Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#186
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#293
Pace65.2#295
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#206
First Shot-1.3#208
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks-0.6#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows-4.8#359
Improvement-0.2#202

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#172
First Shot-1.6#228
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#104
Layups/Dunks-3.0#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#52
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+0.0#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 20.2% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 38.8% 67.1% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.8% 80.1% 64.1%
Conference Champion 14.5% 24.1% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 3.1% 7.5%
First Four2.0% 0.8% 2.1%
First Round11.4% 19.7% 11.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 4.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 72 @Colorado L 78-84 12%     0 - 1 +4.8 +9.1 -4.4
  Sun, Nov 9 300 Denver L 73-75 80%     0 - 2 -12.7 -1.9 -11.0
  Wed, Nov 12 95 @Stanford L 68-77 17%     0 - 3 -0.4 -3.9 +4.0
  Sat, Nov 15 61 @Boise St. L 58-62 10%     0 - 4 +8.3 -0.8 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 21 298 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 61%     1 - 4 +1.4 +4.2 -2.7
  Sat, Nov 29 35 @Utah St. L 64-82 5%    
  Wed, Dec 3 158 St. Thomas W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Dec 6 296 @Oral Roberts W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Dec 13 169 @Oregon St. L 65-69 37%    
  Tue, Dec 16 245 @Cal Poly L 77-78 50%    
  Thu, Jan 1 145 Northern Colorado W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Jan 3 249 Northern Arizona W 74-68 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 240 @Eastern Washington L 73-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 168 @Idaho L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 191 Montana W 75-72 61%    
  Mon, Jan 19 145 @Northern Colorado L 69-74 32%    
  Thu, Jan 22 230 Idaho St. W 69-64 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 229 Weber St. W 75-70 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 272 @Sacramento St. W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 156 @Portland St. L 68-73 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 168 Idaho W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 240 Eastern Washington W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 191 @Montana L 72-75 40%    
  Thu, Feb 19 229 @Weber St. L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 230 @Idaho St. L 66-67 47%    
  Thu, Feb 26 156 Portland St. W 71-70 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 272 Sacramento St. W 76-69 73%    
  Mon, Mar 2 249 @Northern Arizona W 71-70 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 4.1 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 14.5 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 4.9 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 3.1 0.7 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 2.9 0.4 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.7 0.4 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.7 6.3 9.1 10.7 12.2 12.3 11.9 10.0 7.6 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 98.9% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 93.3% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 75.2% 4.1    2.8 1.1 0.1
13-5 43.7% 3.3    1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 16.3% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 9.5 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 63.4% 63.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 53.1% 53.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.6% 38.6% 38.6% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.3% 38.1% 38.1% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0
14-4 5.4% 31.0% 31.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 3.7
13-5 7.6% 24.9% 24.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 5.7
12-6 10.0% 18.0% 18.0% 14.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 8.2
11-7 11.9% 13.3% 13.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 10.4
10-8 12.3% 10.8% 10.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 11.0
9-9 12.2% 7.5% 7.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 11.3
8-10 10.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.3
7-11 9.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 8.9
6-12 6.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
5-13 4.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.6
4-14 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.1 3.7 3.5 87.8 0.0%