Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#194
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#158
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 12.0% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 11.7 13.2
.500 or above 31.1% 67.8% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 69.9% 40.3%
Conference Champion 4.2% 10.9% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 4.9% 14.8%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round3.9% 11.7% 3.8%
Second Round0.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 47 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 60-83 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 88   @ Utah L 68-79 16%    
  Nov 19, 2025 155   Wyoming W 68-67 53%    
  Nov 26, 2025 282   Idaho St. W 71-66 66%    
  Nov 28, 2025 235   Idaho W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 02, 2025 73   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-83 13%    
  Dec 06, 2025 285   @ Texas Southern W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 17, 2025 113   @ Oregon St. L 64-73 23%    
  Dec 21, 2025 138   @ New Mexico St. L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 02, 2026 156   @ Western Kentucky L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 04, 2026 147   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-75 33%    
  Jan 08, 2026 242   Delaware W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 10, 2026 97   Liberty L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 14, 2026 153   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 17, 2026 210   @ Florida International L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 21, 2026 142   Kennesaw St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 24, 2026 156   Western Kentucky W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 28, 2026 162   @ Missouri St. L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 31, 2026 143   Louisiana Tech W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 04, 2026 157   UTEP W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 07, 2026 143   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 14, 2026 142   @ Kennesaw St. L 73-79 32%    
  Feb 18, 2026 147   Middle Tennessee W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 21, 2026 153   Jacksonville St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 26, 2026 210   Florida International W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 28, 2026 162   Missouri St. W 67-66 54%    
  Mar 05, 2026 242   @ Delaware L 76-77 48%    
  Mar 07, 2026 97   @ Liberty L 64-74 20%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 10.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.8 7.6 8.6 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.0 8.3 7.0 5.5 4.0 2.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 88.3% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 65.3% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 34.9% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 80.1% 19.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 39.2% 39.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 36.9% 34.9% 1.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.0%
17-3 1.1% 35.0% 33.8% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8%
16-4 1.6% 22.2% 22.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
15-5 2.8% 20.0% 20.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.2
14-6 4.0% 13.6% 13.6% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
13-7 5.5% 10.8% 10.8% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.9
12-8 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5
11-9 8.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
10-10 10.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8
9-11 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
8-12 10.1% 0.7% 0.7% 18.5 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-13 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 18.4 0.0 0.0 9.7
6-14 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.6
5-15 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.6
4-16 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-17 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-18 2.2% 2.2
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%