Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#242
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#202
Pace70.3#167
Improvement-0.1#194

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#212
First Shot+1.2#142
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#335
Layup/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#235
Freethrows-1.6#278
Improvement+1.9#52

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#276
First Shot+0.7#140
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#353
Layups/Dunks+3.3#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#342
Freethrows+0.9#130
Improvement-2.0#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 19.2% 49.0% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.0% 42.9% 26.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 5.4% 10.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 49 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 243 Coastal Carolina W 76-71 62%     1 - 0 -2.7 -4.3 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 9 226 @Campbell L 82-91 35%     1 - 1 -9.7 -1.7 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 12 220 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-71 57%     2 - 1 +5.6 -1.0 +5.6
  Sun, Nov 16 278 @South Dakota L 78-83 44%     2 - 2 -8.2 +2.7 -11.0
  Thu, Nov 20 31 @Ohio St. L 58-91 3%     2 - 3 -16.4 -10.0 -5.2
  Sun, Nov 23 296 Mount St. Mary's W 83-60 71%     3 - 3 +12.6 +8.2 +5.1
  Sat, Nov 29 212 @Valparaiso L 55-84 33%     3 - 4 -29.2 -11.8 -19.6
  Wed, Dec 3 317 Southern Indiana W 88-74 77%     4 - 4 +1.8 +8.2 -6.9
  Sat, Dec 6 233 @SIU Edwardsville W 83-73 36%     5 - 4 +9.0 +14.3 -5.1
  Sun, Dec 14 23 @Iowa L 60-83 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 209 Buffalo W 77-76 55%    
  Tue, Dec 30 167 @Toledo L 75-82 26%    
  Tue, Jan 6 106 @Miami (OH) L 72-84 14%    
  Sat, Jan 10 228 Eastern Michigan W 73-71 58%    
  Tue, Jan 13 152 Massachusetts L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 65 @Akron L 76-92 7%    
  Tue, Jan 20 125 Bowling Green L 72-76 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 322 Central Michigan W 78-70 77%    
  Tue, Jan 27 326 @Northern Illinois W 78-76 57%    
  Tue, Feb 3 175 @Ohio L 75-82 27%    
  Wed, Feb 11 167 Toledo L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 228 @Eastern Michigan L 70-74 36%    
  Tue, Feb 17 65 Akron L 79-89 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 322 @Central Michigan W 75-73 56%    
  Tue, Feb 24 125 @Bowling Green L 69-79 18%    
  Sat, Feb 28 106 Miami (OH) L 75-81 31%    
  Tue, Mar 3 308 Ball St. W 74-67 72%    
  Fri, Mar 6 124 @Kent St. L 77-88 18%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.3 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.2 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.2 1.1 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.5 6.5 1.9 0.1 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.5 2.3 0.2 13.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.1 5.3 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.1 8.5 12.5 14.8 15.3 13.8 10.9 7.6 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 90.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 72.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 32.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 16.3% 16.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 9.3% 9.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-6 2.3% 5.4% 5.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-7 4.5% 3.3% 3.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
10-8 7.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
9-9 10.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.7
8-10 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 13.8
7-11 15.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 15.3
6-12 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-13 12.5% 12.5
4-14 8.5% 8.5
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%