Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#65
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#138
Pace79.3#18
Improvement-1.8#318

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#191
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#235
Layup/Dunks+1.8#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement-0.6#250

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#6
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#83
Layups/Dunks+6.4#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement-1.2#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 18.4% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.1% 18.0% 8.4%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 9.2
.500 or above 53.3% 56.0% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 25.6% 26.7% 16.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 9.9% 15.4%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 2.4%
First Round15.3% 16.2% 7.2%
Second Round7.3% 7.7% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 90.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 37 - 14
Quad 33 - 110 - 15
Quad 46 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 278 Western Carolina W 94-63 94%     1 - 0 +21.6 +6.1 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 7 337 Georgia St. W 74-64 97%     2 - 0 -3.7 -8.6 +4.2
  Tue, Nov 11 78 Dayton W 74-62 65%     3 - 0 +16.5 -6.0 +20.9
  Sun, Nov 16 297 Mount St. Mary's W 72-55 95%     4 - 0 +6.6 -8.3 +14.2
  Fri, Nov 21 9 Louisville L 64-74 16%     4 - 1 +9.1 -2.8 +12.1
  Mon, Nov 24 349 NJIT W 104-80 97%     5 - 1 +9.2 +8.5 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 209 Eastern Michigan L 56-64 91%     5 - 2 -14.0 -15.1 +0.5
  Mon, Dec 1 195 Tarleton St. W 81-67 90%    
  Fri, Dec 5 85 @Xavier L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Dec 13 34 Georgia L 79-84 34%    
  Wed, Dec 17 266 Alabama St. W 82-65 94%    
  Sun, Dec 21 38 Clemson L 67-71 36%    
  Mon, Dec 29 176 Lipscomb W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 5 Houston L 62-70 23%    
  Tue, Jan 6 71 @West Virginia L 66-68 42%    
  Sun, Jan 11 68 @Central Florida L 79-81 41%    
  Wed, Jan 14 72 Colorado W 78-74 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 4 Iowa St. L 70-78 22%    
  Wed, Jan 21 11 @Arizona L 69-82 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 83 @Arizona St. L 75-76 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 28 Baylor L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 5 @Houston L 59-73 10%    
  Thu, Feb 5 71 West Virginia W 69-65 63%    
  Sun, Feb 8 68 Central Florida W 82-78 62%    
  Wed, Feb 11 54 @Kansas St. L 79-83 35%    
  Sun, Feb 15 125 Utah W 79-70 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 18 @Kansas L 66-77 16%    
  Tue, Feb 24 24 @Texas Tech L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 46 Oklahoma St. W 82-81 52%    
  Tue, Mar 3 7 BYU L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Mar 7 51 @TCU L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.2 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.0 1.7 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.3 3.6 5.6 1.1 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 5.8 2.3 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.2 4.6 3.7 0.4 0.0 9.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 15th
16th 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.3 16th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.7 5.8 9.5 12.3 14.9 15.1 13.2 9.8 7.0 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 77.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 40.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.4% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.2% 96.3% 4.8% 91.5% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.1%
12-6 2.4% 92.9% 2.1% 90.8% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 92.7%
11-7 4.7% 82.8% 1.8% 80.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.8 82.5%
10-8 7.0% 62.5% 0.8% 61.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 62.2%
9-9 9.8% 34.8% 0.5% 34.3% 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.1 6.4 34.5%
8-10 13.2% 10.5% 0.1% 10.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 11.8 10.4%
7-11 15.1% 2.6% 0.1% 2.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 14.7 2.5%
6-12 14.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 14.8 0.2%
5-13 12.3% 12.3
4-14 9.5% 9.5
3-15 5.8% 5.8
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 17.4% 0.4% 17.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.2 0.2 0.0 82.6 17.1%