UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #298
Pace 68.4 #196
Improvement -2.7 #298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #204 D+ C- B- B- D+
Defense #353 D- C- D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #266 1.14 #194 -2.1 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.68 #297 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 39% #215 0.96 #249 -1.9 #251
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #276 -3.2 #274
Freethrows 0.36 #30 69% #281 0.25 #77
Second Chance 27.0% #277 1.05 #167 0.28 #253
Turnovers 15.0% #96
Total Offense -1.4 #204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.28 #319 +0.1 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #200 0.76 #170 +0.3 #165
Three Pointers 46% #57 1.17 #349 -6.0 #355
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #333 -5.5 #333
Freethrows 0.26 #51 70% #75 0.18 #42
Second Chance 29.7% #141 1.18 #331 0.35 #262
Turnovers 12.7% #348
Total Defense -7.3 #353

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #291 -0.3% #136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #255 11.1% #347
Possession Length 17.5 #182 16.7 #74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #298 0.16 #147
Improvement +1.3 #118 -4.0 #351

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 34.7% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.1% 1.9%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 49 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 87 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 5% -7  0 - 1 -19 -12 D F F -3 D D A-
 Sat, Nov 8 183 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 35% -1  0 - 2 -7 +6 A- F C+ -12 C- B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 24 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 1% -15  0 - 3 -27 -4 F D+ C -20 D+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 171 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 32% -3  0 - 4 -10 -12 D- F B+ +3 B- C+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 203 @Queens L 94 - 101 20% -8  0 - 5 -7 +20 B- B+ A+ -27 F D F
 Sun, Nov 23 224 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 31% -9  1 - 5 +2 -8 D+ F+ F +11 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 278 Delaware L 60 - 73 42% -1  1 - 6 -20 -10 F F C -11 F A- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 93 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  1 - 7 -5 -4 D- A- F -1 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 205 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 28% -0  1 - 8 -8 +9 A+ C D+ -18 F F+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 257 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 28% +2  2 - 8 +2 +11 D A+ B- -10 D+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 16 288 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 56% -6  2 - 9 -16 -9 F C B -8 C B- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 276 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 53% +1  3 - 9 1 - 0 -5 +3 C C F+ -7 F A D+
 Sat, Jan 3 239 Samford W 89 - 82 45% +8  4 - 9 2 - 0 -0 +16 C+ B A+ -16 F+ F D-
 Wed, Jan 7 184 @Wofford L 85 - 97 18% -11  4 - 10 2 - 1 -11 +12 B- B B+ -23 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 140 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 12% -10  4 - 11 2 - 2 -22 -13 F B- F -8 F B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 347 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 73% -4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -12 -11 F F+ C+ -1 D+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 145 Mercer L 92 - 102 27% -12  5 - 12 3 - 3 -12 +11 B+ F+ A+ -23 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 21 357 @VMI W 85 - 78 60% +6  6 - 12 4 - 3 -4 +11 D+ D+ A+ -14 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 160 Furman L 66 - 89 29% -5  6 - 13 4 - 4 -26 -2 C D- C+ -27 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 145 @Mercer L 77 - 95 12% -14  6 - 14 4 - 5 -14 +1 F C+ A -15 D+ F D
 Sat, Jan 31 347 @The Citadel W 75 - 74 50%
 Wed, Feb 4 262 Western Carolina L 81 - 82 51%
 Sun, Feb 8 160 @Furman L 69 - 81 14%
 Wed, Feb 11 357 VMI W 81 - 72 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 184 Wofford L 76 - 80 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 262 @Western Carolina L 78 - 84 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 140 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 79 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 276 @Chattanooga L 73 - 78 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 239 @Samford L 75 - 82 26%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -9 -1 D+ C- B- -7 D- C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.2 5.0 8.6 3.8 0.3 17.9 5th
6th 0.2 4.7 12.2 4.1 0.2 21.4 6th
7th 0.0 3.5 12.5 5.7 0.3 22.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 11.9 7.1 0.8 22.2 8th
9th 1.2 5.3 3.7 0.2 10.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 1.3 7.8 19.3 24.8 23.7 13.8 6.6 2.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 46.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 2.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.1
10-8 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.5
9-9 13.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 13.6
8-10 23.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 23.6
7-11 24.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 24.6
6-12 19.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.3
5-13 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%