Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #236
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #248
Pace 72.0 #90
Improvement -4.6 #342

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #163 C C C C+ B
Defense #305 D+ D+ C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.11 #249 +3.5 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #300 0.60 #353 -3.4 #336
Three Pointers 38% #234 1.07 #98 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 -0.1 #182
Freethrows 0.34 #81 70% #252 0.24 #118
Second Chance 31.6% #150 0.98 #240 0.31 #176
Turnovers 16.6% #160
Total Offense +0.0 #163

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.29 #332 -5.2 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #278 0.78 #219 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 40% #215 0.99 #128 +1.1 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.0 #279
Freethrows 0.33 #268 73% #228 0.24 #267
Second Chance 30.0% #151 1.17 #342 0.35 #283
Turnovers 16.6% #200
Total Defense -4.4 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #30 1.4% #295
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.7% #219 4.6% #267
Possession Length 17.0 #139 16.9 #126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #91 0.19 #234
Improvement -0.6 #219 -4.0 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.8% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 6.2% 7.8% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 40.7% 11.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 1.3% 17.0%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.7%
First Round3.4% 3.7% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 410 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 109 @Utah L 89 - 92 OT 15% +3  0 - 1 +4 +2 D A- D+ +3 A+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 12 32 @Utah St. L 73 - 83 3% -4  0 - 2 +8 +7 F+ A+ A- +0 A+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 115 @UC Irvine L 70 - 79 16% -8  0 - 3 -3 -2 D- C- C+ -0 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 198 Campbell W 91 - 85 54% +5  1 - 3 +1 +9 B+ C B- -8 B+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 164 Texas Arlington L 73 - 74 46% -0  1 - 4 -4 +6 C+ A- C+ -10 F+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 360 UMKC W 82 - 61 89% +10  2 - 4 +3 +5 A+ F+ F -1 D A- C-
 Wed, Dec 3 336 Oral Roberts W 92 - 66 82% +17  3 - 4 +12 +8 A D B+ +2 C- A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 122 @St. Thomas L 65 - 88 18% -18  3 - 5 -18 -6 D- C- F -11 D F C-
 Wed, Dec 10 360 @UMKC W 64 - 60 76% +3  4 - 5 -8 -15 F C- F +7 A D+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 100 @Utah Valley L 74 - 90 13% -9  4 - 6 -8 +12 C- A- A+ -21 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 209 Utah Tech L 80 - 82 55% -1  4 - 7 -8 +8 A+ F C -16 F A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 140 Portland St. L 90 - 95 OT 39% -0  4 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +5 C C- A+ -11 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 258 Sacramento St. W 95 - 82 66% +10  5 - 8 1 - 1 +4 +8 B- C+ C+ -5 F+ B+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 306 @Northern Arizona W 78 - 65 54% +5  6 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +9 C- B- A+ +0 B+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 180 @Northern Colorado W 76 - 71 28% +1  7 - 8 3 - 1 +7 +6 C+ D+ C- +1 A D- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 232 Eastern Washington W 91 - 80 60% +1  8 - 8 4 - 1 +4 +7 C B- C -3 B- F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 187 Idaho L 67 - 75 51% -9  8 - 9 4 - 2 -13 -14 F B+ F +2 B F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 22 171 @Montana L 65 - 81 26% -2  8 - 10 4 - 3 -14 -0 A- F D+ -15 F F B
 Sat, Jan 24 156 @Montana St. L 88 - 91 24% -2  8 - 11 4 - 4 -0 +17 A+ D+ A -17 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 31 243 Idaho St. W 81 - 79 63% -4  9 - 11 5 - 4 -6 +5 C B D+ -10 F A+ C-
 Mon, Feb 2 258 @Sacramento St. L 90 - 104 43% -12  9 - 12 5 - 5 -17 +5 C- B- B -21 F A B-
 Thu, Feb 5 180 Northern Colorado L 74 - 88 50% -10  9 - 13 5 - 6 -18 -0 D+ F A- -19 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 306 Northern Arizona W 81 - 74 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 187 @Idaho L 75 - 81 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 232 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 82 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 156 Montana St. L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 171 Montana L 78 - 79 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 @Idaho St. L 76 - 79 40%
 Mon, Mar 2 140 @Portland St. L 70 - 79 21%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4 +0 C C C -4 D+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.8 3.5 1.5 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.8 7.0 5.2 0.3 13.3 4th
5th 0.4 7.6 10.1 1.1 19.2 5th
6th 0.0 4.7 13.6 2.4 0.0 20.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 11.9 5.5 0.2 19.0 7th
8th 0.2 5.8 7.1 0.6 13.7 8th
9th 1.1 4.3 0.7 6.1 9th
10th 0.8 0.3 1.1 10th
Total 2.1 11.8 24.8 28.1 20.5 9.9 2.5 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 17.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.5% 12.2% 12.2% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.2
10-8 9.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 9.1
9-9 20.5% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.2 1.2 19.1
8-10 28.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 26.9
7-11 24.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 24.4
6-12 11.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.7
5-13 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.7 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%