Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #220
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #230
Pace 64.1 #314
Improvement +0.8 #142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #308 F C C F F
Defense #110 C C B D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 0.93 #362 -7.4 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #9 0.75 #175 +4.9 #15
Three Pointers 34% #313 0.97 #233 -4.2 #310
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #344 -6.6 #345
Freethrows 12.8 #346 70% #261 8.9 #351
Second Chance 32.8% #123 1.02 #210 0.33 #143
Turnovers 16.9% #199
Total Offense -5.0 #308

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.18 #212 -0.6 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.65 #46 +1.2 #99
Three Pointers 41% #177 1.07 #261 -1.3 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.6 #201
Freethrows 21.5 #340 68% #35 14.7 #53
Second Chance 32.2% #245 1.00 #118 0.32 #180
Turnovers 18.7% #66
Total Defense +1.8 #110

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #359 0.2% #182
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #318 1.1% #205
Possession Length 18.0 #241 18.2 #314
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #147 0.18 #207
Improvement +0.2 #170 +0.6 #145

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.9% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 14.9
.500 or above 39.5% 57.2% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 72.2% 43.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.8% 2.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 45 @TCU L 65 - 78 6% -2  0 - 1 +2 +7 C+ C A+ -6 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 76% +9  1 - 1 +3 -2 F F B+ +4 B D B
 Sun, Nov 23 186 @Montana W 68 - 63 33% +0  2 - 1 +6 -6 F A F +13 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 135 Oakland L 68 - 83 33% -4  2 - 2 -14 -10 F A F -3 B F A-
 Wed, Dec 3 315 Louisiana W 65 - 55 80% -2  3 - 2 -2 -2 D- D- A+ +1 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 55% -1  3 - 3 0 - 1 -13 -15 F D C+ +1 D+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 10 52 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 7% -10  3 - 4 -5 +0 B D- F -3 C- B C
 Tue, Dec 16 235 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 65% -12  3 - 5 0 - 2 -18 -3 C+ F D+ -15 F A- D-
 Sat, Dec 20 258 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 70% -7  3 - 6 -11 -1 F A+ D+ -10 F D- B
 Mon, Dec 29 276 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 52% +12  4 - 6 1 - 2 +11 +5 A- D D- +7 B+ B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 321 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 63% -0  5 - 6 2 - 2 +0 -0 F A+ A+ +1 A F A
 Fri, Jan 2 80 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 11% -4  5 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +13 F A+ A+ -16 F D- C
 Mon, Jan 5 266 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 49% -9  5 - 8 2 - 4 -11 -11 F B- D+ -2 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 187 Incarnate Word W 63 - 51 56% +5  6 - 8 3 - 4 +7 -3 D D- F +12 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 12 301 Houston Christian W 64 - 56 77% -1  7 - 8 4 - 4 -3 -8 D+ F F +5 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 205 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 71 37%
 Mon, Jan 19 245 @New Orleans L 72 - 73 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 108 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 66 34%
 Mon, Jan 26 321 East Texas A&M W 71 - 62 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 80 McNeese St. L 64 - 71 24%
 Mon, Feb 2 266 SE Louisiana W 67 - 61 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 59 - 69 17%
 Mon, Feb 9 276 Northwestern St. W 70 - 64 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 62 - 67 33%
 Mon, Feb 16 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 68 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 245 New Orleans W 75 - 70 66%
 Mon, Feb 23 205 Nicholls St. W 70 - 68 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 @Incarnate Word L 63 - 68 34%
 Mon, Mar 2 301 @Houston Christian W 67 - 65 57%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 11 -3 -5 F C C +2 C C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.0 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 7.8 7.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 7.4 7.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.2 1.7 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.0 5.5 1.5 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.3 8.3 14.3 17.4 18.4 15.5 10.9 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0
17-5 34.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.7% 9.2% 9.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-7 2.4% 10.7% 10.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
14-8 5.9% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
13-9 10.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.5
12-10 15.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 15.1
11-11 18.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.2
10-12 17.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 17.3
9-13 14.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.2
8-14 8.3% 8.3
7-15 4.3% 4.3
6-16 1.5% 1.5
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.8 98.1 0.0%