UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #209
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #257
Pace 65.2 #271
Improvement +1.2 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 C C- C- C+ F
Defense #218 C- C+ C C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #359 1.14 #188 -5.9 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #2 0.82 #89 +7.8 #1
Three Pointers 33% #326 1.07 #92 -2.9 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #202 -1.0 #202
Freethrows 0.34 #69 69% #272 0.24 #114
Second Chance 29.1% #230 1.00 #212 0.29 #230
Turnovers 18.0% #263
Total Offense -1.8 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.16 #178 -3.2 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #252 0.90 #352 -0.4 #220
Three Pointers 38% #266 1.00 #152 +1.9 #114
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #235 -1.7 #234
Freethrows 0.32 #237 69% #29 0.22 #194
Second Chance 31.5% #223 0.95 #77 0.30 #141
Turnovers 16.4% #197
Total Defense -1.2 #218

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.8% #364 1.4% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #106 2.0% #220
Possession Length 18.8 #324 17.1 #163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #276 0.19 #255
Improvement +1.0 #128 +0.3 #175

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 6.5% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 7.7% 9.4% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 83.1% 48.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 2.9% 4.0%
First Round5.1% 5.4% 4.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 99 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 15% -4  0 - 1 -9 -9 F+ A+ F -1 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 260 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 49% +1  0 - 2 -6 +3 C+ B F+ -8 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 176 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 55% +4  1 - 2 +1 -0 B B- F +2 A C- C
 Wed, Nov 19 262 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 49% -1  1 - 3 -10 +3 B+ F D -13 C D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 230 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 65% +3  1 - 4 -9 -7 A+ D- F -2 C D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 172 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 54% +8  2 - 4 +8 +0 D+ A+ F +9 B+ B C
 Tue, Dec 2 313 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 72% +0  3 - 4 -4 +9 C+ B C -12 F C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 21 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  3 - 5 +7 +1 D C C+ +6 A D- A
 Wed, Dec 10 92 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 28% -6  3 - 6 +0 +4 B C- B- -4 C A F
 Sat, Dec 13 137 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 45% -13  3 - 7 -23 -13 F+ C- F -11 D C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 119 @UAB L 47 - 72 20% -13  3 - 8 -19 -19 F F F+ -2 C- A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 98 High Point L 69 - 87 31% -11  3 - 9 0 - 1 -16 -3 F+ C A+ -14 F D B+
 Sat, Jan 3 245 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 45% -6  3 - 10 0 - 2 -5 +8 F A+ C+ -13 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 266 Longwood W 72 - 61 72% +6  4 - 10 1 - 2 +2 +3 C D+ B +0 C+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 234 @Radford W 91 - 72 43% +9  5 - 10 2 - 2 +18 +12 A+ F C +5 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 263 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 49% -6  5 - 11 2 - 3 -4 +1 F C C -5 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 123 Winthrop L 67 - 69 41% -6  5 - 12 2 - 4 -3 -8 F D- B+ +5 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 301 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 58% +6  6 - 12 3 - 4 +9 +14 A- D+ B- -5 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 95% +12  7 - 12 4 - 4 -2 -2 C F+ C- +3 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 31 123 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 21% -7  7 - 13 4 - 5 -8 +5 C- F A -14 F D B+
 Wed, Feb 4 301 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 66 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 266 @Longwood L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 263 Presbyterian W 71 - 65 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 98 @High Point L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 234 Radford W 79 - 75 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 80 - 68 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 Charleston Southern W 77 - 72 67%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 8 -3 -2 C C- C- -1 C- C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 13.6 12.7 1.8 30.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 18.0 15.3 2.2 0.0 38.1 4th
5th 0.6 9.2 8.1 0.5 18.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 4.9 0.4 8.8 6th
7th 0.7 2.0 0.4 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 1.2 6.0 17.0 29.0 29.4 15.1 2.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 2.2% 12.3% 12.3% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9
10-6 15.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 13.6
9-7 29.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.2 1.7 27.4
8-8 29.0% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6 27.4
7-9 17.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.8 16.3
6-10 6.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-11 1.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 15.7 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.1 7.5 79.2 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%