St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #204
Pace 64.5 #296
Improvement +5.3 #14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #292 D- C+ C- C+ C
Defense #148 C+ D B F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 0.98 #347 -5.0 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.75 #186 -0.1 #176
Three Pointers 44% #124 0.86 #342 -1.9 #249
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #349 -7.0 #349
Freethrows 0.32 #141 75% #82 0.24 #120
Second Chance 34.5% #73 0.99 #251 0.34 #126
Turnovers 17.6% #256
Total Offense -4.4 #292

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #40 1.11 #121 -2.4 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #253 0.69 #78 +1.5 #82
Three Pointers 38% #269 0.99 #139 +2.2 #109
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #136 +1.3 #138
Freethrows 0.40 #361 73% #238 0.29 #360
Second Chance 35.8% #340 1.06 #204 0.38 #312
Turnovers 19.1% #49
Total Defense +0.6 #148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #220 1.5% #307
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.2% #352 -4.0% #102
Possession Length 19.0 #328 16.6 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #75 0.20 #285
Improvement +0.7 #142 +4.6 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 10.9% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 90.3% 94.7% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 97.6%
Conference Champion 24.0% 28.9% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round9.6% 10.6% 7.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 414 - 616 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 57 @Seton Hall L 50 - 77 7% -16  0 - 1 -14 -4 F C D -15 C F D
 Sat, Nov 8 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 83 85% +7  1 - 1 -5 +7 C+ C+ C -13 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 61 - 78 6% -10  1 - 2 -4 -6 F B- D +2 D A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 297 @Delaware L 70 - 81 53% -14  1 - 3 -16 -1 C D+ B -15 F B- B
 Sat, Nov 22 317 Umass Lowell W 68 - 66 79% +2  2 - 3 -10 -12 F B F+ +1 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 235 Dartmouth L 61 - 87 63% -7  2 - 4 -33 -11 F B+ F+ -23 F+ F D-
 Fri, Dec 5 341 Canisius W 69 - 57 84% +6  3 - 4 1 - 0 -3 -2 F A- D+ +1 A+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 7 349 Niagara W 71 - 43 86% +13  4 - 4 2 - 0 +13 +2 D- A- C+ +15 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 90 @Georgetown L 68 - 76 OT 12% -7  4 - 5 +1 -2 D- F+ C +3 C D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 271 @Fairfield W 70 - 66 48% -1  5 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -3 F D C +4 B+ D- B
 Fri, Jan 2 160 Marist W 69 - 59 47% +3  6 - 5 4 - 0 +7 +1 F A B- +6 A+ A- B-
 Fri, Jan 9 286 @Mount St. Mary's L 65 - 70 52% +7  6 - 6 4 - 1 -9 -6 F D F -3 A+ F C
 Sun, Jan 11 205 Merrimack W 76 - 63 58% +9  7 - 6 5 - 1 +7 +12 A A F -3 A F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 178 @Quinnipiac W 74 - 70 30% +4  8 - 6 6 - 1 +6 +3 B- F D+ +2 C+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 352 Rider W 69 - 58 87% +4  9 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -2 D B+ D -2 C F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 227 Iona W 77 - 63 61% +3  10 - 6 8 - 1 +7 +5 B+ D- D- +3 A+ D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 205 @Merrimack L 59 - 67 35% -11  10 - 7 8 - 2 -8 -6 F B- F -3 C F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 30 286 Mount St. Mary's W 70 - 64 73%
 Sun, Feb 1 352 @Rider W 68 - 62 73%
 Thu, Feb 5 327 @Manhattan W 73 - 70 63%
 Sat, Feb 7 173 Siena W 67 - 66 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 277 @Sacred Heart L 72 - 73 49%
 Sun, Feb 15 271 Fairfield W 73 - 68 69%
 Fri, Feb 20 227 @Iona L 68 - 71 39%
 Sun, Feb 22 173 @Siena L 63 - 69 30%
 Fri, Feb 27 327 Manhattan W 76 - 67 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 160 @Marist L 59 - 66 26%
Totals 16 - 11 14 - 6 -4 -4 D- C+ C- +1 C+ D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.3 9.8 7.6 2.6 0.5 24.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 11.0 6.7 1.0 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 8.2 7.5 0.6 17.4 3rd
4th 0.4 4.9 8.3 1.4 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 7.0 2.4 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.2 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.7 2.9 7.6 15.3 21.6 23.2 17.0 8.6 2.7 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
17-3 97.4% 2.6    2.4 0.3
16-4 88.8% 7.6    5.2 2.3 0.2
15-5 57.5% 9.8    3.0 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 14.2% 3.3    0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 11.2 8.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.5% 26.7% 26.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 2.7% 18.1% 18.1% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.2
16-4 8.6% 18.3% 18.3% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 7.0
15-5 17.0% 14.6% 14.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 14.5
14-6 23.2% 10.7% 10.7% 15.2 0.2 1.5 0.8 20.8
13-7 21.6% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.9 19.9
12-8 15.3% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.2 0.7 14.4
11-9 7.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.3
10-10 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
9-11 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.1 90.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.3 4.2 58.3 37.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%