Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #251
Pace 72.9 #80
Improvement +2.8 #50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #307 F C+ D- B+ F
Defense #256 D+ F B- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.06 #297 -2.4 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #12 0.64 #317 +2.8 #57
Three Pointers 29% #357 0.88 #323 -7.8 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #351 -7.5 #351
Freethrows 20.1 #53 74% #134 15.0 #58
Second Chance 33.3% #113 1.03 #200 0.34 #125
Turnovers 19.2% #323
Total Offense -5.0 #307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #101 1.15 #166 -1.6 #237
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #236 0.95 #360 -1.0 #262
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.04 #219 +0.0 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.7 #267
Freethrows 21.7 #343 68% #36 14.9 #47
Second Chance 37.3% #350 1.11 #268 0.41 #343
Turnovers 17.8% #102
Total Defense -2.6 #256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #339 1.0% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.8% #344 4.2% #266
Possession Length 17.4 #178 16.3 #38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #139 0.22 #314
Improvement -0.1 #189 +3.0 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 1.5% 3.0% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 11.5% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.2% 24.0% 45.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 47 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 81 @California L 60 - 87 6% -14  0 - 1 -17 -11 D- F F -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 357 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 83% +7  1 - 1 -2 -1 D- F F +0 F B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 65 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 5% -11  1 - 2 -10 +1 D+ B- D -14 A- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 145 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 14% -7  1 - 3 -9 +7 C A+ F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 95% +12  2 - 3 -11 -2 F B+ B- -9 F B F
 Tue, Nov 25 117 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 11% -13  2 - 4 -24 -21 F B- F +1 C D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 152 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 15% -4  3 - 4 +8 +6 D- D+ A+ +2 A+ F A-
 Thu, Dec 4 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 24% -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -21 -11 F A F -9 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 20% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -24 +6 A+ F C -28 F F F
 Thu, Dec 11 148 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 30% -6  3 - 7 -13 -9 F B F -4 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 286 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 59% -4  3 - 8 -18 -11 F F F -7 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 23 194 Idaho W 64 - 63 40% +2  4 - 8 -4 -9 C C F +5 A+ C B
 Thu, Jan 1 122 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 25% -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -5 +8 C- A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 188 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 20% -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +3 +6 D- B+ A- -3 C F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 287 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 60% +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -9 -11 F A+ F +1 D+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 264 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 32% -5  6 - 10 2 - 4 -9 -5 D- F D+ -3 D F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 181 UC Santa Barbara L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Jan 17 109 UC San Diego L 70 - 79 20%
 Fri, Jan 23 104 @Hawaii L 64 - 79 7%
 Thu, Jan 29 249 Cal Poly W 83 - 82 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 188 UC Davis L 75 - 78 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 122 @UC Irvine L 65 - 78 11%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 85 26%
 Thu, Feb 12 104 Hawaii L 67 - 76 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 287 @UC Riverside L 72 - 75 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 231 Cal St. Fullerton L 81 - 82 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 109 @UC San Diego L 67 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 264 Long Beach St. W 75 - 74 55%
 Thu, Mar 5 216 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 81 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 249 @Cal Poly L 79 - 85 31%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -8 -5 F C+ D- -3 D+ F B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.4 2.1 0.2 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.3 4.9 0.6 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 7.1 7.8 1.2 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.1 9.2 2.2 0.1 24.3 10th
11th 1.0 4.4 8.3 7.0 2.1 0.1 23.0 11th
Total 1.0 4.8 11.6 17.6 19.8 17.8 13.5 7.8 3.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 4.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.9
9-11 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
8-12 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.4
7-13 17.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.8
6-14 19.8% 19.8
5-15 17.6% 17.6
4-16 11.6% 11.6
3-17 4.8% 4.8
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%