Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #216
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 #196
Pace 79.3 #14
Improvement +4.6 #15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #202 C C- C- C- B+
Defense #231 C C- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.12 #226 +4.1 #56
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.69 #262 -2.0 #275
Three Pointers 36% #283 1.02 #172 -2.3 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.2 #185
Freethrows 17.3 #194 69% #292 11.9 #229
Second Chance 32.5% #129 0.93 #312 0.30 #220
Turnovers 17.6% #242
Total Offense -1.3 #202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.20 #239 +2.0 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #249 0.79 #237 +0.6 #150
Three Pointers 48% #24 0.99 #157 -3.2 #305
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #194 -0.5 #195
Freethrows 16.7 #151 78% #351 13.0 #156
Second Chance 26.6% #53 1.30 #360 0.34 #249
Turnovers 14.9% #284
Total Defense -1.7 #231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #48 -0.1% #159
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.7% #215 1.1% #206
Possession Length 15.1 #28 17.2 #168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #118 0.19 #252
Improvement +1.2 #107 +3.4 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 4.4% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 40.9% 62.4% 36.4%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 71.1% 43.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.5% 5.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.4% 4.4% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 411 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 107 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 17% -17  0 - 1 -22 -10 F D- F -11 F D- C
 Sun, Nov 9 319 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 63% +4  1 - 1 +2 +9 B C+ D+ -8 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 148 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 26% -5  1 - 2 -18 -13 F A- F -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 16 125 Troy W 94 - 85 42% +4  2 - 2 +8 +17 A- A+ D -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 194 Idaho L 64 - 78 46% -4  2 - 3 -16 -15 F C C- -0 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 196 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 47% -18  2 - 4 -34 -31 F D- F -1 B- F C+
 Thu, Dec 4 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 76% +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +10 +5 C+ B- C +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 122 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 21% +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -9 +5 C+ F A+ -14 C- F D
 Wed, Dec 10 152 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 49% +4  4 - 5 -1 +16 A+ F B -17 F A F
 Sat, Dec 13 271 @Delaware W 88 - 66 51% +19  5 - 5 +19 +18 A+ C- B +1 B B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 307 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 79% +4  6 - 5 +0 +7 A F B+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Dec 27 77 @Stanford L 80 - 88 11% -1  6 - 6 +2 +8 A- F C -5 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 188 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 33% -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -8 +0 C- D F -7 F A B
 Sat, Jan 3 181 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 56% +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +4 -7 D C+ F +11 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 249 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 68% -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -3 +6 A+ B- D -9 D+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 231 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 41% +1  8 - 8 3 - 3 -8 -3 C- D C -4 D C C-
 Thu, Jan 15 109 @UC San Diego L 74 - 84 17%
 Sat, Jan 17 264 Long Beach St. W 82 - 76 70%
 Sun, Jan 25 104 @Hawaii L 71 - 82 15%
 Thu, Jan 29 188 UC Davis W 82 - 80 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 109 UC San Diego L 77 - 81 35%
 Thu, Feb 5 249 @Cal Poly L 87 - 88 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 UC Riverside W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 104 Hawaii L 74 - 79 32%
 Thu, Feb 19 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 82 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 264 @Long Beach St. L 79 - 80 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 122 UC Irvine L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 287 @UC Riverside W 78 - 77 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 79 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 89 - 85 63%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3 -1 C C- C- -2 C C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.2 4.2 0.9 0.1 16.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.5 8.1 5.3 0.8 0.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 7.9 5.1 0.7 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.6 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.5 4.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.7 10.4 15.0 17.7 17.7 14.5 8.8 4.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 46.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 18.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 13.0% 13.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.9% 16.4% 16.4% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.6
13-7 4.8% 8.6% 8.6% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.4
12-8 8.8% 5.4% 5.4% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.3
11-9 14.5% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.1
10-10 17.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.3
9-11 17.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.1 0.1 17.6
8-12 15.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.9
7-13 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
6-14 5.7% 5.7
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.5 97.6 0.0%