East Texas A&M
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #259
Pace 71.9 #102
Improvement -1.0 #241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #344 D+ F F F C
Defense #240 D D+ C+ C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.15 #194 -2.2 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #239 0.70 #251 -1.6 #260
Three Pointers 47% #58 0.92 #294 +0.9 #143
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #254 -2.8 #253
Freethrows 14.1 #328 68% #307 9.6 #335
Second Chance 25.0% #323 0.92 #316 0.23 #340
Turnovers 19.6% #335
Total Offense -7.7 #344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.17 #185 -4.7 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #309 0.74 #157 +1.7 #66
Three Pointers 38% #272 1.15 #337 -0.8 #212
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #294 -3.7 #295
Freethrows 18.1 #221 68% #38 12.4 #191
Second Chance 32.5% #254 1.08 #236 0.35 #257
Turnovers 17.4% #124
Total Defense -2.0 #240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #170 2.3% #350
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #268 4.9% #276
Possession Length 17.0 #149 16.5 #57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #217 0.19 #253
Improvement -1.8 #290 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 3.9% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.7% 21.9% 54.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 48 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 48 @New Mexico L 54 - 76 2% -16  0 - 1 -8 -15 F F F +9 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 104 @Hawaii L 74 - 100 6% -17  0 - 2 -18 +2 A- D F -18 F F C
 Fri, Nov 14 247 @Rice L 64 - 71 23% -2  0 - 3 -9 -6 C- D- F -3 F D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 65 52% -5  1 - 3 -5 -5 D D- F -0 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 330 Army W 84 - 67 54% +10  2 - 3 +6 +6 A+ F F +1 C B- B-
 Fri, Dec 5 4 @Connecticut L 59 - 83 1% -13  2 - 4 +0 +3 A+ F D+ -4 B B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 265 Central Arkansas W 75 - 68 47% +1  3 - 4 -2 -6 F B D+ +4 D+ A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 12 80 @McNeese St. L 66 - 102 4% -26  3 - 5 0 - 1 -26 -10 C- F F -12 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 266 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 69 26% -1  4 - 5 1 - 1 -2 +4 C+ F C+ -6 F B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 40 @Texas A&M L 77 - 118 2% -22  4 - 6 -25 -1 F F B -17 F F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 108 Stephen F. Austin L 48 - 75 16% -6  4 - 7 1 - 2 -26 -18 D+ F F -10 D+ C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 220 Lamar L 62 - 69 37% +0  4 - 8 1 - 3 -13 -7 F A+ F -7 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 205 @Nicholls St. L 58 - 80 17% -12  4 - 9 1 - 4 -22 -18 F F F -3 C D- A-
 Mon, Jan 5 245 @New Orleans L 73 - 83 23% -8  4 - 10 1 - 5 -12 -5 D+ F C -7 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 69 40% +9  5 - 10 2 - 5 +1 +7 A A+ D+ -6 F C+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 50 - 61 31% -5  5 - 11 2 - 6 -16 -20 F D D +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 301 @Houston Christian L 68 - 73 33%
 Mon, Jan 19 187 @Incarnate Word L 64 - 75 15%
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 29%
 Mon, Jan 26 220 @Lamar L 62 - 71 19%
 Sat, Jan 31 205 Nicholls St. L 72 - 76 36%
 Mon, Feb 2 245 New Orleans L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 276 Northwestern St. W 72 - 71 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 77 6%
 Sat, Feb 14 80 McNeese St. L 66 - 80 10%
 Mon, Feb 16 266 SE Louisiana L 68 - 69 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 187 Incarnate Word L 67 - 72 32%
 Mon, Feb 23 301 Houston Christian W 71 - 70 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 76 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 74 16%
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 16 -10 -8 D+ F F -2 D D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.6 0.3 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.1 0.9 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 6.7 8.3 2.2 0.1 18.8 10th
11th 0.2 2.7 9.0 10.2 3.2 0.2 25.5 11th
12th 1.4 5.9 10.0 8.5 2.8 0.3 28.9 12th
Total 1.4 6.1 12.7 18.9 20.4 17.3 12.0 6.4 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0% 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.4% 0.4
11-11 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-12 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-13 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
8-14 12.0% 12.0
7-15 17.3% 17.3
6-16 20.4% 20.4
5-17 18.9% 18.9
4-18 12.7% 12.7
3-19 6.1% 6.1
2-20 1.4% 1.4
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%