SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#204
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#178
Pace65.4#287
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#275
First Shot-2.3#241
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#287
Layup/Dunks+0.4#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#333
Freethrows-0.4#192
Improvement+1.9#38

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#339
Layups/Dunks+8.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#254
Freethrows-1.7#281
Improvement-2.2#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 23.6% 16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 84.3% 89.2% 73.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 88.4% 80.9%
Conference Champion 32.0% 34.8% 25.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
First Four3.0% 3.0% 3.2%
First Round19.8% 22.2% 14.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 33 - 4
Quad 415 - 818 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 231 @Texas San Antonio W 77-60 43%     1 - 0 +16.0 +1.7 +13.7
  Mon, Nov 10 166 Indiana St. L 55-64 54%     1 - 1 -13.0 -19.1 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 14 143 @Drake W 61-59 27%     2 - 1 +5.6 +0.6 +5.3
  Mon, Nov 17 27 @Wisconsin L 69-94 4%     2 - 2 -8.0 +6.8 -16.2
  Fri, Nov 21 323 @Air Force L 63-77 61%     2 - 3 -19.6 -9.5 -10.5
  Sun, Nov 23 266 Alabama St. W 83-68 60%     3 - 3 +9.4 +10.8 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 2 341 @North Florida W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Dec 6 243 Western Michigan W 72-67 67%    
  Thu, Dec 18 329 @Eastern Illinois W 67-63 63%    
  Mon, Dec 22 353 @Western Illinois W 69-62 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 314 Southern Indiana W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 310 Morehead St. W 72-64 77%    
  Tue, Jan 6 306 Lindenwood W 73-65 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 248 Arkansas Little Rock W 68-63 68%    
  Thu, Jan 15 263 @Tennessee Martin L 66-67 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 211 @Southeast Missouri St. L 68-71 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 224 Tennessee St. W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 322 Tennessee Tech W 72-63 78%    
  Thu, Jan 29 310 @Morehead St. W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 314 @Southern Indiana W 72-70 58%    
  Tue, Feb 3 306 @Lindenwood W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65-66 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 263 Tennessee Martin W 69-63 69%    
  Thu, Feb 19 322 @Tennessee Tech W 69-66 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 224 @Tennessee St. L 70-72 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 353 Western Illinois W 72-59 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 329 Eastern Illinois W 70-60 79%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.3 7.6 7.8 6.0 3.1 1.3 0.3 32.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 6.1 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.1 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.1 0.8 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.0 5.5 8.0 9.9 11.7 12.8 12.4 11.4 8.9 6.1 3.2 1.3 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 99.7% 3.1    3.1 0.1
17-3 97.8% 6.0    5.5 0.5
16-4 87.2% 7.8    6.4 1.3 0.1
15-5 66.0% 7.6    4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0
14-6 34.7% 4.3    1.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.4% 1.5    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 22.9 6.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 43.0% 43.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.3% 55.0% 55.0% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6
18-2 3.2% 48.7% 48.7% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.6
17-3 6.1% 45.2% 45.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 3.4
16-4 8.9% 39.3% 39.3% 14.8 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 5.4
15-5 11.4% 33.2% 33.2% 15.1 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.2 7.6
14-6 12.4% 27.4% 27.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.7 9.0
13-7 12.8% 19.2% 19.2% 15.7 0.1 0.7 1.7 10.4
12-8 11.7% 13.6% 13.6% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 10.1
11-9 9.9% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 9.3
10-10 8.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.6
9-11 5.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 5.3
8-12 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.9
7-13 2.2% 2.2
6-14 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.2 7.7 7.9 78.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 36.7 43.3 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%