Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.7 #56
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #134
Pace 72.7 #86
Improvement +3.1 #44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #174 C C C+ D C+
Defense #8 B+ A- A B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.26 #84 +1.0 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #276 0.70 #249 -2.1 #282
Three Pointers 47% #71 0.96 #245 +1.7 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #165 +0.6 #165
Freethrows 16.7 #227 65% #351 10.8 #288
Second Chance 30.2% #201 1.03 #203 0.31 #186
Turnovers 15.6% #119
Total Offense -0.2 #174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 0.96 #12 +6.0 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #95 0.85 #316 -2.2 #332
Three Pointers 43% #137 0.96 #109 +0.4 #166
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #59 +4.1 #59
Freethrows 15.3 #83 68% #25 10.4 #316
Second Chance 22.9% #7 1.08 #246 0.25 #34
Turnovers 20.7% #17
Total Defense +9.9 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #125 -1.3% #73
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #169 -6.8% #64
Possession Length 15.7 #51 18.2 #312
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #43 0.09 #9
Improvement +3.2 #28 -0.1 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.1% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.9% 5.0% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.2
.500 or above 25.7% 32.1% 12.2%
.500 or above in Conference 11.1% 14.6% 3.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 7.7% 21.8%
First Four2.0% 2.5% 0.9%
First Round3.1% 4.0% 1.2%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 67.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 13
Quad 24 - 36 - 16
Quad 33 - 08 - 17
Quad 46 - 115 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 291 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 96% +20  1 - 0 +21 +4 A+ C F +12 B+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 290 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 96% +6  2 - 0 -0 -7 F D+ F +6 C C- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 70 Dayton W 74 - 62 67% +9  3 - 0 +17 -4 A+ F F +20 A+ A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 297 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 96% +0  4 - 0 +6 -7 D- F C- +12 B A A+
 Fri, Nov 21 19 Louisville L 64 - 74 26% -1  4 - 1 +6 -4 B F C- +11 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 352 NJIT W 104 - 80 98% +16  5 - 1 +8 +7 B+ C B- -4 C F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 211 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 92% -9  5 - 2 -14 -14 F F D- -1 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 173 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 89% +8  6 - 2 +14 +1 B+ A- F +13 B A- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 92 @Xavier L 74 - 79 53% -4  6 - 3 +4 +3 F A+ A+ +2 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 23 Georgia L 65 - 84 28% -1  6 - 4 -3 -7 D- C- C+ +5 A D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 306 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 96% +21  7 - 4 +26 +9 B- F A+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 33 Clemson L 65 - 68 34% -13  7 - 5 +11 +4 C A- C +7 C A+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 167 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 89% +16  8 - 5 +23 +12 B- A+ A+ +10 A C- A
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Houston L 60 - 67 21% +1  8 - 6 0 - 1 +11 +3 A D+ C +7 A C+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 59 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 40% -3  8 - 7 0 - 2 +10 -0 C D+ A+ +10 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 50 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 36% -1  8 - 8 0 - 3 +13 +7 D+ A+ A+ +5 D- A- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 73 Colorado W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 17 6 Iowa St. L 66 - 74 22%
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 66 - 84 5%
 Sat, Jan 24 82 @Arizona St. L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Jan 28 37 Baylor L 73 - 74 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 5 @Houston L 58 - 72 9%
 Thu, Feb 5 59 West Virginia W 68 - 65 62%
 Sun, Feb 8 50 Central Florida W 76 - 74 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 74 @Kansas St. L 77 - 78 46%
 Sun, Feb 15 113 Utah W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 18 @Kansas L 66 - 76 17%
 Tue, Feb 24 21 @Texas Tech L 67 - 77 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 62 Oklahoma St. W 81 - 77 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 11 BYU L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Mar 7 45 @TCU L 67 - 72 33%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +10 +0 C C C+ +10 B+ A- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 4.7 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 6.4 2.4 0.1 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 5.8 5.3 0.5 12.0 11th
12th 0.1 3.3 7.9 1.6 0.0 12.9 12th
13th 0.0 1.6 7.2 3.9 0.2 12.8 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 5.3 5.1 0.6 0.0 12.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 3.8 4.6 1.1 0.0 10.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.0 5.8 16th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.0 12.4 17.2 19.7 16.9 12.1 6.8 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 14.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 96.7% 1.7% 95.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.6%
11-7 1.1% 76.3% 0.9% 75.4% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 76.1%
10-8 2.8% 44.4% 0.4% 44.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.6 44.2%
9-9 6.8% 17.3% 0.2% 17.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.0 5.6 17.2%
8-10 12.1% 2.4% 0.3% 2.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.8 2.1%
7-11 16.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 16.8 0.2%
6-12 19.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 19.7 0.0%
5-13 17.2% 17.2
4-14 12.4% 12.4
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.0% 0.1% 3.9% 10.0 96.0 3.9%