Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.9 212
Expected Predictive Rating -3.8 226
Pace 67.4 220
Improvement +5.0 20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #157 C- D A- C+ C-
Defense D+ #268 C C F+ C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 60% 124 -1.6 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 36% 230 -0.5 208
Three Pointers 45% 90 31% 306 +0.0 176
1st FG Attempt 0.98 236 -2.1 239
Second Chance 24.1% 340 1.00 214 0.24 326
Turnovers 13.3% 16
Freethrows 0.35 44 67% 332 0.24 120
Total Offense +0.1 157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 212 56% 127 +1.3 132
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 10 43% 326 -5.0 364
Three Pointers 33% 357 36% 280 +3.0 64
1st FG Attempt 1.03 200 -0.7 202
Second Chance 27.7% 74 1.10 295 0.31 159
Turnovers 13.2% 347
Freethrows 0.29 145 76% 339 0.22 183
Total Defense -3.0 268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 220 -1.2 24
Shot Type Accuracy -1.9 236 +1.9 249
Possession Length 17.5 200 17.4 208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 336 0.16 126
Improvement +2.8 #55 +2.2 #71

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 10.4% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 60.1% 76.7% 35.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 94.4% 67.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.1% 2.1%
First Round8.4% 9.8% 6.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 182 @Tulane L 72 - 85 33% -6  16% 0 - 1 D- -11 C+ +3 C- B B- F -15 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 91% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -8 D+ -3 D- D- B+ D+ -5 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 311 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 62% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D C+ B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 21 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  1% 2 - 2 A- +16 B- +4 B- D- A+ A +12 A A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 189 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 35% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +8 C+ +3 C F A+ B +4 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 238 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 67% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -22 F -17 F F+ B D -6 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 164 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 30% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -7 B +5 D- C+ A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 274 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 64% +7  90% 4 - 4 B +9 C +1 C B+ F+ B+ +8 A+ D D
 Wed, Nov 26 94 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 22% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -39 F -29 F F D+ D- -8 D- C+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F A- C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 156 Cornell W 93 - 90 51% -3  23% 5 - 6 C -0 C +1 B- D+ C+ C -1 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 358 @VMI W 78 - 58 81% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B +8 C- -2 B- F A A +10 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 305 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 60% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B+ +7 C C+ A- F -20 F+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 282 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 75% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +2 C- C A D -7 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 279 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 54% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -13 C- -2 C+ F B+ F+ -11 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 174 Furman L 73 - 77 54% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -4 C- D- B D+ -4 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 130 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 43% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -2 A- +11 B D A+ F -13 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 196 @Wofford L 78 - 88 36% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D -9 B +6 B C- B+ F -16 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 279 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 75% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 D F+ A+ C- -2 C C F
 Thu, Jan 29 174 @Furman L 73 - 78 31% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B +5 D B A+ D- -9 F+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 1 282 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 54% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B C D+ B +4 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 5 335 The Citadel W 78 - 64 86% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C -0 C +1 B+ F C- C -1 C+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 170 Mercer W 69 - 49 53% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D -5 D+ F+ B+ A+ +23 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 196 Wofford W 78 - 76 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 130 @East Tennessee St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 335 @The Citadel W 74 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @Mercer L 77 - 82 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 358 VMI W 83 - 68 92%
 Sat, Feb 28 305 UNC Greensboro W 81 - 72 79%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3 C +0 C- D A- D+ -3 C C F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C- D C- 35% 20% 45% C- C- D- C- D A- B D- C+ D+ C+ D- D+ D+ 38% 30% 33% B+ C B- D+ C F+ C+ D- C
1.09 60% 36% 31% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.0 .24 13% .35 67% .24 1.13 56% 43% 36% +2 -1 1.03 28% 1.1 .31 13% .29 76% .27
Nov
3		 Tulane C+ D+ F A- C 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- B+ B B- C- F D F D- F F F 29% 29% 41% A F A+ B+ A+ D A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B F+ 48% 4% 48% B D- F A D- B+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ F B- D+ 21% 42% 37% A- C- A+ F D D- C+ F D-
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ C+ B+ A+ D A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% B+ F A+ C+ A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -2 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C B- 39% 20% 41% C+ B- D F+ D- A+ F A+ D+ A A D- D- B+ 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C D+ D+ D
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F C C+ 22% 14% 64% D C D- F F A+ D+ C D+ B D A+ C B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D A+ B+ D+ F A+ D+
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B B F D- D A- F D+ F+ 38% 40% 23% A- D- F C- F A+ D+ A- C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C D- D A+ C+ A+ D+ C D+ F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C D C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- C- 42% 12% 47% B C C- A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ D- C D D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F C F F D+ F F F D- D+ C F D- 64% 14% 21% D- D- B+ D C+ D B F C+
0.61 22% 27% 25% -20 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F F F A- C+ D+ C C+ A D+ F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B- 41% 22% 37% C- B- D- A- D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C A+ D- B- A+ 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C+ D F C+ B+ B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI C- A+ F A B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F B+ A F C+ A+ C+ 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ B- A B+ D A D- B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +12 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B+ A+ F F+ C- 31% 14% 55% C+ C C B C+ A- A+ F B+ F A C F F 32% 44% 24% A+ F+ C- F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +7 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina C+ D B A- C- 37% 21% 42% C C- D+ B- C A C+ A+ A- D A- A+ F A- 52% 28% 20% C A- F F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga C- A+ F D+ C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F C+ F B+ A+ F A F+ B- D+ F+ D+ 50% 20% 30% D- D+ A+ F C+ F D- F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B F F D 46% 15% 38% A- C- F A+ D- B A+ A- A+ D+ C+ F A C 27% 24% 49% A+ C+ F+ A C+ F C+ C- C+
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A- F+ A+ A+ A- 24% 16% 60% D B F A D A+ D A+ C- F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C+ F C F F+
1.25 50% 50% 43% +9 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +12 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B A- A+ F+ B 41% 12% 47% C+ B D B C- B+ D- C+ D F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F F D+ F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +4 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga B- F A+ D- D- 40% 4% 56% A D F D+ F+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A D D C- 24% 20% 56% B- C B+ F C F F A D-
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D B C+ B A+ A+ F B- D- F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F+ C+ F F B- F F F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B- A+ F B B- 36% 11% 52% B B C C- C D+ A+ D+ A+ B B B A- B+ 35% 26% 39% B+ B+ A+ B+ A F F+ F+ F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A 30% 24% 46% F+ B+ D F F C- A+ C- A+ C C- F A+ C- 30% 34% 36% A+ C+ F F+ F D+ C A+ A-
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D C A D- D+ 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F+ B+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D B- C- B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 1.8 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.0 9.0 0.9 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 5.2 18.2 5.1 28.5 4th
5th 0.0 3.4 19.8 11.8 0.3 35.2 5th
6th 0.3 7.1 5.0 0.3 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.1 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 2.8 13.8 30.1 34.2 16.0 2.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.9% 19.9% 19.9% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.4
11-7 16.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 13.7
10-8 34.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.5 0.0 1.5 1.6 31.0
9-9 30.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.6 27.9
8-10 13.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.2
7-11 2.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 15.3 91.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.0 17.9 61.5 20.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%