San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#189
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#211
Pace63.9#317
Improvement+2.7#34

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#148
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#44
Layup/Dunks-3.8#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows-1.3#270
Improvement+1.7#63

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#254
First Shot-1.5#223
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#268
Layups/Dunks-6.2#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows+3.3#23
Improvement+1.0#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 11.7 13.8
.500 or above 4.0% 11.6% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 23.3% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.1% 4.2% 13.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 82 - 13
Quad 33 - 74 - 20
Quad 46 - 110 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 120 @Utah L 75-84 23%     0 - 1 -3.1 +3.0 -6.0
  Sat, Nov 8 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-85 30%     0 - 2 -7.5 +9.1 -17.9
  Thu, Nov 13 11 @Michigan St. L 60-79 3%     0 - 3 +2.1 +3.1 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 203 Southern W 80-66 65%     1 - 3 +8.3 +6.2 +2.1
  Tue, Nov 25 82 Tulsa L 51-81 20%     1 - 4 -22.9 -14.2 -13.0
  Wed, Nov 26 288 Loyola Chicago W 63-51 69%     2 - 4 +5.1 -2.1 +9.6
  Sun, Nov 30 122 UC Irvine L 63-72 43%     2 - 5 -9.1 -0.9 -8.7
  Fri, Dec 5 248 San Diego W 86-69 72%     3 - 5 +9.1 +4.7 +3.8
  Tue, Dec 9 276 Long Beach St. W 89-83 OT 76%     4 - 5 -3.1 +9.0 -12.2
  Sat, Dec 13 93 Stanford L 82-86 33%     4 - 6 -1.3 +11.2 -12.5
  Sat, Dec 20 72 @New Mexico L 69-82 12%    
  Tue, Dec 30 52 San Diego St. L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 44 @Utah St. L 65-81 7%    
  Tue, Jan 6 184 Fresno St. W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 92 @Grand Canyon L 65-76 17%    
  Tue, Jan 13 322 Air Force W 72-61 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 139 UNLV L 76-77 49%    
  Tue, Jan 20 98 @Nevada L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 89 @Wyoming L 68-79 16%    
  Tue, Jan 27 47 Boise St. L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Jan 31 72 New Mexico L 72-79 28%    
  Sat, Feb 7 70 @Colorado St. L 65-78 12%    
  Tue, Feb 10 139 @UNLV L 73-79 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 92 Grand Canyon L 68-73 34%    
  Tue, Feb 17 98 Nevada L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 47 @Boise St. L 61-77 8%    
  Tue, Feb 24 322 @Air Force W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 70 Colorado St. L 68-75 27%    
  Tue, Mar 3 184 @Fresno St. L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Mar 7 89 Wyoming L 71-76 34%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.7 0.3 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 16.4 9th
10th 0.4 3.1 7.5 8.7 4.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 25.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 6.1 8.9 7.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 27.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.4 8.3 12.9 15.7 15.7 13.7 10.8 7.7 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 30.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.6% 2.3% 2.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.6
10-10 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 4.5
9-11 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.7
8-12 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 10.8
7-13 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-14 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
5-15 15.7% 15.7
4-16 12.9% 12.9
3-17 8.3% 8.3
2-18 4.4% 4.4
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%