Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #296
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #320
Pace 65.7 #277
Improvement -2.9 #316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #272 C- D C- F D+
Defense #305 D C- C B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.11 #236 -0.2 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #72 0.66 #294 +1.0 #120
Three Pointers 34% #314 1.07 #110 -2.6 #275
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #226 -1.7 #225
Freethrows 14.7 #308 64% #354 9.5 #339
Second Chance 25.0% #322 1.02 #209 0.26 #299
Turnovers 17.3% #226
Total Offense -3.6 #272

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.18 #204 -1.3 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #272 0.77 #198 +1.1 #113
Three Pointers 43% #133 1.13 #325 -3.3 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #290 -3.5 #287
Freethrows 14.7 #58 74% #240 10.9 #291
Second Chance 32.8% #268 1.02 #154 0.34 #230
Turnovers 16.8% #173
Total Defense -4.2 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #268 1.1% #269
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #210 5.8% #287
Possession Length 18.7 #318 17.1 #153
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #326 0.16 #151
Improvement -0.2 #198 -2.7 #322

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.1% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.4% 6.5% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.7% 28.8% 66.4%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 101 - 13
Quad 47 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 165 Drake L 71 - 77 25% -0  0 - 1 -7 -2 D+ F A+ -5 D A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  0 - 2 -8 -11 D F F +3 B- C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 249 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 51% +0  1 - 2 -2 +6 A C C -8 F B C
 Wed, Nov 26 224 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 45% +7  2 - 2 +1 +4 D+ A+ B -3 B C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 176 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 36% -6  2 - 3 -17 -12 F F F -5 B+ D+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 148 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 14% -1  2 - 4 +3 -5 C F C +7 B B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 82 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 6% -12  2 - 5 -15 -18 F F C +1 C B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 222 @San Diego L 69 - 78 24% -6  2 - 6 -9 +0 B- D F -10 F F A-
 Thu, Dec 18 323 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 69% +0  3 - 6 -5 -7 F D B- +3 C A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 187 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 19% -10  3 - 7 -23 -4 A F F -20 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 186 @Montana L 64 - 78 19% -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -3 C- D+ F -10 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 161 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 16% -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -6 +4 A- F B+ -11 F D F
 Thu, Jan 8 197 Weber St. L 65 - 78 40% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -18 -4 D- C- B+ -16 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 196 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 40% -2  3 - 11 0 - 4 -7 +8 D+ A+ D+ -15 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 307 @Sacramento St. L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Jan 17 145 @Portland St. L 65 - 77 14%
 Mon, Jan 19 186 Montana L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Jan 24 174 Northern Colorado L 73 - 77 36%
 Thu, Jan 29 255 Eastern Washington W 76 - 75 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 194 Idaho L 72 - 75 40%
 Thu, Feb 5 196 @Idaho St. L 68 - 77 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 197 @Weber St. L 70 - 79 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 145 Portland St. L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 307 Sacramento St. W 79 - 75 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 174 @Northern Colorado L 70 - 80 18%
 Thu, Feb 26 194 @Idaho L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 @Eastern Washington L 73 - 78 31%
 Mon, Mar 2 161 Montana St. L 68 - 73 34%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -8 -4 C- D C- -4 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 3.8 2.1 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 4.3 7.2 3.9 0.4 16.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 9.1 10.6 5.3 0.7 0.0 30.8 9th
10th 1.1 4.3 8.9 11.7 8.4 2.9 0.5 37.8 10th
Total 1.1 4.3 9.7 16.0 18.2 18.0 14.5 9.3 5.4 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 15.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 13.0% 13.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.1 2.1
8-10 5.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.3
7-11 9.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-12 14.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.4
5-13 18.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.8
4-14 18.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.2
3-15 16.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.9
2-16 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
1-17 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%