Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #283
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #258
Pace 66.3 #256
Improvement +6.6 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #270 D+ C- F D F
Defense #276 F C- B B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #239 1.25 #92 +0.3 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #22 0.58 #351 +1.2 #107
Three Pointers 33% #331 0.99 #214 -4.6 #321
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #257 -3.1 #259
Freethrows 15.8 #266 67% #333 10.5 #303
Second Chance 32.1% #137 0.93 #305 0.30 #228
Turnovers 20.9% #356
Total Offense -3.6 #270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.35 #352 -4.8 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #361 0.78 #222 +2.8 #15
Three Pointers 47% #35 1.22 #360 -7.9 #360
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #364 -9.9 #364
Freethrows 15.9 #109 72% #152 11.4 #259
Second Chance 35.3% #324 0.97 #87 0.34 #242
Turnovers 18.7% #67
Total Defense -3.3 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #333 2.3% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.0% #221 16.9% #362
Possession Length 18.3 #273 17.0 #129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #119 0.25 #356
Improvement +4.2 #9 +2.3 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 10.0% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 22.0% 27.7% 9.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 88.9% 68.0%
Conference Champion 11.2% 14.3% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four4.8% 5.2% 4.0%
First Round6.3% 7.4% 4.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 27% -7  0 - 1 -21 -3 D+ B F -18 F F B-
 Wed, Nov 12 106 @Marquette L 49 - 89 10% -18  0 - 2 -33 -16 F F F -18 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 303 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 44% +2  1 - 2 +1 -4 C- A+ F +5 F C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 89 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 7% -16  1 - 3 -11 +1 F A+ F -14 F F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 261 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 34% -5  1 - 4 -12 -12 F D- F -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 126 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 14% -1  1 - 5 -4 +3 A D F -8 F A A+
 Wed, Dec 3 265 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 35% -29  1 - 6 -41 -28 F F F -12 F B A-
 Sat, Dec 6 133 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 30% -8  1 - 7 -14 +2 A F B -15 F C D
 Tue, Dec 9 59 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 5% -22  1 - 8 -20 -2 F B- C+ -22 F C C+
 Tue, Dec 16 304 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 44% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -19 -15 F D+ F -3 F D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 343 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 56% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 +7 +5 A+ F F +2 D F C
 Thu, Jan 1 314 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 69% +5  3 - 9 2 - 1 +7 +1 B F C +6 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 226 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 48% -3  3 - 10 2 - 2 -12 -1 F A+ D+ -10 C- F D
 Thu, Jan 8 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 38% -6  4 - 10 3 - 2 -1 +10 C- C- A+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 252 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 33% +5  5 - 10 4 - 2 +6 +11 B+ A- D- -5 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 311 Eastern Illinois W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Jan 17 357 Western Illinois W 72 - 61 85%
 Thu, Jan 22 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 77 27%
 Sat, Jan 24 225 @Tennessee Martin L 66 - 72 27%
 Thu, Jan 29 226 @Tennessee St. L 72 - 78 27%
 Sat, Jan 31 314 @Tennessee Tech L 72 - 73 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 252 Lindenwood W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 278 SIU Edwardsville W 69 - 66 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 357 @Western Illinois W 69 - 64 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @Eastern Illinois L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 225 Tennessee Martin L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 73 - 74 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 304 Morehead St. W 72 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 343 Southern Indiana W 75 - 68 75%
Totals 12 - 17 11 - 9 -7 -4 D+ C- F -3 F C- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.0 5.0 1.2 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.7 6.0 1.1 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.8 7.2 1.3 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.8 7.5 2.0 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 6.2 2.9 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.3 0.3 9.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.4 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.0 9.7 14.5 17.8 17.9 14.5 10.0 5.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-4 94.0% 1.8    1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 76.1% 4.0    2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 37.8% 3.8    1.0 1.8 0.7 0.2
13-7 7.3% 1.1    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 5.5 3.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 34.9% 34.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.9% 30.6% 30.6% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.3
15-5 5.2% 24.2% 24.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 4.0
14-6 10.0% 21.3% 21.3% 15.9 0.3 1.9 7.8
13-7 14.5% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.1 1.9 12.5
12-8 17.9% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3 16.6
11-9 17.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.7 17.1
10-10 14.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 14.2
9-11 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.6
8-12 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 2.4% 2.4
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 15.9 91.4 0.0%