California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #157
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #115
Pace 63.9 #320
Improvement -4.5 #348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #190 D C+ C- C B+
Defense #132 C+ B D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #16 1.02 #321 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #249 0.77 #155 -1.1 #234
Three Pointers 36% #285 0.93 #281 -4.0 #308
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #283 -3.5 #283
Freethrows 17.9 #153 73% #171 13.1 #148
Second Chance 38.2% #22 0.92 #317 0.35 #108
Turnovers 17.5% #238
Total Offense -1.0 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.09 #91 +0.3 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #124 0.79 #239 -0.9 #249
Three Pointers 38% #270 0.98 #129 +2.4 #94
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #116 +1.9 #116
Freethrows 18.3 #229 75% #293 13.7 #100
Second Chance 26.7% #56 1.01 #130 0.27 #62
Turnovers 15.1% #271
Total Defense +1.1 #132

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #54 0.0% #163
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #315 -3.6% #112
Possession Length 18.3 #278 17.6 #227
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #322 0.18 #186
Improvement -2.9 #330 -1.6 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 15.9% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 98.2% 99.6% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.2% 82.9% 59.4%
Conference Champion 7.1% 10.7% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 2.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.7% 15.9% 11.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 415 - 221 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 299 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 85% +8  1 - 0 +1 +10 A D- A+ -9 D+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 122 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 30% +3  2 - 0 +13 +2 C C+ F +12 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 357 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 94% +6  3 - 0 -8 -1 F F A+ -5 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 287 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 84% +15  4 - 0 +13 -4 F C D- +15 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 21 269 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 81% +13  5 - 0 +4 +2 A+ F F +3 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 222 San Diego W 76 - 61 63% +2  6 - 0 +12 +1 D A+ F +10 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 189 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 46% +2  7 - 0 +7 +5 B- F A+ +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 73 @Colorado L 70 - 78 16% +2  7 - 1 +3 +2 D- C- C +0 B+ C- C
 Wed, Dec 3 11 BYU L 44 - 66 4% -18  7 - 2 -2 +2 D- C A+ -15 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 113 @Utah L 85 - 91 26% -4  7 - 3 +1 +13 D A+ D+ -12 C+ F D
 Fri, Dec 12 255 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 60% +5  8 - 3 +3 +11 C+ A+ F -9 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 16 263 Southern W 75 - 67 80% +4  9 - 3 -1 -0 F D- A- -1 B- C B+
 Sat, Dec 20 307 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 86% +2  10 - 3 -5 -2 F A+ F -3 B+ F C
 Mon, Dec 29 101 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 22% -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 +1 -2 A+ F F +3 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 154 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 38% -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -13 D- D F +3 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 173 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 43% -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -3 +0 C A+ F -3 D- A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 232 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 75% +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +5 +18 D- A+ A+ -11 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 323 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 88% +6  12 - 6 2 - 3 -10 -11 F A- A+ +1 A+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 212 @Abilene Christian W 69 - 68 50%
 Wed, Jan 21 232 Utah Tech W 74 - 67 74%
 Sat, Jan 24 101 Utah Valley L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 68 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 173 Tarleton St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 212 Abilene Christian W 71 - 65 71%
 Thu, Feb 12 323 @Southern Utah W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 232 @Utah Tech W 71 - 70 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 101 @Utah Valley L 67 - 75 23%
 Thu, Feb 26 154 Texas Arlington W 68 - 65 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 173 Tarleton St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Thu, Mar 5 212 Abilene Christian W 71 - 65 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 323 @Southern Utah W 73 - 66 74%
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +0 -1 D C+ C- +1 C+ B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.7 1.4 0.3 7.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.6 9.3 7.3 2.6 0.2 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.0 10.7 6.5 1.0 0.0 23.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 5.2 9.8 4.5 0.5 0.0 20.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.5 6.8 2.6 0.2 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.4 8.5 13.7 17.7 19.0 16.7 10.6 5.3 1.7 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 85.2% 1.4    1.0 0.4
13-5 50.5% 2.7    1.3 1.2 0.1
12-6 21.6% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 39.2% 39.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-4 1.7% 33.0% 33.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1
13-5 5.3% 29.7% 29.7% 13.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 3.7
12-6 10.6% 26.5% 26.5% 13.3 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.1 7.8
11-7 16.7% 18.6% 18.6% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.2 13.6
10-8 19.0% 12.3% 12.3% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 16.7
9-9 17.7% 9.3% 9.3% 14.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 16.1
8-10 13.7% 7.9% 7.9% 14.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 12.6
7-11 8.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.1
6-12 4.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.4 0.1 0.0 4.3
5-13 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 13.6 86.3 0.0%