Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #205
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #176
Pace 70.2 #148
Improvement +4.3 #19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 C+ D- C D+ B-
Defense #226 F D A+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.19 #138 +0.0 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #283 0.55 #360 -3.4 #329
Three Pointers 47% #72 1.10 #74 +4.8 #36
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #140 +1.4 #140
Freethrows 17.8 #163 64% #356 11.4 #260
Second Chance 26.2% #306 0.96 #271 0.25 #304
Turnovers 16.2% #155
Total Offense -1.0 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.31 #332 -5.1 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #244 0.79 #240 +0.5 #157
Three Pointers 40% #218 1.09 #287 -1.0 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #334 -5.6 #334
Freethrows 20.4 #314 75% #286 15.3 #38
Second Chance 34.2% #308 1.09 #258 0.37 #298
Turnovers 21.4% #14
Total Defense -1.7 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #112 1.1% #279
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #153 9.8% #329
Possession Length 17.4 #177 16.9 #118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #79 0.20 #261
Improvement +4.2 #11 +0.1 #175

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 35.5% 44.2% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 98.0% 90.9%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round4.0% 4.6% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 34 - 54 - 12
Quad 411 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 25 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 4% -15  0 - 1 -7 -12 F F B- +5 C A+ A
 Fri, Nov 7 311 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 62% -5  0 - 2 -14 -15 F F B +1 B+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 184 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 35% -3  0 - 3 -4 -1 C A+ F -3 D B- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 89 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 13% -11  0 - 4 -10 +2 C- A+ F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 62 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 9% -12  0 - 5 -2 +1 D B+ D -1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 158 @Tulane L 72 - 82 29% -7  0 - 6 -7 +1 A F B- -9 F A A-
 Tue, Dec 2 43 @Creighton L 76 - 96 6% -15  0 - 7 -5 +11 A+ F A+ -16 F F A
 Sat, Dec 6 187 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 58% +3  1 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +5 B F A+ -2 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 301 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 79% +11  2 - 7 2 - 0 +4 +1 D+ D+ A+ +3 D+ D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 144 @Pacific L 82 - 95 26% -7  2 - 8 -9 +9 A+ F F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 34% +3  3 - 8 3 - 0 +6 +15 A+ A+ C -8 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 44% +2  4 - 8 4 - 0 +1 -0 C- C F +1 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 321 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 83% +12  5 - 8 5 - 0 +9 -0 D+ D+ D +9 B- C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 276 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 75% +2  6 - 8 6 - 0 -8 -4 C- F B+ -4 C F C
 Sat, Jan 10 245 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 46% +7  7 - 8 7 - 0 +11 +24 A+ B+ B+ -11 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 80 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 12% -15  7 - 9 7 - 1 -16 -5 B+ F D -9 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 220 Lamar W 71 - 67 63%
 Mon, Jan 19 108 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @SE Louisiana W 71 - 70 51%
 Mon, Jan 26 245 New Orleans W 82 - 77 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 321 @East Texas A&M W 76 - 72 64%
 Mon, Feb 2 276 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72 - 70 56%
 Mon, Feb 9 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 76 - 72 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 187 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 74 36%
 Mon, Feb 16 301 @Houston Christian W 73 - 71 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 18%
 Mon, Feb 23 220 @Lamar L 68 - 70 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 266 SE Louisiana W 74 - 68 71%
 Mon, Mar 2 80 McNeese St. L 71 - 78 26%
Totals 14 - 16 14 - 8 -3 -1 C+ D- C -2 F D A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.8 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.6 11.6 12.6 7.3 2.2 0.1 42.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.5 8.1 4.7 1.6 0.2 21.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.3 1.6 0.3 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 6.7 12.1 16.4 17.3 16.9 12.7 8.1 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
20-2 96.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
19-3 80.9% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
18-4 43.7% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2
17-5 15.9% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-6 3.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
15-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
20-2 0.3% 13.1% 13.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
19-3 1.3% 17.5% 17.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
18-4 3.5% 12.7% 12.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.0
17-5 8.1% 10.6% 10.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.3
16-6 12.7% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 11.8
15-7 16.9% 4.6% 4.6% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 16.1
14-8 17.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.3 0.2 16.8
13-9 16.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 16.2
12-10 12.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.0
11-11 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.6
10-12 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.2
9-13 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-14 0.3% 0.3
7-15 0.0% 0.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 14.7 95.9 0.0%