Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -8.9 310
Results Rating -8.0 295
Consistency 0.15 158
Pace 62.0 341
Improvement -1.5 246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 214 C D C D C-
Defense D- 350 D- D C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 183 C- 56% 218 -0.8 211
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 129 C- 37% 221 +0.8 140
Three Pointers 38% 240 B 36% 79 +0.0 179
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 236 C +0.3 157
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 176
Second Chance D- 23.9% 336 C- 1.00 235 D 0.24 329
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 132
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 213
Turnovers C 16.5% 160
Freethrows D+ 0.27 284 D- 67% 333 D 0.18 322
Total Offense C- -1.8 214

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 224 D+ 12.5% 275
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 269 D+ 6.9% 299
Three Pointers C+ 86% 147 B 0.3% 49
Total C- 53% 225 D+ 6.5% 285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 74 D+ 61% 257 +3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 323 C- 40% 254 -1.5 65
Three Pointers 41% 172 F+ 38% 347 +2.9 313
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 336 D- +4.1 326
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 334
Second Chance D+ 33.1% 292 D 1.11 293 D 0.37 313
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 230
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 147
Turnovers C- 16.2% 212
Freethrows C 0.30 172 C- 73% 236 C 0.22 181
Total Defense D- -7.1 350

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 53 D+ 7.9% 304
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 266 C- 3.8% 240
Three Pointers D 89% 310 D+ 0.5% 260
Total C 56% 181 D+ 4.2% 294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 339 17.2 164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 338 0.16 128
Consistency 0.14 265 0.14 307
Improvement +2.9 53 -4.4 350

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 319 308 291
Results Rating Rank 317 292 270
Conference Record 4 - 14 4 - 14 5 - 13
Conference Finish 10 10 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 97% 80% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 16.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 46 - 88 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 189 Drake L 71 - 77 25% -0  37% 0 - 1 D+ -8 D -6 D F A+ C- -2 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 3 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  2% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -13 D+ F+ F B+ +6 C B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 222 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 41% +0  54% 1 - 2 C -0 C+ +2 B C- C+ C- -3 F+ B+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 231 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 42% +7  94% 2 - 2 C +0 B- +4 C A+ B- D+ -4 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 209 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 38% -6  17% 2 - 3 F -19 F -15 F D- F+ D+ -4 B D C
 Sat, Dec 6 137 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  26% 2 - 4 C+ +3 D- -7 D+ D- C A +10 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 69 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2% 2 - 5 D- -13 F -19 F F C+ B +4 C B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 233 @San Diego L 69 - 78 23% -6  5% 2 - 6 D -10 D -5 C C F D -6 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 273 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 52% +0  43% 3 - 6 C -1 F -10 F+ D+ C+ A +9 B- A B+
 Sun, Dec 21 270 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 30% -10  3% 3 - 7 F -27 F -11 B- F F F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 192 @Montana L 64 - 78 17% -4  15% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D+ C+ F F+ -9 F B- C
 Sat, Jan 3 152 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 13% -7  13% 3 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- D B+ F+ -9 F+ D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 208 Weber St. L 65 - 78 38% -5  8% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F -19 F+ -8 F C B+ F -12 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 249 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 46% -2  39% 3 - 11 0 - 4 D -10 B- +4 D- A+ D F -14 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 274 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 30% -1  50% 3 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -17 D- -6 C F D- F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 158 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 14% -5  26% 3 - 13 0 - 6 D -8 F -11 C+ F D- C+ +1 C+ D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 192 Montana L 72 - 98 35% -12  6% 3 - 14 0 - 7 F -31 B- +5 A F A- F -40 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 31% +2  69% 4 - 14 1 - 7 C +0 A +13 A+ B+ C- F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 178 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 33% +12  99% 5 - 14 2 - 7 C+ +2 A+ +20 A- A+ A+ F -17 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 179 Idaho L 62 - 79 33% -15  0% 5 - 15 2 - 8 F -21 F -11 C- D+ D F -11 F A- D
 Thu, Feb 5 249 @Idaho St. W 79 - 73 25% +4  74% 6 - 15 3 - 8 C+ +4 A +14 A+ F A+ F+ -9 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 208 @Weber St. L 53 - 72 19% -7  27% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -19 F -14 F+ F C+ D- -8 D F C-
 Thu, Feb 12 158 Portland St. L 68 - 77 29% -1  38% 6 - 17 3 - 10 D- -12 C+ +3 C C+ A+ F -16 F F+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 274 Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 52% +10  98% 7 - 17 4 - 10 C- -4 D+ -4 B+ F C- C -0 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Northern Colorado L 77 - 78 15% -3  9% 7 - 18 4 - 11 C +1 B +6 B- C- B- D+ -4 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 26 179 @Idaho L 58 - 78 16% -10  1% 7 - 19 4 - 12 F -18 D- -8 D- D+ B- F -14 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 178 @Eastern Washington L 70 - 81 16%
 Mon, Mar 2 152 Montana St. L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -9 C- -2 B+ C C- D- -7 B D- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- B C 38% 42% 38% C- C D- C- D C D+ D- D D- D+ C- F+ D- 43% 16% 41% D D- D+ D D C- C C- C
1.06 56% 37% 36% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 16% .27 67% .18 1.19 61% 40% 38% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.1 .37 16% .30 73% .20
Nov
3		 Drake D F F A+ D- 49% 20% 31% A- D C F F A+ F F F C- C F C- D 46% 15% 38% F D- F A+ A+ C F+ D+ F+
1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11 1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Arizona F D+ F C+ D 40% 37% 23% C+ D+ B- F F+ F F B- F B+ C A+ F C 34% 18% 48% D+ C B- B B A+ C F D+
0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09 1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30
Nov
24		 Cal Poly C+ C A A B+ 39% 21% 39% D+ B C- C C- C+ A+ F A- C- D- A+ D+ F+ 43% 2% 55% D- F+ B+ B B+ C A- D+ A-
1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27 1.10 65% 0% 36% +4 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19
Nov
26		 Southeast Missouri St. B- C C C- C 49% 26% 26% C- C D+ A+ A+ B- B- D+ C+ D+ C A+ A+ A- 59% 7% 34% F B- C- D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31 1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11
Dec
3		 South Dakota St. F C- C+ F F 33% 24% 43% D F F+ C+ D- F+ B+ F D+ D+ B B B B+ 37% 12% 51% D B D+ D D C F C- F
0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20 1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31
Dec
6		 North Dakota St. D- A F A- C 34% 38% 28% F D+ D D- D- C F C+ F A A- D B- B- 27% 37% 37% A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ F+ A+ C-
0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10 0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20
Dec
9		 Arizona St. F A- F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F C+ F A+ D- B F A+ C+ C- 38% 25% 38% B C C A+ B+ A F+ A D+
0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17 1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29
Dec
13		 San Diego D A+ D+ B B- 26% 34% 40% F C C- C+ C F F+ A+ C- D D- B F F+ 33% 20% 47% C- F+ D F F B+ F C- F
1.04 75% 38% 37% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 26% .28 86% .24 1.17 67% 33% 43% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.7 .54 21% .46 75% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Utah F F+ D- A+ F+ 51% 31% 18% D+ F+ F+ B+ D+ C+ B D- C+ A A B F B 54% 21% 25% D- B- A- A A B+ C+ B+ B-
1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19 0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16
Dec
21		 Incarnate Word F B- F A+ B 41% 22% 37% D+ B- F F F F C+ F F F C- C F F 34% 15% 51% D- F F+ D- F F F B F
0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19 1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33
Jan
1		 Montana D F+ C+ C D+ 34% 28% 38% D D+ C B C+ F C B- C F+ F A F F 39% 14% 47% D+ F B- B- B- C B- F C
0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21 1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23
Jan
3		 Montana St. C+ C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 42% 21% F B- D D D B+ F+ F F F+ A F F D- 29% 13% 58% F+ F+ F+ D+ D- D- C F D-
1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13 1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24
Jan
8		 Weber St. F+ C- C+ F F 43% 11% 47% B F D A+ C B+ C- F D F B+ A F D+ 44% 7% 48% D- D+ C- F F F A+ A+ A+
1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20 1.24 50% 25% 42% +1 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05
Jan
10		 Idaho St. B- D+ F F F 60% 14% 26% A D- A- A+ A+ D A+ C A+ F F F C- F 41% 20% 39% B- F F C F A- F F+ F
1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38 1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34
Jan
15		 Sacramento St. D- D- A+ C+ C 48% 17% 35% C C C- F F D- F B D- F A+ C F D 37% 21% 42% D D C F F F C+ F D
1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19 1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30
Jan
17		 Portland St. F F+ C A B- 40% 26% 35% D+ C+ F F F D- D- F F C+ B A C+ B 47% 9% 45% F+ C+ F+ B- D+ C F A- D
0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21 1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24
Jan
19		 Montana B- A+ F B A 40% 4% 56% A+ A F F F A- C F D+ F F F F F 45% 10% 45% F F F F F F C D C-
1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18 1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24
Jan
24		 Northern Colorado A A+ C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F A+ F A+ B+ C- C+ D+ C F D D+ F F 26% 26% 48% A+ F F A- F A+ A F B+
1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26 1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13
Jan
29		 Eastern Washington A+ F A- A+ B+ 55% 8% 37% A A- D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B A+ F C- 51% 10% 39% F D F B F C F D F
1.42 48% 50% 56% +7 +3 1.22 27% 2.0 .54 8% .47 93% .43 1.33 52% 20% 47% +3 +2 1.12 49% 1.0 .49 19% .53 79% .42
Jan
31		 Idaho F D B+ D D+ 40% 27% 33% C+ C- D B- D+ D C- F F+ F F F+ D+ F 43% 13% 44% D F A+ C A- D A+ F+ A+
0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20 1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho St. A A A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 40% C- A+ F A+ F A+ D- D D- F+ F B+ C+ D- 52% 7% 41% F F+ A+ F F F C C C
1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20 1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23
Feb
7		 Weber St. F D+ F C D- 27% 25% 48% F F+ D- F F C+ C+ F D D- B- F D D+ 56% 7% 37% F D F D F C- F B- F
0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20 1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36
Feb
12		 Portland St. C+ C A+ F C 32% 16% 52% C C D A+ C+ A+ F A- D- F F F C+ F 61% 16% 24% F+ F A+ F F+ B- F F F
1.08 56% 75% 23% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.4 .32 11% .28 81% .23 1.22 70% 50% 33% +9 +2 1.24 20% 2.0 .40 21% .54 81% .44
Feb
14		 Sacramento St. D+ A A+ F+ B+ 39% 9% 52% C+ B+ F+ F F C- A+ F A+ C F F+ A+ C 45% 14% 41% F D+ D C+ D+ B+ F C+ F
1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36 1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34
Feb
21		 Northern Colorado B C- F A C+ 49% 16% 35% B- B- C C- C- B- A+ D+ A D+ D A A- B- 55% 15% 30% F C+ B- F F D F C+ F
1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34 1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28
Feb
26		 Idaho D- F C- B D- 35% 33% 33% D+ D- F+ A+ D+ B- D- C D- F A- A F F 40% 17% 43% C- F D F F D- A A+ A+
0.96 41% 38% 38% -4 -2 0.90 17% 1.3 .23 13% .28 73% .21 1.29 47% 25% 60% +10 +1 1.23 32% 1.4 .45 13% .21 55% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 3.2 3.2 8th
9th 22.4 1.7 24.1 9th
10th 60.8 12.0 72.7 10th
Total 60.8 34.3 4.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 34.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 34.2
4-14 60.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 60.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 38.4%