UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#121
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#158
Pace71.3#135
Improvement+1.3#89

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#282
First Shot-4.7#307
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#140
Layup/Dunks-1.3#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#331
Freethrows+1.5#97
Improvement+0.7#114

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#25
First Shot+7.3#14
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks+2.1#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#91
Freethrows+1.4#94
Improvement+0.6#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 21.9% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 90.6% 95.8% 85.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 96.8% 94.0%
Conference Champion 22.8% 26.2% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.3% 21.9% 16.8%
Second Round2.0% 2.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 127 California Baptist L 61-69 64%     0 - 1 -8.8 -13.6 +4.9
  Sat, Nov 15 215 Weber St. W 79-70 81%     1 - 1 +2.6 -5.5 +7.2
  Wed, Nov 19 82 @Utah Valley L 72-79 25%     1 - 2 +2.8 +5.2 -2.3
  Sat, Nov 22 93 Northern Iowa L 69-70 OT 51%     1 - 3 +1.7 +0.4 +1.3
  Tue, Nov 25 135 New Mexico St. L 45-57 55%     1 - 4 -10.4 -26.6 +16.2
  Wed, Nov 26 164 South Dakota St. W 64-52 62%     2 - 4 +11.7 -12.1 +23.1
  Sun, Nov 30 188 @San Jose St. W 72-63 57%     3 - 4 +10.2 +2.2 +8.5
  Thu, Dec 4 265 UC Riverside W 73-60 86%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +4.3 -3.2 +7.9
  Sat, Dec 6 217 Cal St. Northridge W 85-71 81%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +7.4 +8.4 -0.9
  Fri, Dec 19 87 Belmont L 73-74 49%    
  Sun, Dec 21 148 North Dakota St. W 70-68 58%    
  Thu, Jan 1 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 267 @Cal St. Fullerton W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 276 Long Beach St. W 74-62 87%    
  Sun, Jan 11 110 @Hawaii L 64-68 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 197 @UC Davis W 69-67 58%    
  Thu, Jan 22 265 @UC Riverside W 72-66 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 85 @UC San Diego L 67-74 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 110 Hawaii W 67-65 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-63 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 159 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 252 @Cal Poly W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 14 267 Cal St. Fullerton W 82-70 85%    
  Thu, Feb 19 276 @Long Beach St. W 71-65 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 85 UC San Diego L 70-71 48%    
  Thu, Feb 26 217 @Cal St. Northridge W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 159 UC Santa Barbara W 72-66 69%    
  Thu, Mar 5 252 Cal Poly W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Mar 7 197 UC Davis W 72-64 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 6.0 6.4 4.5 1.9 0.3 22.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.1 8.8 6.2 2.2 0.3 26.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 7.3 7.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 22.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.8 5.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.8 10.8 13.9 14.9 14.9 12.6 8.6 4.7 1.9 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.1
18-2 94.7% 4.5    3.8 0.7 0.0
17-3 74.1% 6.4    4.4 1.9 0.1
16-4 47.1% 6.0    2.9 2.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 19.4% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 5.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 14.3 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 48.9% 48.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.9% 47.7% 47.7% 11.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0
18-2 4.7% 39.4% 39.4% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.9
17-3 8.6% 36.4% 36.4% 12.6 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.5
16-4 12.6% 31.8% 31.8% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 8.6
15-5 14.9% 24.7% 24.7% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 11.2
14-6 14.9% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.5
13-7 13.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.8 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 12.2
12-8 10.8% 8.1% 8.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.9
11-9 7.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.5
10-10 4.8% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
9-11 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.9 8.0 4.4 1.3 0.1 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.7 14.3 14.3 7.1 17.9 46.4