Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#166
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#169
Pace78.9#22
Improvement+0.8#113

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#229
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#356
Layup/Dunks+7.7#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#233
Freethrows-1.7#290
Improvement+0.9#94

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#136
First Shot+2.9#85
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#295
Layups/Dunks-1.0#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#104
Freethrows+4.0#11
Improvement-0.1#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.4% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 43.0% 47.1% 24.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.6% 40.9% 27.5%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 7.8% 13.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.1% 3.4% 1.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Neutral) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 86 - 14
Quad 48 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 196 @Charlotte L 76-92 43%     0 - 1 -15.3 +2.1 -17.6
  Mon, Nov 10 204 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 46%     1 - 1 +9.1 -7.2 +16.2
  Fri, Nov 14 2 @Duke L 62-100 2%     1 - 2 -12.2 -3.7 -5.2
  Wed, Nov 19 194 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 66%     2 - 2 +3.9 -12.9 +16.6
  Sat, Nov 22 277 Ball St. W 70-52 79%     3 - 2 +8.7 -1.1 +11.2
  Wed, Nov 26 194 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 43%     3 - 3 -1.1 +7.1 -8.3
  Fri, Nov 28 338 Alcorn St. W 81-71 82%    
  Sun, Dec 7 314 Southern Indiana W 84-74 83%    
  Sun, Dec 14 208 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-79 47%    
  Thu, Dec 18 112 Bradley L 75-76 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 102 @Illinois St. L 71-80 21%    
  Mon, Dec 29 94 Belmont L 76-80 36%    
  Thu, Jan 1 90 @Northern Iowa L 64-74 18%    
  Sun, Jan 4 143 @Drake L 68-73 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 291 Evansville W 78-69 80%    
  Wed, Jan 14 102 Illinois St. L 74-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 118 @Murray St. L 80-87 26%    
  Wed, Jan 21 112 @Bradley L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 143 Drake W 71-70 55%    
  Tue, Jan 27 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 268 Valparaiso W 77-69 75%    
  Tue, Feb 3 291 @Evansville W 75-72 61%    
  Mon, Feb 9 142 Southern Illinois W 77-76 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 118 Murray St. L 83-84 46%    
  Sun, Feb 15 268 @Valparaiso W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 90 Northern Iowa L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 94 @Belmont L 73-83 20%    
  Wed, Feb 25 142 @Southern Illinois L 74-79 33%    
  Sun, Mar 1 174 Illinois-Chicago W 80-77 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 4.5 5.4 2.0 0.3 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 5.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.2 4.2 1.5 0.2 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.7 7.2 9.8 11.2 12.5 12.2 11.1 9.8 7.1 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 92.7% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-4 74.9% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 52.8% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 19.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 14.7% 8.8% 5.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5%
17-3 0.3% 36.6% 36.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.8% 13.4% 13.4% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.7% 19.2% 19.2% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-6 3.0% 10.0% 10.0% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7
13-7 4.7% 10.4% 10.4% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.2
12-8 7.1% 6.4% 6.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
11-9 9.8% 5.1% 5.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.3
10-10 11.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.7
9-11 12.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0
8-12 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4
7-13 11.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.2
6-14 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.8
5-15 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-16 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 96.8 0.0%