Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#204
Pace69.4#188
Improvement+1.3#94

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#180
First Shot-1.4#213
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#137
Layup/Dunks-1.8#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#149
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-0.7#244

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#285
First Shot-4.2#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#125
Layups/Dunks-1.7#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#203
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement+2.0#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.6% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 52.5% 62.7% 35.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 74.6% 48.3%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.9% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.0% 5.2%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round5.9% 7.1% 4.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 199 @Tulane L 72-85 33%     0 - 1 -12.5 +2.9 -16.3
  Fri, Nov 7 361 South Carolina St. W 82-72 90%     1 - 1 -7.9 -1.3 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 12 321 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 59%     2 - 1 -3.6 +8.9 -12.7
  Fri, Nov 14 20 @Arkansas L 75-79 3%     2 - 2 +14.7 +7.9 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 16 286 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 48%     3 - 2 +3.3 +5.6 -2.8
  Wed, Nov 19 184 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 52%     3 - 3 -19.6 -13.4 -6.5
  Fri, Nov 21 135 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 20%     3 - 4 -4.4 +10.7 -16.2
  Tue, Nov 25 337 Georgia St. W 78-63 74%     4 - 4 +4.2 +1.9 +2.3
  Wed, Nov 26 82 Utah Valley L 45-89 15%     4 - 5 -37.2 -25.0 -10.1
  Fri, Dec 5 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57-83 6%     4 - 6 -12.1 -8.2 -3.8
  Sun, Dec 7 162 Cornell W 93-90 46%     5 - 6 -0.2 +6.0 -6.4
  Thu, Jan 1 331 @VMI W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 291 @UNC Greensboro L 75-76 51%    
  Wed, Jan 7 297 Western Carolina W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 247 @Chattanooga L 74-76 42%    
  Wed, Jan 14 152 Furman L 73-75 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 124 East Tennessee St. L 72-76 36%    
  Wed, Jan 21 221 @Wofford L 73-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 247 Chattanooga W 77-73 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 152 @Furman L 70-78 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 297 @Western Carolina W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 354 The Citadel W 80-67 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 170 Mercer L 78-79 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 221 Wofford W 76-73 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 124 @East Tennessee St. L 69-79 18%    
  Thu, Feb 19 354 @The Citadel W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 170 @Mercer L 75-81 29%    
  Thu, Feb 26 331 VMI W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 291 UNC Greensboro W 78-72 70%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.5 4.6 1.4 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.9 5.1 1.2 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.0 4.3 0.8 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 4.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.7 9.4 12.8 15.0 14.7 12.8 9.7 6.6 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 80.4% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 52.9% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.3% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 4.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 43.8% 43.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 29.8% 29.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.6% 25.3% 25.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
14-4 3.4% 20.0% 20.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.8
13-5 6.6% 14.4% 14.4% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 5.7
12-6 9.7% 11.1% 11.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 8.6
11-7 12.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 11.8
10-8 14.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 13.8
9-9 15.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.1 0.5 14.4
8-10 12.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 12.4
7-11 9.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 9.3
6-12 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-13 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 2.4 93.5 0.0%