IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+10.9	#50
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.2	#92
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.9	#46

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.0	#52

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.5%	1.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	5.6%	5.8%	0.7%
Top 6 Seed	12.9%	13.3%	2.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	41.0%	42.0%	16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	38.7%	39.8%	15.2%
Average Seed	7.5	7.5	8.5

.500 or above	71.2%	72.6%	39.6%
.500 or above in Conference	49.6%	50.6%	25.9%
Conference Champion	3.1%	3.2%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	7.6%	7.2%	15.5%

First Four	5.8%	5.9%	3.8%
First Round	38.1%	39.1%	13.9%
Second Round	22.3%	22.9%	6.2%
Sweet Sixteen	7.8%	8.1%	1.5%
Elite Eight	3.1%	3.2%	0.7%
Final Four	1.1%	1.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 6	1 - 6
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 9
Quad 2	5 - 3	9 - 12
Quad 3	4 - 1	13 - 13
Quad 4	5 - 0	18 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	237	Marist	W	74-56	96%
Nov 06, 2025	347	Le Moyne	W	89-63	99%
Nov 10, 2025	105	Santa Clara	W	80-71	81%
Nov 14, 2025	32	@ Iowa	L	75-81	30%
Nov 18, 2025	200	Old Dominion	W	80-64	92%
Nov 21, 2025	51	Georgia	W	73-72	51%
Nov 28, 2025	221	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	80-63	94%
Dec 01, 2025	344	St. Francis (PA)	W	85-59	99%
Dec 05, 2025	45	Cincinnati	W	70-68	57%
Dec 12, 2025	162	Missouri St.	W	75-61	90%
Dec 17, 2025	24	Creighton	L	74-75	46%
Dec 20, 2025	69	@ Georgetown	L	73-74	49%
Dec 31, 2025	4	Connecticut	L	66-74	25%
Jan 03, 2026	84	@ DePaul	W	74-73	54%
Jan 07, 2026	43	@ Marquette	L	71-75	37%
Jan 10, 2026	59	Providence	W	75-71	64%
Jan 14, 2026	66	Butler	W	77-72	67%
Jan 21, 2026	24	@ Creighton	L	71-78	28%
Jan 24, 2026	8	St. John's	L	73-78	35%
Jan 28, 2026	101	@ Seton Hall	W	69-66	60%
Jan 31, 2026	84	DePaul	W	77-70	73%
Feb 03, 2026	4	@ Connecticut	L	63-77	12%
Feb 09, 2026	8	@ St. John's	L	70-81	19%
Feb 14, 2026	43	Marquette	W	74-72	56%
Feb 17, 2026	39	Villanova	W	69-68	54%
Feb 21, 2026	66	@ Butler	L	74-75	48%
Feb 24, 2026	59	@ Providence	L	72-74	45%
Feb 28, 2026	69	Georgetown	W	77-71	68%
Mar 03, 2026	101	Seton Hall	W	72-63	77%
Mar 07, 2026	39	@ Villanova	L	66-71	34%
Projected Record						17 - 13	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big East Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0		3.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.1	1.9	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.0				6.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.5	2.1	3.4	2.7	1.0	0.2	0.0					10.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.2	3.4	4.3	2.4	0.6	0.1							12.2	4th
5th									0.2	1.6	4.3	4.6	1.9	0.3									12.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.9	4.6	4.2	1.4	0.2										12.5	6th
7th							0.3	2.1	4.6	3.8	0.9	0.1											11.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.1	4.0	3.0	0.7	0.1												10.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.6	2.2	3.5	2.3	0.6	0.1													9.3	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	2.4	1.4	0.3	0.0														7.0	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0															4.5	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.2	3.9	5.4	7.4	8.9	10.2	10.9	10.7	10.0	8.7	7.2	5.4	3.5	2.2	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Big East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	91.4%	0.5		0.4	0.1
17-3	69.0%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
16-4	38.7%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
15-5	15.4%	0.5		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	3.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.1%	3.1		1.8	1.0	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		100.0%	56.7%	43.3%	1.3		0.0	0.0																	100.0%
19-1	0.2%		100.0%	40.8%	59.2%	1.8		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															100.0%
18-2	0.5%		100.0%	28.9%	71.1%	2.2		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0														100.0%
17-3	1.1%		100.0%	26.2%	73.8%	3.1		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
16-4	2.2%		99.6%	18.4%	81.3%	4.0		0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0								0.0		99.6%
15-5	3.5%		99.3%	14.6%	84.7%	5.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0							0.0		99.2%
14-6	5.4%		98.0%	9.3%	88.7%	6.4			0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.2	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0						0.1		97.8%
13-7	7.2%		92.8%	7.4%	85.4%	7.4				0.0	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.4	1.5	1.2	0.6	0.1						0.5		92.2%
12-8	8.7%		84.5%	4.8%	79.7%	8.3				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.8	1.7	1.4	0.4	0.0					1.3		83.8%
11-9	10.0%		66.5%	3.1%	63.3%	9.0					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.7	2.1	0.7	0.0					3.4		65.4%
10-10	10.7%		45.4%	2.0%	43.4%	9.6						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.1	1.9	1.1	0.0					5.8		44.3%
9-11	10.9%		18.2%	1.1%	17.1%	10.2							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.0					8.9		17.3%
8-12	10.2%		4.6%	0.5%	4.1%	10.6										0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0					9.7		4.1%
7-13	8.9%		0.9%	0.5%	0.4%	10.9										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				8.8		0.4%
6-14	7.4%		0.1%	0.1%		11.0												0.0		0.0				7.4
5-15	5.4%		0.2%	0.2%		13.7													0.0		0.0	0.0		5.4
4-16	3.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	0.0	3.9
3-17	2.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		41.0%	3.7%	37.3%	7.5		0.5	0.9	1.7	2.4	3.2	4.1	4.9	6.2	6.5	7.1	3.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	59.0		38.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	50.0	50.0