Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.6 #307
Expected Predictive Rating -12.6 #336
Pace 79.3 #15
Improvement -3.3 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #294 F C+ C C F
Defense #300 D+ D+ C- D F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 0.98 #343 -5.7 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #34 0.74 #192 +3.3 #45
Three Pointers 36% #284 0.80 #358 -6.4 #340
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #361 -8.7 #361
Freethrows 17.9 #150 73% #170 13.1 #146
Second Chance 28.7% #238 1.18 #41 0.34 #135
Turnovers 16.4% #161
Total Offense -4.5 #294

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #80 1.14 #149 -1.7 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #336 0.96 #362 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 43% #123 1.05 #236 -1.9 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #273 -2.9 #273
Freethrows 18.9 #264 75% #292 14.2 #76
Second Chance 32.4% #250 1.10 #259 0.35 #267
Turnovers 15.5% #245
Total Defense -4.1 #300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 2.1% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.6% #357 3.5% #253
Possession Length 15.6 #45 16.4 #51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #122 0.22 #312
Improvement -0.2 #193 -3.2 #332

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.6% 8.3% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.4% 31.7% 69.1%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 76 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 181 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 35% -6  0 - 1 -10 +5 B+ C C -14 D+ C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 188 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 18% +2  0 - 2 -3 -3 F C+ D- +0 A+ D- C
 Sun, Nov 16 292 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 58% -4  1 - 2 -9 -10 F A+ F +2 A- A F
 Tue, Nov 18 38 @UCLA L 48 - 79 2% -19  1 - 3 -15 -18 F D B +3 B+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 81 @California L 67 - 91 5% -18  1 - 4 -14 -6 F B- B+ -7 F B B-
 Sat, Nov 29 144 @Pacific L 54 - 68 12% -6  1 - 5 -10 -18 F D C +8 C+ B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 2 37 @Baylor L 88 - 110 2% -7  1 - 6 -5 +14 F A+ D+ -18 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 157 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 14% -2  1 - 7 -4 -1 F A+ D+ -3 A+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 21% -4  1 - 8 -12 +3 F F A+ -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 196 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 19% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -12 -2 F B- C -8 F B F
 Sat, Jan 3 197 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 19% -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -12 +1 B F F -12 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 145 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 12% -14  1 - 11 0 - 3 -23 -2 F F A+ -20 F B F
 Thu, Jan 15 296 Northern Arizona W 78 - 76 58%
 Sat, Jan 17 174 Northern Colorado L 79 - 84 33%
 Thu, Jan 22 194 @Idaho L 75 - 84 19%
 Sat, Jan 24 255 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 85 29%
 Thu, Jan 29 161 Montana St. L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 186 Montana L 79 - 83 35%
 Mon, Feb 2 197 Weber St. L 80 - 83 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 145 Portland St. L 74 - 80 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 174 @Northern Colorado L 76 - 87 17%
 Sat, Feb 14 296 @Northern Arizona L 75 - 79 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 255 Eastern Washington L 82 - 83 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Idaho L 78 - 81 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 186 @Montana L 76 - 86 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 161 @Montana St. L 71 - 82 15%
 Mon, Mar 2 196 Idaho St. L 77 - 80 38%
Totals 6 - 21 5 - 13 -9 -5 F C+ C -4 D+ D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 4.0 2.4 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.8 4.1 0.5 16.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.0 9.2 10.5 5.3 0.8 0.0 30.6 9th
10th 1.1 4.5 8.4 10.7 7.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 34.9 10th
Total 1.1 4.5 9.2 14.7 17.3 17.3 14.0 10.1 6.2 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 23.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.7% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.6
9-9 3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 3.1
8-10 6.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 6.1
7-11 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
6-12 14.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.9
5-13 17.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.3
4-14 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.2
3-15 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
2-16 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
1-17 4.5% 4.5
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%