Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.3 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +10.2 #61
Pace 74.5 #53
Improvement -4.4 #347

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #66 B A+ C C+ B+
Defense #72 B B+ C A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #58 1.21 #116 +4.0 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #307 0.74 #191 -2.4 #298
Three Pointers 42% #160 1.09 #87 +2.1 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #80 +3.7 #81
Freethrows 19.4 #87 69% #280 13.4 #135
Second Chance 37.8% #26 1.25 #13 0.47 #9
Turnovers 16.1% #150
Total Offense +5.2 #66

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.12 #128 -3.5 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #146 0.55 #6 +1.8 #64
Three Pointers 32% #354 0.94 #93 +5.6 #16
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #64 +3.8 #64
Freethrows 12.8 #20 70% #73 8.9 #351
Second Chance 28.1% #94 0.91 #35 0.25 #40
Turnovers 16.6% #186
Total Defense +4.1 #72

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #45 0.9% #251
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.9% #108 -8.3% #48
Possession Length 15.4 #34 18.1 #297
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #61 0.19 #236
Improvement -3.3 #344 -1.1 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 29.7% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.9% 28.2% 13.3%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.1
.500 or above 82.8% 91.2% 74.1%
.500 or above in Conference 33.8% 46.0% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.3% 8.7%
First Four8.9% 11.0% 6.7%
First Round17.3% 23.8% 10.7%
Second Round6.3% 9.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 9
Quad 26 - 48 - 13
Quad 35 - 213 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 343 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 98% +18  1 - 0 +16 +4 C B+ D +9 A A C-
 Sat, Nov 8 353 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 98% +14  2 - 0 +16 +4 D- A+ C +4 B+ A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 349 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98% +24  3 - 0 +16 +12 A- A+ D+ +2 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 30 @SMU L 85 - 87 21% +0  3 - 1 +16 +13 A+ B F +3 D A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 69 South Carolina W 79 - 72 55% +7  4 - 1 +15 +11 C A+ C +4 A+ A F
 Sun, Nov 23 17 Virginia W 80 - 73 23% +5  5 - 1 +24 +16 A+ C- D +8 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 142 Wright St. W 94 - 69 85% +5  6 - 1 +23 +13 A+ A+ A+ +8 B+ A C
 Tue, Dec 2 211 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 91% +7  7 - 1 +10 +15 A+ A+ C- -4 C+ C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 78 Boise St. L 68 - 77 68% -2  7 - 2 -5 +2 C A+ A -7 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 13 68 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 65% -0  8 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +18 A- A+ A+ -11 C B+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 4 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 9% -10  8 - 3 1 - 1 +5 +0 F A- A+ +5 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 63 Northwestern W 61 - 58 52% +4  9 - 3 +12 -6 D- C+ F +18 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 352 NJIT W 101 - 52 98% +29  10 - 3 +33 +18 A+ A+ A- +12 C A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 43 @Creighton L 85 - 89 28% -7  10 - 4 1 - 2 +11 +15 C+ A+ C+ -4 C F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 34 Villanova L 67 - 85 43% -3  10 - 5 1 - 3 -7 -3 F A+ C -4 D A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 15 St. John's L 70 - 84 31% +1  10 - 6 1 - 4 +0 +3 A+ F F -2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 92 @Xavier W 80 - 79 51%
 Sat, Jan 17 49 @Seton Hall L 69 - 74 33%
 Tue, Jan 20 98 DePaul W 77 - 70 75%
 Fri, Jan 23 106 Marquette W 83 - 75 76%
 Wed, Jan 28 15 @St. John's L 75 - 86 15%
 Sat, Jan 31 100 Georgetown W 82 - 75 75%
 Wed, Feb 4 68 @Providence L 85 - 87 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 106 @Marquette W 80 - 78 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 4 Connecticut L 69 - 78 21%
 Sun, Feb 15 49 Seton Hall W 72 - 71 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 100 @Georgetown W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 92 Xavier W 82 - 76 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 34 @Villanova L 69 - 77 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 43 Creighton W 78 - 77 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 98 @DePaul W 74 - 73 55%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 11 +9 +5 B A+ C +4 B B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.0 5.1 1.6 0.2 15.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.5 10.6 7.5 1.8 0.2 27.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.7 8.4 3.7 0.5 0.0 19.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.7 5.5 2.1 0.2 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.2 9.7 13.8 17.4 17.1 14.8 9.9 5.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 92.0% 4.0% 88.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.7%
14-6 0.8% 97.4% 9.3% 88.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.1%
13-7 2.5% 90.7% 4.7% 86.0% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 90.3%
12-8 5.6% 77.4% 4.9% 72.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 1.3 76.3%
11-9 9.9% 57.2% 3.3% 53.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 4.2 55.8%
10-10 14.8% 40.3% 2.6% 37.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.2 0.0 8.9 38.7%
9-11 17.1% 13.8% 1.7% 12.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.1 14.8 12.4%
8-12 17.4% 3.2% 0.9% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 16.8 2.3%
7-13 13.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.1%
6-14 9.7% 0.7% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 9.6
5-15 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 5.2
4-16 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 22.3% 1.8% 20.5% 9.9 77.7 20.9%