Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #161
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 #198
Pace 65.2 #287
Improvement -1.5 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #150 C+ C C+ F D+
Defense #184 B- D+ D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.14 #207 -4.8 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.96 #15 +2.8 #56
Three Pointers 47% #66 1.01 #182 +3.1 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #149 +1.2 #149
Freethrows 13.8 #334 71% #242 9.7 #329
Second Chance 30.0% #210 1.06 #173 0.32 #172
Turnovers 16.1% #143
Total Offense +0.3 #150

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.13 #137 -2.0 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #117 0.78 #213 -0.9 #247
Three Pointers 35% #332 0.86 #28 +5.9 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #83 +3.0 #82
Freethrows 17.0 #171 76% #325 12.9 #158
Second Chance 31.1% #201 1.14 #297 0.36 #268
Turnovers 15.1% #272
Total Defense -0.5 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #280 0.3% #192
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #126 -6.2% #70
Possession Length 18.8 #325 17.1 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #299 0.15 #95
Improvement +1.5 #96 -3.0 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 19.5% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 60.6% 69.9% 42.7%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 95.1% 81.9%
Conference Champion 25.0% 31.9% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round17.3% 19.3% 13.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 55 - 10
Quad 410 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 73 @Colorado L 78 - 84 15% -1  0 - 1 +5 +10 A+ F C -5 C+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 9 280 Denver L 73 - 75 82% +2  0 - 2 -12 -3 F B- C+ -9 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 77 @Stanford L 68 - 77 16% -4  0 - 3 +1 -3 B D+ D- +5 A+ C C+
 Sat, Nov 15 78 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 16% -2  0 - 4 +6 -2 C F B +8 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 264 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 60% +3  1 - 4 +3 +5 D B- A+ -1 C C+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 28 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 6% -3  1 - 5 +15 +8 B D+ C+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 128 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 54% +1  2 - 5 +7 +10 C+ C- A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 298 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 68% +6  2 - 6 -9 -1 B- F F -9 B D C
 Sat, Dec 13 189 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 44% -4  2 - 7 -9 -11 F A- D- +1 A+ F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 249 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 57% +3  3 - 7 +1 +8 D- A+ A+ -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 174 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 64% +6  4 - 7 1 - 0 +10 +11 B+ A+ B -1 A F B
 Sat, Jan 3 296 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 84% +7  5 - 7 2 - 0 -2 +7 B+ C+ A -8 D- C F
 Thu, Jan 8 255 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 59% -0  6 - 7 3 - 0 +2 -2 D D+ F +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 194 @Idaho L 89 - 92 46% +9  6 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +17 A+ C F -19 F A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 186 Montana W 76 - 72 66%
 Mon, Jan 19 174 @Northern Colorado L 73 - 75 42%
 Thu, Jan 22 196 Idaho St. W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Jan 24 197 Weber St. W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Jan 29 307 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 145 @Portland St. L 69 - 73 35%
 Thu, Feb 5 194 Idaho W 75 - 70 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 255 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 186 @Montana L 73 - 75 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 197 @Weber St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 @Idaho St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Thu, Feb 26 145 Portland St. W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 307 Sacramento St. W 82 - 71 85%
 Mon, Mar 2 296 @Northern Arizona W 73 - 68 66%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 7 +0 +0 C+ C C+ -1 B- D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.9 7.7 4.8 1.9 0.3 25.0 1st
2nd 0.4 4.0 9.4 6.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 8.4 4.6 0.7 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 6.5 4.0 0.5 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.4 2.5 3.1 0.5 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.8 5.5 10.2 14.3 17.1 17.4 14.5 9.7 5.1 1.9 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 99.5% 1.9    1.9 0.1
15-3 93.9% 4.8    4.3 0.5
14-4 78.8% 7.7    5.3 2.2 0.1
13-5 47.8% 6.9    3.0 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.0% 3.0    0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 15.3 7.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 48.3% 48.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.9% 41.7% 41.7% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 5.1% 34.4% 34.4% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 3.3
14-4 9.7% 29.5% 29.5% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.4 6.9
13-5 14.5% 24.0% 24.0% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.0 11.0
12-6 17.4% 17.4% 17.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.1 14.4
11-7 17.1% 14.9% 14.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.3 14.6
10-8 14.3% 12.6% 12.6% 15.5 0.0 0.9 0.9 12.5
9-9 10.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.9 0.1 0.7 9.4
8-10 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 5.3
7-11 2.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 14.4 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.1 10.3 72.4 17.2