Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #106
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #179
Pace 73.8 #59
Improvement +0.3 #166

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #140 C C- A- C+ A+
Defense #77 C+ C+ A- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.10 #258 +4.1 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #363 0.66 #300 -5.4 #363
Three Pointers 45% #115 0.94 #265 +0.3 #169
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #201 -1.0 #201
Freethrows 19.2 #98 69% #284 13.2 #144
Second Chance 32.6% #127 0.93 #307 0.30 #212
Turnovers 13.7% #32
Total Offense +0.8 #140

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.15 #168 -0.9 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.69 #96 +0.7 #141
Three Pointers 40% #226 0.97 #122 +1.6 #121
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #131 +1.4 #130
Freethrows 14.5 #47 76% #318 11.0 #283
Second Chance 29.3% #125 1.03 #165 0.30 #139
Turnovers 19.7% #38
Total Defense +3.7 #77

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.9% #2 0.4% #198
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #282 -3.2% #126
Possession Length 14.9 #22 18.7 #347
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.15 #105
Improvement -0.5 #218 +0.8 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.3 15.1
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 2.7% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.9% 28.8% 57.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 74 - 19
Quad 32 - 36 - 22
Quad 45 - 010 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 309 Albany W 80 - 53 93% +13  1 - 0 +15 -7 C- F F +20 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 5 263 Southern W 100 - 82 89% +9  2 - 0 +9 +13 B+ C+ A+ -6 D- C C
 Sun, Nov 9 31 Indiana L 77 - 100 18% -12  2 - 1 -9 +4 F A+ D -11 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 90% +18  3 - 1 +30 +16 A F A+ +16 A A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 112 Maryland L 82 - 89 64% -3  3 - 2 -6 +3 F A+ A- -9 F B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 70 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 48% -5  3 - 3 -1 -6 D- D+ D+ +6 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 325 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 94% +5  4 - 3 +1 +4 A F A- -3 C A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 54 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 29% +4  4 - 4 +9 +11 B+ F A+ -2 C- D+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 184 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 80% -2  5 - 4 -2 -6 F F C- +4 D- C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 39 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 14% -12  5 - 5 -4 +2 B+ F A+ -4 D A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 3 @Purdue L 59 - 79 4% -16  5 - 6 +5 -0 F A+ D +4 C D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 100 Georgetown L 69 - 78 59% -2  5 - 7 0 - 1 -7 +2 F A A+ -10 C F B
 Sat, Dec 20 43 @Creighton L 63 - 84 16% -14  5 - 8 0 - 2 -6 -10 F F C +6 B- B- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 49 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 37% +2  5 - 9 0 - 3 +2 +7 D B A+ -5 A+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 4 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 4% -11  5 - 10 0 - 4 +8 -2 D+ C- A- +10 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 92 Xavier W 66 - 65 55% +5  6 - 10 1 - 4 +4 -5 F A+ F +9 B A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 34 Villanova L 73 - 76 26% -3  6 - 11 1 - 5 +8 +12 A+ D+ A+ -4 D C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 15 @St. John's L 68 - 92 8% -9  6 - 12 1 - 6 -4 +1 A+ F F -3 C C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 16 98 @DePaul L 69 - 73 37%
 Mon, Jan 19 68 Providence L 83 - 84 48%
 Fri, Jan 23 58 @Butler L 75 - 83 24%
 Tue, Jan 27 43 Creighton L 73 - 78 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 49 @Seton Hall L 64 - 73 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 58 Butler L 78 - 80 43%
 Tue, Feb 10 34 @Villanova L 65 - 78 12%
 Sat, Feb 14 92 @Xavier L 74 - 79 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 15 St. John's L 73 - 83 18%
 Tue, Feb 24 100 @Georgetown L 74 - 78 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 98 DePaul W 72 - 70 58%
 Wed, Mar 4 68 @Providence L 80 - 87 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 4 Connecticut L 65 - 79 10%
Totals 10 - 21 5 - 15 +4 +1 C C- A- +4 C+ C+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.3 4.7 0.9 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 7.1 7.3 1.6 0.0 17.6 9th
10th 0.3 2.8 9.3 9.5 2.4 0.1 24.4 10th
11th 1.6 6.4 11.1 9.1 2.6 0.1 30.9 11th
Total 1.6 6.7 13.9 19.8 20.5 17.1 11.0 5.8 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 1.0% 2.6% 2.1% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5%
9-11 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-13 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 10.9
6-14 17.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 17.1
5-15 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 20.5
4-16 19.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.8
3-17 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-18 6.7% 6.7
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%