IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.4	#93
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.3	#89
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.9	#135

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.5	#62

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	31.9%	34.3%	21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.0	11.8	12.6

.500 or above	92.9%	95.3%	82.8%
.500 or above in Conference	94.0%	95.3%	88.5%
Conference Champion	41.8%	45.0%	28.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.2%	0.6%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
First Round	31.8%	34.2%	21.9%
Second Round	6.4%	7.2%	3.1%
Sweet Sixteen	1.4%	1.7%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 3	8 - 4	9 - 7
Quad 4	13 - 2	22 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	169	California Baptist	W	73-64	81%
Nov 15, 2025	279	Weber St.	W	76-61	91%
Nov 19, 2025	119	@ Utah Valley	L	70-71	50%
Nov 22, 2025	110	Northern Iowa	W	70-65	66%
Nov 25, 2025	138	New Mexico St.	W	69-65	64%
Nov 26, 2025	151	South Dakota St.	W	76-71	67%
Nov 30, 2025	159	@ San Jose St.	W	71-68	59%
Dec 04, 2025	258	UC Riverside	W	78-64	88%
Dec 06, 2025	176	Cal St. Northridge	W	81-71	79%
Dec 19, 2025	112	Belmont	W	78-73	66%
Dec 21, 2025	208	North Dakota St.	W	74-66	76%
Jan 01, 2026	223	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	73-67	69%
Jan 03, 2026	337	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	76-63	86%
Jan 08, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	74-60	88%
Jan 11, 2026	134	@ Hawaii	W	69-68	52%
Jan 17, 2026	252	@ UC Davis	W	72-65	73%
Jan 22, 2026	258	@ UC Riverside	W	75-67	73%
Jan 24, 2026	117	@ UC San Diego	L	68-69	49%
Jan 29, 2026	134	Hawaii	W	72-65	71%
Feb 05, 2026	223	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	76-64	83%
Feb 07, 2026	135	@ UC Santa Barbara	W	70-69	52%
Feb 12, 2026	256	@ Cal Poly	W	84-77	73%
Feb 14, 2026	337	Cal St. Fullerton	W	79-60	94%
Feb 19, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	W	71-63	73%
Feb 21, 2026	117	UC San Diego	W	72-66	68%
Feb 26, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	78-74	62%
Feb 28, 2026	135	UC Santa Barbara	W	73-66	71%
Mar 05, 2026	256	Cal Poly	W	87-74	86%
Mar 07, 2026	252	UC Davis	W	75-62	86%
Projected Record						21 - 8	15 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	1.1	3.6	7.4	10.3	9.9	6.7	2.7		41.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.7	5.0	6.8	5.0	2.2	0.4				21.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.4	1.9	4.4	4.3	2.1	0.4	0.0					13.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.7	3.1	2.7	0.9	0.1	0.0						8.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.3	2.1	1.4	0.4	0.0								5.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.0	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.0									3.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0										2.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0												1.4	8th
9th						0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.8	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.3	10th
11th	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.1	11th

Total	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.6	2.6	3.7	5.2	6.8	9.3	11.4	12.6	12.8	12.5	10.4	6.7	2.7			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	2.7		2.7
19-1	100.0%	6.7		6.5	0.1
18-2	95.7%	9.9		8.9	1.0	0.0
17-3	82.2%	10.3		7.8	2.3	0.1
16-4	57.8%	7.4		4.2	2.7	0.5	0.0
15-5	28.3%	3.6		1.3	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-6	10.0%	1.1		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	41.8%	41.8		31.8	8.3	1.5	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	2.7%		81.4%	75.7%	5.6%	8.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.1	0.0				0.5		23.2%
19-1	6.7%		65.1%	63.7%	1.5%	11.0				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	2.4	1.0	0.1	0.0			2.3		4.0%
18-2	10.4%		55.3%	55.1%	0.2%	11.6										0.0	0.1	2.5	2.6	0.4	0.0			4.6		0.4%
17-3	12.5%		48.7%	48.6%	0.1%	12.0										0.0	0.0	1.4	3.4	1.2	0.1			6.4		0.2%
16-4	12.8%		38.0%	38.0%		12.4												0.4	2.5	1.6	0.4	0.0		8.0
15-5	12.6%		29.4%	29.4%		12.8												0.1	1.4	1.5	0.6	0.1		8.9
14-6	11.4%		22.6%	22.6%		13.2												0.0	0.7	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	8.8
13-7	9.3%		13.8%	13.8%		13.4												0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	8.1
12-8	6.8%		9.2%	9.2%		14.3													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	6.2
11-9	5.2%		5.2%	5.2%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	4.9
10-10	3.7%		4.3%	4.3%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.5
9-11	2.6%		2.4%	2.4%		17.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5
8-12	1.6%		1.3%	1.3%		19.0																0.0	0.0	1.5
7-13	0.9%		0.5%	0.5%		29.6																0.0		0.9
6-14	0.5%																							0.5
5-15	0.3%																							0.3
4-16	0.1%																							0.1
3-17	0.0%																							0.0
2-18	0.0%																							0.0
1-19
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		31.9%	31.6%	0.3%	12.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	1.0	7.6	12.0	6.5	2.5	0.8	0.1	68.1		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	5.6	2.6	1.9	7.1	21.1	19.9	20.5	10.9	5.1	4.5	2.6	3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	48.0%	9.5						0.1	3.7	3.7	11.0	25.9	3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	66.3%	10.0								11.1	0.3	33.2	21.8
Lose Out	0.0%