9 - 2 B+ +13 C+ +2 D C+ C+ A +11 C C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 268 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 80% +8  91% 15 - 4 10 - 2 B- +7 B +7 B C- B- C+ +1 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 197 @Lamar W 64 - 63 70% +3  85% 16 - 4 11 - 2 C +2 B- +4 F+ C A C- -2 C C C+
 Mon, Feb 2 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 67 44% -6  3% 16 - 5 11 - 3 C +0 F -11 F A+ F A +11 B C A-
 Sat, Feb 7 256 Incarnate Word W 81 - 64 90% +6  85% 17 - 5 12 - 3 B +9 A- +10 A+ F+ A+ C+ +1 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 297 Houston Christian W 73 - 69 93% +5  95% 18 - 5 13 - 3 D+ -7 D- -6 C D- B- C -0 B- D- A
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @East Texas A&M W 77 - 66 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 280 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74 - 63 86%
 Mon, Feb 23 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 76 - 68 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 @New Orleans W 80 - 74 72%
 Mon, Mar 2 267 @Nicholls St. W 78 - 69 80%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +6 B- +3 C C+ B+ C+ +3 C+ D- A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C B- D C 44% 20% 36% B- C B C- C+ B+ C B C+ C+ C+ B- C+ C+ 34% 17% 50% C C+ D- D+ D- A+ F+ D+ F+
1.13 59% 42% 31% 0 +1 1.02 35% 1.0 .34 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 55% 35% 33% -2 0 0.99 36% 1.1 .40 25% .39 74% .22
Nov
7		 Santa Clara C F A+ F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- A+ A+ C+ A C+ A B- B- A+ F+ B 26% 13% 61% B- B F A+ C+ A+ F A+ F
0.99 45% 60% 8% -12 +1 0.80 29% 1.9 .55 21% .43 74% .32 1.17 58% 17% 39% +2 0 1.07 57% 0.7 .39 22% .48 60% .29
Nov
14		 Louisiana A B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% B A+ C F F B- A+ B+ A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% D- A+ F D- F A+ F F F
1.32 67% 67% 50% +18 +2 1.41 32% 0.4 .12 16% .70 77% .54 0.93 46% 18% 22% -16 -1 0.67 41% 1.0 .41 25% .46 87% .40
Nov
23		 George Washington A B+ F B- C 49% 25% 25% C C A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A- F B+ B+ 29% 7% 64% B+ B+ F F F A+ F F+ F
1.25 67% 21% 36% +1 0 1.04 39% 1.2 .47 11% .43 82% .35 1.17 50% 100% 30% -2 +1 1.00 55% 1.4 .79 33% .60 80% .48
Nov
24		 Murray St. F+ B- B- F D 42% 20% 38% B- D+ D F F A C F F+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 26% 19% 55% A- A+ D C D+ A+ F A+ D+
0.98 60% 42% 22% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15 0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28
Nov
25		 Middle Tennessee A F F F F 43% 25% 33% C- F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F F+ 19% 33% 49% A+ D+ F A+ B B+ D A C
1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45 1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17
Dec
1		 Incarnate Word D- D- A+ F D 42% 29% 29% F+ D- D A+ B- F+ F A+ D- C F A F F 26% 28% 46% B+ F+ F F F A+ F C- F
1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23 1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34
Dec
5		 Northwestern St. A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 57% 13% 30% B+ A+ A+ F C B F+ B- D A+ A+ B+ C B- 22% 13% 65% D C+ C+ A+ A A+ A C+ A-
1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21 0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17
Dec
9		 Rhode Island D+ D- B+ C+ D+ 51% 14% 35% B+ C- C F F A+ C- F D A D- F B C- 42% 11% 47% D+ D+ A+ F C+ A+ F F F
0.96 48% 43% 35% -4 +2 0.98 31% 0.5 .15 16% .33 63% .21 0.94 67% 50% 29% +2 +1 1.08 17% 1.8 .30 31% .57 85% .48
Dec
12		 East Texas A&M A C D+ A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A A+ A C A- D- B+ A+ A A- C F A+ B- 40% 12% 48% D C+ D+ C+ C- A+ D A+ C
1.29 58% 33% 58% +13 +3 1.34 41% 1.1 .45 20% .38 79% .30 0.84 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.92 27% 0.8 .22 28% .28 56% .16
Dec
15		 Houston Christian A A+ B+ F B- 46% 19% 35% C- B- D+ A+ A+ A F B F D+ A+ A+ F B- 27% 27% 47% A B D- F F C- D- F F
1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28
Dec
29		 Michigan C- F+ D+ F D+ 27% 29% 44% C+ D+ B F C- A+ A+ C- A D+ F F A- D+ 48% 10% 42% C+ D+ F F F B+ F B+ F
0.85 39% 32% 24% -13 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23 1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45
Jan
2		 Lamar A+ C A+ B+ A- 45% 21% 34% B- A- A+ D- B+ A A+ A- A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ F F F C F F F
1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57 1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50
Jan
5		 Stephen F. Austin C+ B+ A+ D- B 33% 16% 51% C B A F F+ A D- F F C+ A- F B+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F B F+ F F A+ A- A+ A-
1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15 1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09
Jan
10		 SE Louisiana B- B- F+ B B- 54% 14% 32% A B A F D- A- F C- F C A- A+ B- B+ 49% 3% 49% F C+ F F F A+ F B F
1.16 63% 29% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 0.6 .25 16% .28 73% .21 0.97 47% 0% 29% -10 +3 0.89 37% 1.4 .50 27% .61 64% .39
Jan
12		 Nicholls St. B+ C+ C- A+ B- 42% 20% 38% C- C+ F A+ C+ A+ C- A B- B+ B- A+ D- D+ 36% 4% 60% F D C- A+ A A+ B- A B+
1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30 0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14
Jan
17		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- B A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% C- D+ A F C A+ A A+ A+ F+ D D- F F 25% 16% 59% B- F B F F B F C- F
1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37 1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27
Jan
19		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C- D+ F D 51% 24% 24% C D A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A+ A- F+ C- A+ C- 30% 35% 35% A+ C+ A+ A- A+ B F C F
1.17 58% 33% 22% -5 0 0.92 50% 1.4 .68 19% .54 69% .38 0.90 64% 38% 23% -4 -2 0.89 17% 0.8 .13 20% .51 67% .34
Jan
24		 New Orleans C+ C F F F+ 63% 8% 29% A+ D A+ F C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C- C+ B- 49% 13% 38% F C A F C+ A+ F B F
1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42 0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39
Jan
27		 SE Louisiana B A- A+ F B 48% 23% 30% B- B D+ C+ C- B- A+ D+ A+ C+ D A+ F D 22% 22% 57% B- D B- F F A+ F F F
1.14 68% 56% 25% +5 0 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 18% .53 72% .39 0.99 63% 13% 38% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.4 .36 27% .74 78% .58
Jan
31		 Lamar B- C F A+ D- 28% 40% 33% F F+ B- D- C A C A+ A C- B- B- D C 27% 38% 36% B C F A+ C C+ D+ D+ D+
1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34 1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Stephen F. Austin F F D- F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F B+ A+ A+ F C B- C+ A A+ F C B 33% 24% 43% D+ B D B C A- F F F
0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28
Feb
7		 Incarnate Word A- A+ F A+ A+ 53% 9% 37% B+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ F A C+ A- B F C- 39% 9% 52% F D F C F A+ F B- F
1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36 1.03 46% 33% 41% +1 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41
Feb
9		 Houston Christian D- C A+ F+ C- 60% 19% 21% B- C F B D- B- C+ D+ C+ C C F A+ B- 40% 23% 36% C+ B- C F D- A F F F
1.08 62% 56% 30% +5 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21 1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.4 13.7 22.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 8.2 21.6 30.9 14.8 77.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.3 22.7 38.3 28.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 48.0% 13.7    5.1 8.6
18-4 19.3% 7.4    1.7 5.7
17-5 5.0% 1.1    0.1 1.0
16-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10
11-11
Total 22.2% 22.2 6.9 15.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 28.5% 53.0% 52.9% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 4.7 9.9 0.4 13.4 0.2%
18-4 38.3% 46.6% 46.6% 12.0 1.9 13.6 2.3 0.0 20.5
17-5 22.7% 43.2% 43.2% 12.2 0.3 6.9 2.4 0.1 12.9
16-6 8.3% 40.4% 40.4% 12.4 0.0 2.0 1.3 0.1 4.9
15-7 2.0% 26.4% 26.4% 12.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-8 0.3% 25.5% 25.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 46.7% 46.6% 0.0% 12.0 53.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.1% 100.0% 11.7 0.1 31.2 66.1 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.8% 0.3% 11.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6%