Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.9 249
Results Rating -5.0 246
Consistency 0.17 286
Pace 63.9 305
Improvement -6.7 363

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 156 C+ C+ C- C+ B-
Defense D 320 D C- D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 185 C- 56% 220 -0.8 214
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 288 B- 41% 86 -1.9 276
Three Pointers 47% 54 B- 36% 105 +4.4 44
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 85 C+ +0.8 131
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 125
Second Chance B- 32.8% 103 C- 1.00 231 C+ 0.33 136
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.7% 295
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 138
Turnovers C- 17.6% 239
Freethrows C 0.31 172 B- 74% 115 C+ 0.23 145
Total Offense C +0.4 156

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 308 D+ 12.4% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 177 B- 3.9% 96
Three Pointers D+ 79% 289 B 0.3% 38
Total C- 53% 242 C 5.4% 170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 119 D+ 61% 256 +2.7 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 200 F 49% 365 +1.7 314
Three Pointers 39% 235 C 34% 188 -0.9 150
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 222 D +3.2 307
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 300
Second Chance C 29.9% 171 D+ 1.09 275 C- 0.33 226
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.2% 330
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 138
Turnovers D 14.7% 299
Freethrows C- 0.33 253 F 77% 357 D 0.25 299
Total Defense D -5.3 320

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 97 C+ 12.6% 102
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 138 C 5.1% 158
Three Pointers B 79% 53 A- 2.2% 22
Total B 50% 63 B- 7.0% 73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 352 16.8 88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 325 0.20 288
Consistency 0.11 58 0.18 364
Improvement -2.5 308 -4.2 347

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 271 252 228
Results Rating Rank 286 249 226
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 9 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 12% 3% 23%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 511 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 233 @San Diego W 71 - 68 35% +7  78% 1 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 C- C- B+ C+ +1 C+ C+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 44 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 4% -11  0% 1 - 1 C -1 C -0 A- C- F C- -3 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 125 @Seattle L 74 - 83 16% -9  1% 1 - 2 C- -3 A+ +17 B+ A+ C F -21 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 43 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 4% -5  2% 1 - 3 B- +6 F+ -10 C- F F A+ +15 A+ B D-
 Wed, Nov 26 105 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 20% -1  29% 1 - 4 C +1 B- +4 A F F C- -3 C+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 157 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 32% +18  82% 2 - 4 A+ +32 C +1 B- A D A+ +28 A+ B B
 Wed, Dec 3 360 @UMKC W 68 - 59 80% +0  26% 3 - 4 C- -5 C +0 D B D- D+ -4 D- C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 243 Denver W 93 - 79 61% +6  81% 4 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A- B A D+ -5 C F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 96 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 11% +1  40% 4 - 5 C+ +5 C +1 B- F B- B +4 C B+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 175 UC Davis L 83 - 93 47% -8  2% 4 - 6 D- -14 A- +11 A+ C+ B F -26 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 274 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 67% +10  93% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 B+ D+ A- C -0 B- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 158 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 43% +5  75% 5 - 7 1 - 1 D -9 A- +10 A+ D+ A F -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 168 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 25% -11  1% 5 - 8 1 - 2 D -11 C+ +2 D+ C D- F -14 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 310 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 54% +2  60% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C- -4 B +7 A- A- F F -11 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 179 Idaho W 76 - 68 47% -2  15% 7 - 8 3 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +2 A F B- B- +2 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 178 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 47% -15  0% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -22 F -11 F B A F -11 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 152 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 22% -5  4% 7 - 10 3 - 4 D -9 D -4 D+ B+ B- D -6 C F F
 Sat, Jan 24 192 @Montana L 60 - 69 28% -8  1% 7 - 11 3 - 5 D+ -8 F -11 F B- F B- +3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 208 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 31% +4  86% 7 - 12 3 - 6 C -2 B- +4 A F C D -6 C- F+ C
 Mon, Feb 2 158 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 23% -13  4% 7 - 13 3 - 7 F -20 B- +4 C- A+ F F -27 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 310 Northern Arizona L 73 - 79 75% -4  15% 7 - 14 3 - 8 F -18 C+ +2 B- B A F -21 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 168 Northern Colorado L 61 - 69 46% -3  24% 7 - 15 3 - 9 D- -12 F -12 F B- B- C -0 C- F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 178 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 88 26% -7  24% 7 - 16 3 - 10 D -11 C+ +3 D A- F+ F -15 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 14 179 @Idaho L 69 - 99 26% -25  0% 7 - 17 3 - 11 F -28 D- -8 F B C+ F -19 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 192 Montana W 73 - 69 50% -2  30% 8 - 17 4 - 11 C -1 C- -1 B+ F D C+ +1 D+ A- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 152 Montana St. W 91 - 76 41% +14  87% 9 - 17 5 - 11 B+ +12 A +11 A+ A+ D C+ +1 C A F
 Sat, Feb 28 208 Weber St. W 78 - 77 52%
 Mon, Mar 2 274 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 81 45%
Totals 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5 C +0 B+ C+ B- D -5 B- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- B- B- C+ 38% 28% 47% B- C+ B- C- C+ C- C B- C+ D D+ F C D 41% 20% 39% C- D C D+ C- D C- F D
1.09 56% 41% 36% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.0 .33 18% .31 74% .23 1.16 61% 49% 34% +3 0 1.09 30% 1.1 .33 15% .33 77% .24
Nov
7		 San Diego C F A B+ D 46% 9% 46% A- C- B+ F C- B+ C F D C+ A F F B- 49% 16% 35% F C+ D- A C+ D+ D+ B- C-
1.12 48% 50% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 16% .36 63% .22 1.07 46% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.8 .26 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
9		 San Diego St. C A- F C B+ 40% 12% 49% A- A- B+ F C- F B- C- C+ C- F B- D+ F 46% 20% 35% F F A+ A+ A+ B A C+ A
0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23 1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18
Nov
15		 Seattle A+ D+ F A+ B 49% 9% 42% A B+ A+ B- A+ C B- B B F D F F F 43% 14% 43% D+ F D F F B- B F C+
1.19 50% 25% 42% 0 +2 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .32 75% .24 1.33 63% 83% 53% +20 +1 1.45 29% 1.5 .43 19% .26 77% .20
Nov
18		 Santa Clara F+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 15% 55% C- C- F+ F F F B+ C B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 47% 6% 47% F A+ F+ A+ B D- F B F
0.86 75% 17% 27% -4 0 0.95 23% 0.7 .16 25% .37 72% .27 1.00 39% 67% 17% -19 +2 0.69 43% 0.8 .36 12% .36 70% .25
Nov
26		 Sam Houston St. B- A+ A+ C+ A 34% 11% 55% B+ A B- F F F A+ A A+ C- A- F C C+ 38% 19% 43% C C+ F D+ F C+ F F+ F
1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58 1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37
Nov
28		 Cal St. Northridge C F A+ C B 25% 22% 53% D B- C- A+ A D C+ B B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 21% 26% 53% A+ A+ B- B+ B B C- F D-
1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24 0.66 25% 13% 20% -25 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25
Dec
3		 UMKC C A+ F F D- 37% 11% 52% C+ D A- C- B D- C- B C D+ C- F A+ D- 43% 26% 31% D+ D- D+ B C+ B F F F
1.12 76% 20% 25% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.0 .45 20% .25 75% .18 0.97 56% 55% 23% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .23 21% .34 75% .25
Dec
6		 Denver A F A+ A+ A- 38% 8% 55% B A- B C+ B A D+ A C D+ C- F A- C+ 40% 23% 36% F+ C D F F C+ F B- F
1.38 45% 50% 52% +11 +2 1.26 39% 1.2 .45 9% .29 78% .23 1.18 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.4 .47 15% .47 74% .35
Dec
10		 Utah Valley C F A+ A- C+ 45% 10% 45% A- B- D- F F B- D+ C- D+ B F D- A+ C 44% 16% 40% B C D- A+ B+ A D F F
1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22 1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27
Dec
21		 UC Davis A- C A+ A+ A+ 35% 8% 58% B- A+ B+ D+ C+ B A+ B- A+ F F F A+ F 45% 25% 29% C F C+ F D- F D F F
1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46 1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35
Jan
1		 Sacramento St. C+ F C+ A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C- B+ D- B D+ A- B+ D+ B C A+ F B+ B- 37% 31% 31% B- B- C+ F D- C- F B+ F
1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27 1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -2 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39
Jan
3		 Portland St. A- B- B- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B A+ B F D+ A A+ F B+ F F F C- F 45% 17% 38% C- F A A+ A+ F F F F
1.18 61% 40% 41% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31 1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33
Jan
8		 Northern Colorado C+ B C- F D 53% 17% 30% B- D+ B+ F C D- A D+ A- F F F F F 27% 10% 63% C- F B B- B F D+ C D+
1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31 1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Northern Arizona B A A+ C A 41% 20% 39% D+ A- A+ D A- F A+ A A+ F C+ B- A+ B+ 60% 14% 26% F B- F F F C+ F F F
1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34 1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38
Jan
15		 Idaho C+ F A+ A+ A 39% 25% 36% C+ A C- F F B- A A- A+ B- D- F A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% D+ A+ B+ F F D- F A F
1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35 1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35
Jan
17		 Eastern Washington F F A+ F F 41% 13% 46% C+ F C+ A- B A B- A+ A F B+ F F F 38% 33% 29% A F A- A+ A+ C- F F F
0.98 42% 67% 19% -13 +1 0.78 33% 1.3 .42 12% .35 90% .32 1.24 50% 50% 67% +15 -2 1.29 24% 0.3 .08 18% .61 82% .50
Jan
22		 Montana St. D C- D- F D- 44% 7% 49% A- D+ C A+ B+ B- A- F C D A D F C+ 35% 22% 43% D C F D- F F A B A
0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21 1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12
Jan
24		 Montana F F F+ D+ F 31% 21% 48% C- F C- A+ B- F C- D D+ B- D+ D B C+ 46% 13% 41% F+ C A- A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18 1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14
Jan
31		 Weber St. B- C A+ A+ A 47% 12% 41% B A F F F C F+ A- D+ D A C- F D+ 40% 22% 38% A- C- D- D F+ C C- F D-
1.17 63% 67% 43% +11 +2 1.27 19% 0.4 .08 16% .27 80% .21 1.20 45% 36% 47% +2 0 1.06 36% 1.1 .39 16% .36 80% .28
Feb
2		 Portland St. B- C+ F D+ D+ 51% 14% 35% A- C- A+ C+ A+ F A+ C- A+ F B- F F F 54% 20% 26% D+ F C F F F D+ F D-
1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43 1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Northern Arizona C+ A- D- D+ C+ 52% 7% 41% A- B- F A+ B A C+ C+ C+ F F F F F 38% 21% 40% C- F A+ F A F C F+ D+
1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23 1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20
Feb
7		 Northern Colorado F F F C- F 44% 19% 37% C F D+ A+ B- B- D- F F C D+ D+ C- C- 41% 24% 35% B C- B+ F F+ B+ A F B
0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19 1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14
Feb
12		 Eastern Washington C+ A- F F D 39% 15% 46% C D A+ C- A- F+ A+ B A+ F F D C+ F 45% 18% 37% D F A+ F B- F F F F
1.14 69% 33% 26% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.1 .48 20% .57 80% .45 1.34 77% 44% 33% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.4 .30 9% .43 92% .40
Feb
14		 Idaho D- F C F F 30% 23% 46% C F C A B C+ D- A+ C F F F F F 44% 9% 46% F F F+ F F C C- B+ C+
0.95 35% 38% 27% -12 -1 0.77 26% 1.3 .33 14% .29 89% .26 1.36 71% 60% 48% +17 +2 1.41 34% 1.3 .45 17% .30 67% .20
Feb
19		 Montana C- D- A+ A B 49% 16% 35% A- B+ C F F D C+ A+ B+ C+ A- D+ F D- 28% 28% 44% A+ D+ B A+ A- C+ F B F
1.08 52% 63% 39% +3 +1 1.12 29% 0.6 .18 18% .30 82% .25 1.02 50% 42% 47% +8 -2 1.14 18% 0.8 .14 21% .41 73% .30
Feb
21		 Montana St. A A+ F B A+ 49% 9% 42% A- A+ B A+ A+ D B- A+ A- C+ C+ B- D- C 37% 27% 37% C- C A+ B- A F F D F
1.26 81% 20% 36% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.7 .60 18% .29 88% .25 1.05 56% 38% 39% +2 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 11% .42 78% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 43.6 24.0 67.6 8th
9th 25.8 5.3 31.1 9th
10th 1.3 1.3 10th
Total 27.1 48.9 24.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 24.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 23.4
6-12 48.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 47.8
5-13 27.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.6 26.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 16.0 4.5 95.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 9.9%