Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#181
Pace68.0#236
Improvement+2.1#41

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#204
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#105
Layup/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows-3.5#344
Improvement+1.7#48

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#286
First Shot-6.0#343
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#38
Layups/Dunks-4.8#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#313
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement+0.3#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.2% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 28.4% 41.1% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.5% 46.6% 32.1%
Conference Champion 4.9% 6.7% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 20.2% 15.1% 24.1%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round4.3% 5.9% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 49 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 143 Drake L 71-77 30%     0 - 1 -5.4 +1.1 -6.6
  Tue, Nov 11 11 @Arizona L 49-84 2%     0 - 2 -13.3 -14.1 +1.4
  Mon, Nov 24 245 Cal Poly W 93-87 61%     1 - 2 -1.8 +5.9 -8.3
  Wed, Nov 26 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 55%     2 - 2 +0.8 +4.6 -3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 150 South Dakota St. L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Dec 6 155 @North Dakota St. L 69-77 24%    
  Tue, Dec 9 83 @Arizona St. L 69-84 9%    
  Sat, Dec 13 247 @San Diego L 76-79 39%    
  Thu, Dec 18 331 Southern Utah W 80-72 76%    
  Sat, Dec 20 192 @Incarnate Word L 69-75 29%    
  Thu, Jan 1 191 @Montana L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 186 @Montana St. L 68-74 30%    
  Thu, Jan 8 229 Weber St. W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 230 Idaho St. W 70-68 58%    
  Thu, Jan 15 272 @Sacramento St. L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 156 @Portland St. L 70-78 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 191 Montana W 78-77 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 145 Northern Colorado L 74-76 43%    
  Thu, Jan 29 240 Eastern Washington W 78-75 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 168 Idaho L 72-73 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 230 @Idaho St. L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 229 @Weber St. L 74-78 38%    
  Thu, Feb 12 156 Portland St. L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 272 Sacramento St. W 78-74 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 145 @Northern Colorado L 71-79 24%    
  Thu, Feb 26 168 @Idaho L 69-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 @Eastern Washington L 75-78 39%    
  Mon, Mar 2 186 Montana St. L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.6 3.5 0.4 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.7 3.5 2.1 0.4 13.2 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.6 7.1 10.0 11.7 12.5 12.1 11.1 9.1 7.1 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 89.5% 0.7    0.5 0.1
14-4 77.0% 1.4    1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 43.3% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.9% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 48.0% 48.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 24.1% 24.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 26.5% 26.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.8% 22.4% 22.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
13-5 3.3% 18.6% 18.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.7
12-6 5.0% 13.5% 13.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 4.3
11-7 7.1% 9.4% 9.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.4
10-8 9.1% 7.7% 7.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 8.4
9-9 11.1% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.6
8-10 12.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.7
7-11 12.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.2
6-12 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.6
5-13 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.0
4-14 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 95.3 0.0%