Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#153
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#98
Pace70.8#152
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#125
First Shot+2.6#103
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#246
Layup/Dunks+1.1#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#96
Freethrows-1.1#257
Improvement+1.5#71

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot-0.8#201
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#209
Layups/Dunks-3.3#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#28
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement-1.7#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 20.2% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 91.8% 93.5% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 83.3% 71.6%
Conference Champion 27.8% 28.9% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.3% 5.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round19.5% 20.1% 14.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 291 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 67%     1 - 0 +2.9 +1.8 +0.1
  Fri, Nov 21 132 St. Thomas L 72-73 46%     1 - 1 +0.7 -3.0 +3.7
  Sat, Nov 22 248 @Portland W 86-80 OT 60%     2 - 1 +4.1 +1.8 +1.6
  Sun, Nov 23 270 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 73%     3 - 1 -1.7 +8.6 -10.9
  Wed, Nov 26 320 @Air Force W 71-53 75%     4 - 1 +11.4 +7.2 +6.8
  Wed, Dec 3 228 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 56%     5 - 1 +3.9 +4.4 -0.3
  Sat, Dec 6 276 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 82%     6 - 1 -7.2 +2.2 -9.5
  Tue, Dec 16 27 @Texas Tech L 90-101 6%     6 - 2 +6.7 +25.4 -18.9
  Sat, Dec 20 315 Denver W 87-74 88%    
  Sun, Dec 28 66 @Colorado L 74-85 15%    
  Thu, Jan 1 169 @Montana St. L 72-74 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 204 @Montana W 79-78 52%    
  Thu, Jan 8 161 Idaho St. W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 216 Weber St. W 81-74 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 177 @Portland St. L 73-74 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 281 @Sacramento St. W 80-76 64%    
  Mon, Jan 19 169 Montana St. W 75-71 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 271 @Northern Arizona W 74-71 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 167 Idaho W 78-74 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 249 Eastern Washington W 84-75 78%    
  Thu, Feb 5 216 @Weber St. W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 161 @Idaho St. L 71-73 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 281 Sacramento St. W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 177 Portland St. W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 271 Northern Arizona W 77-68 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 249 @Eastern Washington W 81-78 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 167 @Idaho L 75-77 44%    
  Mon, Mar 2 204 Montana W 82-76 71%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.4 7.5 5.7 3.4 1.1 0.2 27.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.9 5.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 5.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 13.3 13.6 12.3 9.4 6.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
16-2 99.2% 3.4    3.3 0.1
15-3 94.2% 5.7    5.0 0.6 0.0
14-4 79.5% 7.5    5.4 1.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 52.3% 6.4    3.2 2.6 0.6 0.1
12-6 22.0% 3.0    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.8% 27.8 19.0 6.6 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 56.9% 56.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 48.0% 47.7% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6%
16-2 3.4% 45.5% 45.5% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9
15-3 6.0% 36.5% 36.5% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.8
14-4 9.4% 33.3% 33.3% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 0.1 6.3
13-5 12.3% 26.6% 26.6% 13.6 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 9.0
12-6 13.6% 21.2% 21.2% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.7
11-7 13.3% 17.5% 17.5% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 11.0
10-8 12.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 10.8
9-9 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 9.0
8-10 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.1
7-11 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.8
6-12 2.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.7
5-13 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.5 7.2 3.1 0.5 80.5 0.0%