Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +0.4 152
Results Rating -0.7 171
Consistency 0.11 17
Pace 65.7 260
Improvement -1.3 239

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 162 C+ C- C+ D D
Defense C 161 C+ C- C- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 352 D+ 55% 258 -6.0 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 174 B+ 44% 41 +2.9 47
Three Pointers 46% 83 B 37% 65 +4.4 47
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 316 B- +2.4 93
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 134
Second Chance D+ 27.3% 264 C+ 1.05 148 C- 0.29 235
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 117
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 140
Turnovers C+ 15.7% 113
Freethrows D 0.26 322 C+ 74% 126 D 0.19 291
Total Offense C +0.1 162

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 348 D+ 12.5% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 355 C+ 4.8% 170
Three Pointers D- 75% 341 C+ 0.7% 143
Total F+ 44% 357 C+ 5.2% 135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 22 B- 55% 103 +2.7 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 180 D+ 41% 281 +0.5 225
Three Pointers 34% 345 B- 32% 94 -4.4 25
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 265 C+ -1.6 114
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 137
Second Chance C 30.4% 186 D+ 1.09 266 C- 0.33 236
Turnovers from Steals C 9.8% 157
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 316
Turnovers C- 16.0% 226
Freethrows B 0.26 60 D- 76% 346 B- 0.20 106
Total Defense C +0.3 161

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 22 D+ 8.1% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 258 D 2.7% 305
Three Pointers B 79% 56 C+ 1.2% 106
Total B+ 47% 24 D+ 4.6% 249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 312 16.9 115
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 229 0.16 159
Consistency 0.10 41 0.10 48
Improvement +0.4 170 -1.8 278

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 171 151 130
Results Rating Rank 192 171 113
Conference Record 10 - 8 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 20% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.9
.500 or above 80% 88% 45%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 12% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round19% 20% 17%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 48 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Colorado L 78 - 84 14% -1  39% 0 - 1 B- +6 B+ +9 A+ D- C+ C- -3 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Nov 9 243 Denver L 73 - 75 78% +2  67% 0 - 2 D -10 D -6 D- B+ C+ D+ -4 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 75 @Stanford L 68 - 77 16% -4  17% 0 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 B- D+ D A- +8 A C- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 68 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 14% -2  30% 0 - 4 B- +8 D- -6 C- F B- A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 265 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 62% +3  88% 1 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ C+ A- C+ +1 C C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 33 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 7% -3  8% 1 - 5 B+ +14 B- +5 B- C- C+ A +10 A A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 115 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 51% +1  57% 2 - 5 B +8 B+ +8 C+ C A+ C+ +1 D A A+
 Sat, Dec 6 325 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 77% +6  81% 2 - 6 D- -11 D+ -4 B- F+ F D- -8 B- D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 155 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 40% -4  4% 2 - 7 D+ -7 F -12 F B D- B +4 A+ F C
 Tue, Dec 16 222 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 53% +3  67% 3 - 7 C+ +3 B- +4 F+ A A C -1 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 168 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 66% +6  90% 4 - 7 1 - 0 B +10 B+ +8 B A+ B C+ +2 A- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 310 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 87% +7  78% 5 - 7 2 - 0 C- -3 C+ +2 B- C A- D+ -3 C- C- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 178 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 45% -0  41% 6 - 7 3 - 0 B- +6 D+ -3 C C- F A +9 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 179 @Idaho L 89 - 92 45% +9  90% 6 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 A+ +17 A+ C D- F -18 F B F
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Montana W 76 - 67 70% +0  51% 7 - 8 4 - 1 C+ +4 C- -2 C- C- B- B+ +6 B A C+
 Mon, Jan 19 168 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 43% +4  71% 8 - 8 5 - 1 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B- B +5 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 249 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 78% +5  85% 9 - 8 6 - 1 C+ +4 C +1 D+ B A B +5 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 208 Weber St. W 91 - 88 72% +2  63% 10 - 8 7 - 1 C- -3 A- +10 A+ B- C- F -12 F B F
 Thu, Jan 29 274 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 83 65% -3  22% 10 - 9 7 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 C- D+ D+ D -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 158 @Portland St. L 54 - 63 40% -3  23% 10 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -8 F B- D- C+ +1 F A+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 179 Idaho W 73 - 66 67% +9  89% 11 - 10 8 - 3 C+ +3 D- -7 F C+ B A +10 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 178 Eastern Washington L 71 - 72 67% -2  25% 11 - 11 8 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- F A+ C- -2 B F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 192 @Montana W 82 - 71 47% +3  66% 12 - 11 9 - 4 B+ +12 A +13 A F A+ C -0 C+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 208 @Weber St. L 79 - 82 OT 50% +0  40% 12 - 12 9 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 B- F C- C -1 C C- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 249 @Idaho St. L 76 - 91 59% -14  11% 12 - 13 9 - 6 F+ -17 D -6 D+ F A- F -11 F F C
 Thu, Feb 26 158 Portland St. W 84 - 69 63% +11  98% 13 - 13 10 - 6 B+ +12 A- +11 A+ A+ B+ C+ +1 B- F B
 Sat, Feb 28 274 Sacramento St. W 84 - 74 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 310 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 68 72%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 6 +0 C +0 C B- D C +0 B C+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ B+ B B- 30% 38% 46% D C+ D+ C+ C- C+ D C+ D C B- D+ B- C+ 45% 20% 34% D+ C+ C D+ C- C- B D- B-
1.09 55% 44% 37% +2 -1 1.05 27% 1.1 .29 16% .26 74% .19 1.08 55% 41% 32% -2 +1 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 16% .26 76% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado B+ B A+ B- A+ 40% 27% 33% C A+ D F D- C+ C B+ C+ C- D+ F A+ B- 58% 20% 22% D- C+ D C+ C- C- F A- F
1.13 62% 64% 35% +9 -1 1.19 21% 0.8 .18 16% .29 76% .22 1.22 65% 56% 20% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.9 .32 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
9		 Denver D B B+ F D- 34% 17% 49% C- D- D A+ B+ C+ F C+ F D+ F+ C+ F F 59% 27% 14% F F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.14 67% 44% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.7 .48 12% .12 71% .09 1.17 66% 38% 57% +9 +1 1.22 38% 1.3 .50 22% .20 60% .12
Nov
12		 Stanford D D A+ C- B 30% 28% 42% D B- F A+ D+ D F F F A- C A+ A+ A 48% 17% 35% B- A A+ F C- C+ C- D C-
0.91 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 21% .22 54% .12 1.03 58% 22% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.4 .36 16% .34 76% .26
Nov
15		 Boise St. D- D+ D+ B+ C+ 25% 36% 40% F C- B- F F B- D- F F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 27% 16% 58% B+ A+ A+ B- A+ D- D F F
0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11 0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36
Nov
21		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D+ C 32% 32% 36% F D+ D- A+ C+ A- D+ C- D C+ D- C+ D+ D+ 28% 46% 26% A+ C D A- C+ D+ D+ D+ D+
1.13 71% 35% 32% +2 -2 1.02 22% 1.7 .38 13% .32 74% .23 1.04 67% 36% 36% +2 -4 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
29		 Utah St. B- F+ A C+ B- 22% 22% 55% D+ B- C+ D- C- C+ D+ A+ B A A+ F C- A+ 54% 7% 39% F+ A A+ F+ A D+ F+ B- D
1.05 46% 46% 34% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26 1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27
Dec
3		 St. Thomas B+ F C A+ B- 27% 17% 56% D C+ D+ B+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F B- B D- 38% 6% 56% C- D B- A+ A A+ C C C
1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36 1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20
Dec
6		 Oral Roberts D+ A- A D B- 37% 12% 51% C- B- A- F F+ F F+ C- D- D- B- C- A+ B 51% 21% 28% C- B- F A D- C F F F
1.06 67% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 40% 0.6 .26 22% .26 69% .18 1.12 50% 40% 23% -8 +1 0.87 41% 0.8 .32 19% .50 92% .46
Dec
13		 Oregon St. F F A+ F F 37% 18% 45% C- F D+ A+ B D- D F F B B D A+ A+ 40% 18% 43% D+ A+ A+ F F C F D- F
0.89 28% 56% 27% -12 0 0.78 28% 1.4 .38 17% .28 60% .17 1.04 50% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.78 18% 2.8 .50 17% .53 82% .43
Dec
16		 Cal Poly B- A+ F F F 30% 14% 55% C- F+ C A+ A A A+ D- A- C A+ C- A+ A+ 45% 6% 49% D+ A+ F F F F F A F
1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27 1.11 41% 33% 25% -15 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36
Jan
1		 Northern Colorado B+ C+ A+ D B+ 39% 18% 43% C- B D A+ A+ B D- D F+ C+ B- A+ C+ A 40% 19% 40% C A- D- F F C+ C+ F D
1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20 1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Northern Arizona C+ F A+ A B 29% 13% 58% D+ B- C C C A- D A+ B- D+ C D+ F D- 37% 42% 21% A+ C- D+ C C- F+ A- B A-
1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24 1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Washington D+ C B- B+ B- 31% 28% 41% F C A- F C- F A+ B+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 48% 20% 32% D A+ F+ A+ B+ D- C- F F
1.05 58% 45% 38% +4 -2 1.08 41% 0.8 .33 26% .44 81% .36 0.99 38% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 36% 0.7 .26 15% .31 94% .29
Jan
10		 Idaho A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% B- A+ B+ F C D- B- A B+ F F+ C- F F 44% 14% 42% D F D- A+ B F A- F+ B
1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30 1.35 65% 38% 44% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17
Jan
17		 Montana C- F+ C- A+ C 30% 38% 32% F C- D+ C C- B- A- A- A B+ A+ F D+ A 58% 4% 38% F B A+ B- A C+ B+ F C
1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28 0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23
Jan
19		 Northern Colorado C+ F+ C A+ B 40% 10% 50% B B+ F F F B- B- C C+ B A+ B C+ A+ 51% 16% 33% D- A F B- F C+ A+ A+ A+
1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27 1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02
Jan
22		 Idaho St. C F C+ A C- 35% 22% 43% D+ D+ B B- B A F F F B C+ B+ A A 44% 7% 49% F+ B+ C+ F F+ D- D+ A+ B-
1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12 0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21
Jan
24		 Weber St. A- B A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ A- D B- C- B- A+ A+ F A- F F F 61% 4% 35% F F A C- B F B F C
1.29 67% 56% 46% +14 0 1.31 38% 1.0 .38 17% .36 90% .32 1.25 48% 50% 58% +7 +4 1.24 25% 1.0 .25 11% .30 79% .24
Jan
29		 Sacramento St. C- F A+ A+ C 26% 20% 54% F C- C D- D+ D+ C D C- D D+ F F F 41% 30% 30% C F A+ A+ A+ C A+ C- A+
1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22 1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
31		 Portland St. F+ F A F F+ 24% 37% 39% F F B+ D B- D- F A+ D- C+ D- F F F 44% 23% 33% B- F F+ A+ A+ B+ B+ B- B+
0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23 1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho D- C D- F F+ 35% 44% 21% F F F A+ C+ B A+ A+ A+ A B- F A+ B+ 57% 16% 28% F B- A A+ A+ B+ A+ F A
1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41 0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14
Feb
7		 Eastern Washington D+ F A+ A- C 36% 18% 46% D+ C- F F F A+ C+ F+ C- C- A- B- F B+ 54% 22% 24% D- B F+ F F D+ A+ F A-
1.09 44% 56% 39% +2 0 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 8% .33 70% .23 1.11 48% 36% 42% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 17% .20 82% .17
Feb
14		 Montana A A+ C+ A+ A+ 21% 43% 36% F A F F+ F A+ B+ D B- C D- B B B- 37% 12% 51% D+ C+ B- B- B- F C F D
1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23 1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27
Feb
19		 Weber St. C- A+ B F+ B 34% 26% 40% F+ B- F F F C- D+ B+ C- C D+ D- A C- 46% 30% 25% A C F+ B C- F+ B D+ B-
1.09 83% 43% 29% +7 -1 1.13 19% 0.8 .16 16% .30 78% .23 1.13 62% 41% 29% +1 -1 1.02 37% 0.9 .33 12% .30 74% .22
Feb
21		 Idaho St. D D+ D A- C- 37% 27% 37% D D+ F D F A- A C+ A F F A+ D+ F 49% 9% 42% F+ F D+ F F C B- F D+
1.05 56% 38% 39% +2 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 11% .42 78% .33 1.26 81% 20% 36% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.7 .60 18% .29 88% .25
Feb
26		 Portland St. A- B- C+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% C A+ F A+ A+ B+ F C- F C+ A+ A- F B 50% 15% 35% D B- C- F F B B+ A+ A
1.19 60% 38% 50% +13 0 1.29 14% 3.3 .45 16% .25 73% .19 0.98 29% 29% 53% -6 +2 0.94 32% 1.7 .55 21% .25 57% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 10.1 10.1 1st
2nd 0.3 17.1 49.2 66.6 2nd
3rd 3.2 18.3 21.6 3rd
4th 1.5 1.5 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 5.2 35.5 59.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 17.1% 10.1    4.9 5.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 10.1% 10.1 4.9 5.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 59.4% 20.5% 20.5% 13.8 0.0 0.2 3.6 7.2 1.2 0.0 47.2
11-7 35.5% 17.4% 17.4% 14.7 0.1 1.9 4.1 0.1 29.3
10-8 5.2% 17.9% 17.9% 15.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 4.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 14.1 80.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.2% 100.0% 13.8 0.0 1.3 29.5 59.3 9.8 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.8%
Lose Out 2.2%