Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#101
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#87
Pace72.3#106
Improvement-1.2#268

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#118
First Shot+2.7#100
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#226
Layup/Dunks-3.1#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#21
Freethrows-2.1#299
Improvement+0.7#115

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#85
First Shot-1.3#223
After Offensive Rebounds+4.2#4
Layups/Dunks-4.0#316
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#56
Freethrows+2.2#60
Improvement-1.9#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 4.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 4.5% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.5
.500 or above 30.9% 46.3% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 18.3% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.8% 15.7% 35.8%
First Four1.3% 2.2% 0.7%
First Round2.0% 3.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 24 - 65 - 16
Quad 34 - 29 - 18
Quad 46 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 163 Marist W 66-62 78%     1 - 0 +0.7 -2.0 +2.8
  Thu, Nov 6 315 Le Moyne W 74-69 93%     2 - 0 -7.0 -6.4 -0.5
  Mon, Nov 10 77 Santa Clara L 68-87 52%     2 - 1 -14.6 -4.8 -9.3
  Fri, Nov 14 22 @Iowa L 62-81 11%     2 - 2 -0.5 -2.3 +1.9
  Tue, Nov 18 205 Old Dominion W 99-69 84%     3 - 2 +24.0 +17.0 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 21 19 Georgia L 77-78 15%     3 - 3 +14.8 +8.1 +6.7
  Sun, Nov 23 68 West Virginia W 78-68 37%     4 - 3 +18.3 +12.8 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 86%     5 - 3 +14.4 +9.1 +3.9
  Mon, Dec 1 363 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     6 - 3 +3.3 +6.5 -5.4
  Fri, Dec 5 69 Cincinnati W 79-74 49%     7 - 3 +10.0 +10.2 -0.4
  Fri, Dec 12 263 Missouri St. W 75-57 89%     8 - 3 +9.4 +6.8 +4.5
  Wed, Dec 17 38 Creighton L 57-98 33%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -31.6 -15.0 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 20 89 @Georgetown L 74-78 35%    
  Wed, Dec 31 6 Connecticut L 65-78 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 109 @DePaul L 71-73 44%    
  Wed, Jan 7 99 @Marquette L 74-77 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 73 Providence W 83-82 50%    
  Wed, Jan 14 57 Butler L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 38 @Creighton L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Jan 24 18 St. John's L 74-83 20%    
  Wed, Jan 28 58 @Seton Hall L 66-74 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 109 DePaul W 74-70 65%    
  Tue, Feb 3 6 @Connecticut L 62-81 4%    
  Mon, Feb 9 18 @St. John's L 71-86 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 99 Marquette W 77-74 60%    
  Tue, Feb 17 39 Villanova L 69-74 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 57 @Butler L 75-83 24%    
  Tue, Feb 24 73 @Providence L 79-85 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 89 Georgetown W 77-75 57%    
  Tue, Mar 3 58 Seton Hall L 69-71 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 39 @Villanova L 66-77 17%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.8 7.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.5 7.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 3.7 5.7 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 18.7 11th
Total 0.3 1.3 4.0 7.9 12.0 14.6 15.5 14.3 11.8 8.3 5.0 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4
15-5 12.5% 0.0    0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 71.7% 1.7% 70.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.2%
13-7 0.6% 74.0% 4.2% 69.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 72.8%
12-8 1.5% 43.0% 1.8% 41.1% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 41.9%
11-9 2.8% 21.3% 1.1% 20.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 2.2 20.5%
10-10 5.0% 10.4% 1.0% 9.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 4.5 9.5%
9-11 8.3% 1.8% 0.6% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 1.2%
8-12 11.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.1%
7-13 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 14.3
6-14 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 15.5
5-15 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 14.6
4-16 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-17 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.9
2-18 4.0% 4.0
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.7% 0.3% 2.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%