Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #207
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #232
Pace 73.3 #72
Improvement +1.6 #98

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #239 C D- C- D- A+
Defense #170 C C- C- A C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #43 1.24 #93 +5.3 #30
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #355 0.71 #232 -4.7 #356
Three Pointers 47% #73 0.88 #324 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #169 +0.4 #171
Freethrows 14.1 #329 72% #189 10.2 #315
Second Chance 23.6% #344 1.01 #237 0.24 #333
Turnovers 17.6% #245
Total Offense -2.6 #239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #77 1.09 #92 -0.7 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #75 0.94 #357 -3.8 #358
Three Pointers 33% #346 0.93 #82 +5.2 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #150 +0.8 #157
Freethrows 12.2 #10 75% #294 9.2 #347
Second Chance 32.7% #265 1.05 #199 0.34 #247
Turnovers 15.6% #237
Total Defense -0.2 #170

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #10 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #216 -1.5% #155
Possession Length 17.1 #154 16.8 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #171 0.18 #212
Improvement +2.9 #34 -1.3 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 5.0% 11.1% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 3.9% 9.3% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.6% 17.5% 35.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 28.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 46 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 32% -9  0 - 1 -14 +3 C D C -17 F F F
 Mon, Nov 10 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 54% +6  1 - 1 +5 -9 F D F +14 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 7 @Duke L 62 - 100 2% -19  1 - 2 -14 -5 C D- F -6 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 234 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 66% +5  2 - 2 +2 -14 F F C +16 A+ C+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 303 Ball St. W 70 - 52 79% +2  3 - 2 +7 -3 C F D +11 A+ C A
 Wed, Nov 26 234 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 43% -1  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F B -9 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 347 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 81% -11  3 - 4 -19 -13 F D+ F -5 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 343 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 86% +11  4 - 4 +8 +4 B F B- +5 C A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 42% +1  5 - 4 +1 -0 A+ C F +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 114 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 37% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -8 +0 C F A+ -6 B D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 91 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 13% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 -0 B+ F C -11 D- A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 79 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 25% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +5 +2 A D+ C- +3 A+ B B
 Thu, Jan 1 107 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 17% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +6 A+ F C -9 D+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 165 @Drake L 72 - 74 31% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +0 +8 C A+ F -8 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 251 Evansville L 69 - 72 70% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -11 -7 F C B+ -4 F A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 91 Illinois St. L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Murray St. L 76 - 88 12%
 Wed, Jan 21 114 @Bradley L 70 - 80 19%
 Sat, Jan 24 165 Drake W 73 - 72 53%
 Tue, Jan 27 160 @Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 184 Valparaiso W 73 - 71 57%
 Tue, Feb 3 251 @Evansville L 71 - 72 48%
 Mon, Feb 9 126 Southern Illinois L 74 - 76 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 89 Murray St. L 79 - 85 28%
 Sun, Feb 15 184 @Valparaiso L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 107 Northern Iowa L 63 - 67 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 79 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 126 @Southern Illinois L 71 - 79 24%
 Sun, Mar 1 160 Illinois-Chicago W 73 - 72 51%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 14 -3 -3 C D- C- +0 C C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.9 6.6 1.2 0.1 21.3 9th
10th 0.5 2.8 8.3 12.3 7.2 1.6 0.1 32.5 10th
11th 0.8 3.3 6.3 5.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 18.6 11th
Total 0.8 3.7 9.0 14.5 18.5 18.4 15.3 10.0 5.8 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.3% 4.9% 4.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 2.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-11 5.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
8-12 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 10.0
7-13 15.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 15.2
6-14 18.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 18.3
5-15 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.4
4-16 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-17 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%