Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#59
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#85
Pace67.8#229
Improvement-0.8#235

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#45
First Shot+5.1#60
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#63
Layup/Dunks+6.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#274
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement+1.0#97

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#101
First Shot+2.2#100
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#190
Layups/Dunks-0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#48
Freethrows-1.1#258
Improvement-1.8#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 21.3% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.5% 21.1% 10.1%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.3
.500 or above 50.6% 63.0% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 19.0% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 5.1% 7.7%
First Four4.4% 5.6% 3.2%
First Round13.3% 18.2% 8.4%
Second Round6.3% 8.8% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Neutral) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 36 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +10.1 -5.6 +16.5
  Fri, Nov 7 288 Boston University W 76-52 95%     2 - 0 +14.1 +6.8 +11.2
  Mon, Nov 10 329 Cleveland St. W 110-63 97%     3 - 0 +34.0 +22.7 +8.9
  Fri, Nov 14 109 @DePaul W 81-79 61%     4 - 0 +8.6 +16.0 -7.3
  Fri, Nov 21 25 Virginia L 78-83 29%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.3 +0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 86 South Carolina W 79-77 62%     5 - 1 +8.3 +17.6 -9.1
  Thu, Nov 27 51 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 46%     5 - 2 +5.4 +8.7 -3.1
  Wed, Dec 3 43 @Wisconsin L 73-85 30%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +2.8 +7.4 -4.7
  Sat, Dec 6 31 Ohio St. L 82-86 45%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +6.7 +11.4 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 13 317 Jackson St. W 93-53 97%     6 - 4 +27.9 +13.5 +12.9
  Tue, Dec 16 211 Valparaiso W 86-70 92%     7 - 4 +9.7 +13.7 -3.6
  Sat, Dec 20 57 Butler L 79-80 49%    
  Tue, Dec 30 283 Howard W 84-65 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 96 Minnesota W 74-67 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 11 @Michigan St. L 66-78 14%    
  Sun, Jan 11 130 @Rutgers W 76-71 66%    
  Wed, Jan 14 12 Illinois L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 24 Nebraska L 75-78 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 36 @USC L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 30 @UCLA L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Jan 29 105 Penn St. W 83-75 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 48 Washington W 77-76 55%    
  Wed, Feb 4 12 @Illinois L 73-85 15%    
  Sun, Feb 8 22 @Iowa L 67-76 20%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 72-86 10%    
  Sat, Feb 14 24 @Nebraska L 72-81 22%    
  Wed, Feb 18 95 Maryland W 80-73 74%    
  Tue, Feb 24 26 @Indiana L 72-80 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 62 Oregon W 78-75 62%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 Purdue L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Mar 7 96 @Minnesota W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.9 4.2 3.8 0.5 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.6 1.7 0.1 11.7 12th
13th 0.2 3.2 6.8 3.0 0.2 13.4 13th
14th 0.1 2.2 6.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.8 14th
15th 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.6 0.7 0.0 11.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.7 3.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 9.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 6.1 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 3.0 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.0 7.8 12.3 15.5 16.0 14.8 11.7 7.9 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.3% 100.0% 1.1% 98.9% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.0% 98.0% 0.7% 97.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
12-8 2.3% 92.5% 0.6% 92.0% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 92.5%
11-9 4.5% 83.5% 0.4% 83.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 83.4%
10-10 7.9% 57.8% 0.3% 57.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 3.3 57.7%
9-11 11.7% 24.4% 0.2% 24.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.1 8.9 24.3%
8-12 14.8% 6.1% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 13.9 6.1%
7-13 16.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.0 0.4%
6-14 15.5% 15.5
5-15 12.3% 12.3
4-16 7.8% 7.8
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.6% 0.1% 15.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.9 0.2 84.4 15.5%