IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Montana
Big Sky
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.9	#189
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.6	#192
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.1	#164

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.8	#230

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.4%	24.0%	14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	13.4	14.2

.500 or above	59.4%	80.5%	55.0%
.500 or above in Conference	72.4%	84.0%	70.0%
Conference Champion	21.7%	32.8%	19.4%
Last Place in Conference	5.1%	2.2%	5.6%

First Four	1.5%	0.9%	1.6%
First Round	16.4%	24.0%	14.8%
Second Round	0.9%	2.1%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 4	3 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 5	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	95	@ Stanford	L	65-75	17%
Nov 11, 2025	86	@ UNLV	L	64-75	16%
Nov 14, 2025	256	Cal Poly	W	84-78	71%
Nov 18, 2025	35	@ Texas A&M	L	62-80	5%
Nov 23, 2025	218	Lamar	W	69-65	66%
Nov 25, 2025	197	Oakland	W	70-67	61%
Dec 03, 2025	208	North Dakota St.	W	72-68	63%
Dec 06, 2025	315	@ North Dakota	W	77-73	64%
Dec 20, 2025	11	@ Louisville	L	63-86	2%
Jan 01, 2026	263	Northern Arizona	W	75-68	71%
Jan 03, 2026	190	Northern Colorado	W	76-73	60%
Jan 08, 2026	235	@ Idaho	L	72-73	47%
Jan 10, 2026	247	@ Eastern Washington	L	72-73	49%
Jan 17, 2026	217	@ Montana St.	L	69-71	45%
Jan 19, 2026	263	@ Northern Arizona	W	72-71	51%
Jan 22, 2026	279	Weber St.	W	73-65	74%
Jan 24, 2026	282	Idaho St.	W	73-65	74%
Jan 29, 2026	213	@ Portland St.	L	70-72	44%
Jan 31, 2026	272	@ Sacramento St.	W	69-68	54%
Feb 05, 2026	247	Eastern Washington	W	75-69	68%
Feb 07, 2026	235	Idaho	W	75-70	67%
Feb 14, 2026	217	Montana St.	W	72-68	64%
Feb 19, 2026	282	@ Idaho St.	W	70-68	56%
Feb 21, 2026	279	@ Weber St.	W	70-68	55%
Feb 26, 2026	272	Sacramento St.	W	72-65	72%
Feb 28, 2026	213	Portland St.	W	73-69	64%
Mar 02, 2026	190	@ Northern Colorado	L	73-76	41%
Projected Record						14 - 13	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	1.4	3.5	5.0	5.4	3.9	1.8	0.6		21.7	1st
2nd											0.3	2.1	5.2	4.7	2.7	0.8	0.1				15.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	2.5	5.3	4.0	1.3	0.2						13.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.3	5.1	2.9	0.6	0.0							11.1	4th
5th								0.1	1.7	4.6	2.5	0.4	0.0								9.3	5th
6th							0.1	1.4	4.0	2.3	0.3	0.0									8.2	6th
7th						0.2	1.2	3.1	2.3	0.3	0.0										7.1	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	1.1	2.5	1.7	0.3	0.0											5.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.4	1.1	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.0												4.5	9th
10th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0													3.0	10th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.2	2.1	3.5	5.0	6.6	8.6	9.8	10.7	10.8	11.2	9.5	7.9	6.1	4.0	1.8	0.6			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	100.0%	1.8		1.8	0.0
16-2	97.8%	3.9		3.6	0.3
15-3	87.7%	5.4		4.3	1.0	0.0
14-4	63.8%	5.0		3.1	1.7	0.2
13-5	36.4%	3.5		1.4	1.5	0.5	0.1
12-6	12.3%	1.4		0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0								0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	21.7%	21.7		15.1	5.0	1.2	0.2	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		61.5%	61.5%		11.7								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2
17-1	1.8%		54.2%	54.2%		12.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.8
16-2	4.0%		50.5%	50.5%		12.9												0.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.1		2.0
15-3	6.1%		38.1%	38.1%		13.3												0.0	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0	3.8
14-4	7.9%		31.8%	31.8%		14.1												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.5	0.1	5.4
13-5	9.5%		24.9%	24.9%		14.6													0.1	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.2	7.1
12-6	11.2%		18.5%	18.5%		15.3													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.4	9.1
11-7	10.8%		13.3%	13.3%		16.8														0.1	0.3	0.7	0.5	9.3
10-8	10.7%		10.1%	10.1%		17.1														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	9.6
9-9	9.8%		7.0%	7.0%		17.3															0.0	0.2	0.5	9.1
8-10	8.6%		3.2%	3.2%		17.8																0.0	0.3	8.3
7-11	6.6%		2.6%	2.6%		16.7																0.0	0.2	6.4
6-12	5.0%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
5-13	3.5%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
4-14	2.1%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
3-15	1.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.4%	16.4%	0.0%	14.6								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.4	2.0	3.5	4.4	4.0	2.7	83.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	9.0									100.0