IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Samford
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.9	#166
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.5	#24
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.2	#248

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.5%	18.0%	10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.2	13.9

.500 or above	62.7%	80.7%	56.6%
.500 or above in Conference	71.9%	82.2%	68.3%
Conference Champion	14.9%	22.4%	12.4%
Last Place in Conference	3.0%	1.3%	3.6%

First Four	0.7%	0.4%	0.8%
First Round	12.5%	18.1%	10.6%
Second Round	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 25.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 5	4 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 4	17 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	116	@ Tulane	L	73-80	25%
Nov 07, 2025	311	South Carolina St.	W	83-72	84%
Nov 12, 2025	285	@ Texas Southern	W	79-76	61%
Nov 14, 2025	17	@ Arkansas	L	68-89	3%
Nov 16, 2025	358	@ Central Arkansas	W	81-70	83%
Nov 19, 2025	181	Florida Gulf Coast	W	75-71	63%
Nov 21, 2025	138	@ New Mexico St.	L	69-74	31%
Nov 25, 2025	284	Georgia St.	W	82-76	70%
Nov 26, 2025	119	Utah Valley	L	75-78	39%
Dec 05, 2025	58	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	66-80	12%
Dec 07, 2025	160	Cornell	W	85-82	59%
Jan 01, 2026	296	@ VMI	W	79-75	62%
Jan 03, 2026	225	@ UNC Greensboro	L	71-72	49%
Jan 07, 2026	273	Western Carolina	W	83-75	75%
Jan 10, 2026	125	@ Chattanooga	L	74-80	30%
Jan 14, 2026	133	Furman	W	76-75	51%
Jan 17, 2026	152	East Tennessee St.	W	74-72	56%
Jan 21, 2026	206	@ Wofford	L	73-74	46%
Jan 24, 2026	125	Chattanooga	L	77-78	50%
Jan 29, 2026	133	@ Furman	L	73-79	32%
Jan 31, 2026	273	@ Western Carolina	W	80-78	57%
Feb 05, 2026	342	The Citadel	W	80-66	87%
Feb 07, 2026	248	Mercer	W	83-76	72%
Feb 11, 2026	206	Wofford	W	76-71	65%
Feb 14, 2026	152	@ East Tennessee St.	L	71-75	36%
Feb 19, 2026	342	@ The Citadel	W	77-69	74%
Feb 21, 2026	248	@ Mercer	W	80-79	53%
Feb 26, 2026	296	VMI	W	82-72	78%
Feb 28, 2026	225	UNC Greensboro	W	74-68	68%
Projected Record						16 - 13	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	1.9	3.8	4.0	2.9	1.5	0.3		14.9	1st
2nd											0.1	1.2	3.7	5.3	3.6	1.2	0.1				15.2	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.6	4.8	5.4	2.3	0.4	0.0					14.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.8	5.2	4.6	1.5	0.2	0.0						13.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.0	4.7	3.8	1.0	0.1								11.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	2.1	4.4	2.8	0.8	0.0									10.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.4	1.7	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.0										8.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.4	1.5	2.4	1.4	0.3	0.0											5.9	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0												3.8	9th
10th	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0														1.7	10th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	2.0	3.3	5.0	7.2	9.0	10.0	11.5	11.7	11.2	9.7	7.8	5.2	3.0	1.5	0.3			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	100.0%	1.5		1.4	0.0
16-2	95.5%	2.9		2.6	0.3	0.0
15-3	76.8%	4.0		2.9	1.0	0.1
14-4	48.9%	3.8		1.9	1.6	0.3	0.0
13-5	19.3%	1.9		0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1
12-6	4.7%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.9%	14.9		9.7	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		53.6%	52.4%	1.2%	10.8							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		2.4%
17-1	1.5%		52.2%	51.6%	0.6%	11.8											0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.7		1.2%
16-2	3.0%		43.1%	43.1%		12.3											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		1.7
15-3	5.2%		31.7%	31.7%		12.9												0.1	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.1		3.5
14-4	7.8%		26.4%	26.4%		13.3												0.0	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0	5.7
13-5	9.7%		20.1%	20.1%		13.8													0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	7.7
12-6	11.2%		13.7%	13.7%		14.4													0.1	0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	9.7
11-7	11.7%		11.2%	11.2%		15.3													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	10.4
10-8	11.5%		7.2%	7.2%		16.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	10.7
9-9	10.0%		4.8%	4.8%		16.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	9.5
8-10	9.0%		3.2%	3.2%		18.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	8.7
7-11	7.2%		1.4%	1.4%		17.9																0.0	0.1	7.1
6-12	5.0%		0.7%	0.7%		17.8																	0.0	5.0
5-13	3.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.3
4-14	2.0%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
3-15	1.0%																							1.0
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	14.0							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	2.1	3.3	3.3	2.1	1.3	87.5		0.0%