Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #317
Expected Predictive Rating -15.9 #355
Pace 70.1 #153
Improvement +3.2 #44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #351 F+ D- C D+ C-
Defense #219 C- B- D+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 0.90 #364 -6.8 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.67 #306 -0.6 #210
Three Pointers 44% #126 0.90 #325 -1.1 #218
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #360 -8.5 #361
Freethrows 0.30 #194 65% #358 0.19 #269
Second Chance 26.0% #303 0.83 #361 0.22 #354
Turnovers 16.7% #196
Total Offense -8.2 #351

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #2 1.18 #207 -7.2 #359
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #231 0.69 #79 +1.3 #93
Three Pointers 31% #360 1.09 #287 +3.7 #46
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #251 -2.2 #252
Freethrows 0.30 #195 71% #122 0.22 #175
Second Chance 30.8% #187 0.87 #19 0.27 #64
Turnovers 14.5% #297
Total Defense -1.4 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #242 2.1% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.9% #362 2.0% #220
Possession Length 18.3 #272 15.9 #15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.24 #346
Improvement +1.5 #107 +1.7 #83

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 4.1% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 4.9% 14.4%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 46 - 157 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 57 @Butler L 58 - 88 3% -18  0 - 1 -17 -14 F F B- -2 C A- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 353 VMI L 74 - 78 74% +3  0 - 2 -20 -16 F F B -4 C- C+ D-
 Wed, Nov 12 283 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 30% -9  0 - 3 -19 -15 F D- D- -1 B- D A-
 Thu, Nov 20 230 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 30% -8  0 - 4 -10 +3 C+ F B+ -13 F C C
 Sat, Nov 22 135 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 15% -11  0 - 5 -9 -1 C+ F C+ -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 167 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 14% +6  1 - 5 +10 -6 D B- F +16 A+ C+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 257 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 24% -13  1 - 6 -16 -4 D+ F+ A- -12 F D+ F+
 Sun, Dec 7 197 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 17% -11  1 - 7 -21 -13 F+ F C+ -10 D- A F+
 Thu, Dec 18 280 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 51% -4  1 - 8 0 - 1 -25 -14 F D+ B- -12 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 299 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 56% +5  1 - 9 0 - 2 -15 -14 F F F -1 B A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 263 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 25% -6  1 - 10 0 - 3 -6 -13 F D+ F +6 B+ D A
 Sat, Jan 3 250 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 23% -5  1 - 11 0 - 4 -5 +6 B- D D -11 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 246 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 43% -5  1 - 12 0 - 5 -16 +1 D B- F+ -17 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 229 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 40% +17  1 - 13 0 - 6 -24 -11 F D+ F -15 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 339 @Tennessee Tech W 71 - 54 45% -0  2 - 13 1 - 6 +9 -3 F F+ A+ +12 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 226 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 73 20% -4  2 - 14 1 - 7 -7 -5 D- D- D+ -3 D+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 309 Eastern Illinois L 51 - 59 OT 59% +3  2 - 15 1 - 8 -20 -25 F D- F +5 A- B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 360 Western Illinois W 96 - 64 79% +22  3 - 15 2 - 8 +14 +12 B D D +0 B- B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 250 Lindenwood L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 263 SIU Edwardsville L 64 - 65 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 229 @Tennessee Martin L 62 - 71 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 246 @Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 76 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 226 Tennessee St. L 74 - 77 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 339 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 360 @Western Illinois W 69 - 66 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 309 @Eastern Illinois L 63 - 67 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 299 @Morehead St. L 69 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 280 @Arkansas Little Rock L 67 - 73 30%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -10 -8 F+ D- C -1 C- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.8 2.5 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 9.2 16.4 14.8 5.8 0.6 0.0 49.1 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 9.4 10.7 5.8 1.6 0.1 31.6 10th
11th 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.2 11th
Total 1.1 5.5 12.9 20.3 22.7 19.3 11.3 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.3% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
9-11 5.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 4.8
8-12 11.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.1
7-13 19.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.3
6-14 22.7% 22.7
5-15 20.3% 20.3
4-16 12.9% 12.9
3-17 5.5% 5.5
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%