UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.0 #118
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #123
Pace 71.1 #119
Improvement +2.1 #93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #261 D+ C+ C C D+
Defense #41 B+ B- C B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.05 #305 -0.1 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #44 0.74 #189 +2.8 #57
Three Pointers 29% #360 0.99 #224 -6.5 #346
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #296 -3.8 #297
Freethrows 0.32 #143 68% #313 0.22 #196
Second Chance 30.6% #179 1.11 #70 0.34 #112
Turnovers 17.5% #219
Total Offense -3.3 #261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 0.87 #2 +5.7 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.71 #107 -0.3 #212
Three Pointers 39% #252 1.02 #197 +1.1 #132
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #27 +6.4 #26
Freethrows 0.26 #44 71% #122 0.18 #42
Second Chance 32.4% #261 0.83 #9 0.27 #73
Turnovers 17.2% #168
Total Defense +6.3 #41

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #283 -0.6% #114
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #285 -11.8% #20
Possession Length 17.0 #139 17.1 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #163 0.17 #173
Improvement +2.6 #59 -0.5 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 27.7% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 57.6% 59.4% 32.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.1% 27.7% 19.8%
Second Round2.0% 2.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 38 - 69 - 10
Quad 412 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 133 California Baptist L 61 - 69 66% -3  0 - 1 -9 -12 F+ D- B- +3 B- C+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 229 Weber St. W 79 - 70 83% +8  1 - 1 +2 -7 D D C +8 A+ B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 102 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 32% -6  1 - 2 +1 +4 F+ B A -3 C C F
 Sat, Nov 22 110 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 59% -3  1 - 3 -0 -0 D A A -0 B+ A- F+
 Tue, Nov 25 167 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 64% -5  1 - 4 -13 -29 F F F +17 A+ D A+
 Wed, Nov 26 177 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 66% +7  2 - 4 +11 -14 F+ F F +24 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 30 241 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 67% +5  3 - 4 +7 +0 D- C B- +8 A- A+ D
 Thu, Dec 4 291 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 89% +11  4 - 4 1 - 0 +3 -3 C- D+ C +5 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 187 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 77% -0  5 - 4 2 - 0 +9 +10 C- A+ C+ -1 B A F
 Fri, Dec 19 74 Belmont L 58 - 84 43% -8  5 - 5 -21 -14 F F A+ -7 D C+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 140 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 57% +3  6 - 5 +2 +6 C+ B B+ -3 C F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 307 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 86% +16  7 - 5 +10 +16 B- A+ B -5 D+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 82% +6  8 - 5 3 - 0 -3 +6 B- B+ D- -8 C D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 223 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 63% +9  9 - 5 4 - 0 +22 +15 A A+ D+ +7 A+ C- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 255 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 85% +7  10 - 5 5 - 0 +2 -4 F+ F+ A +6 C+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 101 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 32% -2  10 - 6 5 - 1 +7 -1 D- A- F +8 B A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 189 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 58% -2  10 - 7 5 - 2 -2 +1 C- C D+ -3 A+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 22 291 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 76% +10  11 - 7 6 - 2 +10 +5 C- B F +4 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 138 @UC San Diego W 61 - 59 45% +1  12 - 7 7 - 2 +6 -9 D- D- B +15 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 101 Hawaii W 87 - 76 OT 55% +2  13 - 7 8 - 2 +13 +3 B- B- D +8 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 64 93%
 Sat, Feb 7 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 71 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 264 @Cal Poly W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 223 Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 255 @Long Beach St. W 73 - 68 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 138 UC San Diego W 71 - 66 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 187 @Cal St. Northridge W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 130 UC Santa Barbara W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 264 Cal Poly W 85 - 73 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 189 UC Davis W 76 - 68 78%
Totals 20 - 10 15 - 5 +3 -3 D+ C+ C +6 B+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.8 14.6 20.3 14.1 4.4 57.6 1st
2nd 0.3 3.7 10.8 10.6 2.9 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 4.9 3.4 0.6 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 9.2 17.9 25.8 23.2 14.1 4.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.4    4.4
17-3 100.0% 14.1    12.3 1.8
16-4 87.5% 20.3    13.2 6.9 0.2
15-5 56.6% 14.6    5.9 7.5 1.2
14-6 21.0% 3.8    0.7 1.7 1.2 0.1
13-7 4.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 57.6% 57.6 36.5 18.0 2.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.4% 42.7% 42.7% 12.1 0.2 1.3 0.4 2.5
17-3 14.1% 36.4% 36.4% 12.7 0.0 2.1 2.6 0.4 9.0
16-4 23.2% 32.8% 32.8% 13.0 1.4 4.9 1.3 0.1 15.6
15-5 25.8% 27.3% 27.3% 13.3 0.7 4.1 2.2 0.1 18.8
14-6 17.9% 21.2% 21.2% 13.5 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.2 14.1
13-7 9.2% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 8.0
12-8 4.0% 8.5% 8.5% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.7
11-9 1.1% 6.4% 6.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 13.1 72.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.1 10.8 67.2 22.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%