Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #211
Pace 63.3 #326
Improvement -3.6 #332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #122 B+ C D+ B- B-
Defense #299 D+ C- D+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.16 #175 -0.8 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #303 0.87 #52 -1.4 #247
Three Pointers 48% #46 1.14 #35 +6.8 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #56 +4.6 #58
Freethrows 19.7 #75 71% #231 14.0 #100
Second Chance 34.3% #80 0.90 #329 0.31 #192
Turnovers 17.7% #250
Total Offense +1.9 #122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #104 1.21 #248 -2.7 #271
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #240 1.02 #365 -1.5 #286
Three Pointers 40% #207 0.93 #74 +2.1 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #256 -2.1 #254
Freethrows 19.2 #275 76% #322 14.7 #56
Second Chance 32.2% #247 1.05 #194 0.34 #233
Turnovers 15.3% #253
Total Defense -4.1 #299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #98 1.0% #261
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.6% #69 3.3% #248
Possession Length 20.0 #360 16.9 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #340 0.18 #191
Improvement +1.7 #84 -5.3 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 10.4% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 39.7% 49.7% 24.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.4% 74.4% 46.5%
Conference Champion 5.7% 8.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.1% 4.0%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.5%
First Round8.6% 10.0% 6.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 411 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 222 @San Diego W 71 - 68 43% +7  1 - 0 +3 +6 C D A+ -3 C- B D+
 Sun, Nov 9 52 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 8% -11  1 - 1 -3 -0 A D F -4 F A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 121 @Seattle L 74 - 83 23% -9  1 - 2 -4 +17 A- A+ C -22 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 55 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 9% -5  1 - 3 +4 -8 C F F +11 A+ A F
 Wed, Nov 26 141 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 37% -1  1 - 4 -2 +5 A+ F F -7 C- F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 216 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 53% +18  2 - 4 +29 +1 C+ A+ F +25 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 346 @UMKC W 68 - 59 74% +0  3 - 4 +0 +3 D- A F -2 D C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 280 Denver W 93 - 79 76% +6  4 - 4 +4 +14 A C A+ -9 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 101 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 17% +1  4 - 5 +4 +3 B F C +1 B- C+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 188 UC Davis L 83 - 93 60% -8  4 - 6 -15 +12 A+ C+ C -27 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 307 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 81% +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +1 +6 A+ F B+ -6 D- D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 145 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 50% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -8 +11 A+ D- A+ -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 174 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 34% -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -11 +4 D+ C D- -16 F A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 296 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 60% +2  6 - 8 2 - 2 -3 +13 A+ A+ F -16 C F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 194 Idaho W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Jan 17 255 Eastern Washington W 79 - 73 72%
 Thu, Jan 22 161 @Montana St. L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 186 @Montana L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 197 @Weber St. L 74 - 77 38%
 Mon, Feb 2 145 @Portland St. L 69 - 75 28%
 Thu, Feb 5 296 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 174 Northern Colorado W 77 - 75 57%
 Thu, Feb 12 255 @Eastern Washington W 77 - 76 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 194 @Idaho L 73 - 76 39%
 Thu, Feb 19 186 Montana W 76 - 74 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 161 Montana St. W 72 - 71 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 197 Weber St. W 77 - 74 61%
 Mon, Mar 2 307 @Sacramento St. W 80 - 77 62%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 9 -2 +2 B+ C D+ -4 D+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.2 6.4 2.6 0.3 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 7.9 3.3 0.2 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 7.1 4.8 0.4 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 6.5 5.9 0.8 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.5 5.6 1.2 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.7 0.9 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1 6.2 11.1 14.8 17.0 17.0 13.3 9.1 4.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 93.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-4 72.1% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 48.0% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 15.5% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.6% 34.8% 34.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.8% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3
13-5 4.5% 21.9% 21.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 3.6
12-6 9.1% 16.1% 16.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 7.7
11-7 13.3% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 11.7
10-8 17.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.1 0.1 1.4 0.3 15.2
9-9 17.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.5 0.7 15.7
8-10 14.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.6 14.2
7-11 11.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 10.8
6-12 6.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 6.0
5-13 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.0
4-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 14.9 91.0 0.0%