UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#84
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#44
Pace71.1#138
Improvement+0.7#128

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#86
First Shot+5.8#42
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#315
Layup/Dunks+6.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#50
Freethrows-2.1#300
Improvement-0.4#215

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#85
First Shot+4.6#49
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#303
Layups/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#265
Freethrows+3.3#28
Improvement+1.1#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.8% 43.6% 35.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.5% 99.1%
Conference Champion 58.3% 59.1% 49.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round42.7% 43.5% 34.9%
Second Round8.4% 8.7% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.8% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 311 - 212 - 5
Quad 414 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 279 Houston Christian W 78-60 92%     1 - 0 +8.7 -1.1 +9.9
  Wed, Nov 12 181 @Fresno St. W 78-73 69%     2 - 0 +6.5 +5.3 +1.1
  Sat, Nov 15 167 Idaho W 75-67 83%     3 - 0 +4.3 -2.1 +6.3
  Mon, Nov 24 148 Temple W 91-76 71%     4 - 0 +15.9 +16.9 -0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 107 Bradley W 87-77 61%     5 - 0 +13.9 +17.0 -3.1
  Wed, Nov 26 140 Towson W 87-73 70%     6 - 0 +15.3 +22.9 -6.3
  Tue, Dec 2 99 @Nevada L 70-76 45%     6 - 1 +2.0 +6.5 -5.0
  Sat, Dec 6 278 @Long Beach St. W 80-74 82%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +2.7 +6.6 -3.6
  Sat, Dec 13 199 Tulane W 93-67 80%     8 - 1 +23.6 +7.4 +13.5
  Tue, Dec 16 145 @Loyola Marymount W 67-57 60%     9 - 1 +14.0 -0.9 +14.7
  Fri, Dec 19 242 San Diego W 86-72 91%    
  Thu, Jan 1 252 @Cal Poly W 88-79 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 110 Hawaii W 75-69 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 267 Cal St. Fullerton W 90-75 92%    
  Sat, Jan 10 262 @UC Riverside W 79-70 80%    
  Thu, Jan 15 218 Cal St. Northridge W 87-74 89%    
  Sat, Jan 17 314 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-70 88%    
  Thu, Jan 22 198 @UC Davis W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Jan 24 120 UC Irvine W 74-67 73%    
  Thu, Jan 29 159 UC Santa Barbara W 80-70 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 218 @Cal St. Northridge W 84-77 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 278 Long Beach St. W 83-67 93%    
  Sun, Feb 8 110 @Hawaii W 73-72 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 198 UC Davis W 80-68 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 262 UC Riverside W 82-67 91%    
  Sat, Feb 21 120 @UC Irvine W 71-70 52%    
  Thu, Feb 26 314 Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-67 95%    
  Sat, Feb 28 252 Cal Poly W 91-76 91%    
  Thu, Mar 5 267 @Cal St. Fullerton W 87-78 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 159 @UC Santa Barbara W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.6 10.6 15.6 14.5 9.0 2.9 58.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.8 7.7 6.7 2.7 0.4 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.1 10.1 14.3 17.6 18.3 14.8 9.0 2.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
19-1 100.0% 9.0    8.9 0.1
18-2 97.5% 14.5    13.3 1.2 0.0
17-3 85.3% 15.6    12.0 3.5 0.1
16-4 59.9% 10.6    6.4 3.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 32.0% 4.6    1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1
14-6 10.6% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.3% 58.3 45.5 11.0 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.9% 73.1% 69.3% 3.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.8 12.3%
19-1 9.0% 61.7% 60.9% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4 1.9 0.1 3.5 2.2%
18-2 14.8% 55.4% 55.3% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 5.0 0.5 6.6 0.4%
17-3 18.3% 50.0% 49.9% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 1.4 6.5 1.2 0.0 9.1 0.0%
16-4 17.6% 44.0% 44.0% 12.2 0.5 5.3 1.9 0.1 9.9
15-5 14.3% 36.7% 36.7% 12.4 0.1 2.9 2.1 0.2 9.1
14-6 10.1% 27.5% 27.5% 12.7 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.3
13-7 6.1% 20.3% 20.3% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.9
12-8 3.6% 12.9% 12.9% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2
11-9 1.9% 11.6% 11.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
10-10 0.8% 6.9% 6.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 42.8% 42.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 8.8 23.2 8.3 0.9 0.0 57.2 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 9.1 1.9 3.2 9.5 8.4 9.1 15.8 17.2 31.5 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 14.3% 10.8 0.6 1.3 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 9.5% 11.0 1.0 7.6 1.0