Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.4 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -19.3 #358
Pace 70.5 #144
Improvement -0.3 #207

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #346 F F C D+ C-
Defense #285 D- B- D C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 0.91 #364 -7.2 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #156 0.67 #287 -0.5 #203
Three Pointers 45% #108 0.90 #305 -0.5 #200
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #354 -8.2 #355
Freethrows 18.0 #145 63% #362 11.3 #266
Second Chance 25.4% #315 0.84 #353 0.21 #351
Turnovers 16.7% #182
Total Offense -7.8 #346

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 52% #2 1.19 #219 -8.3 #362
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #242 0.71 #117 +1.2 #106
Three Pointers 30% #364 1.18 #352 +2.9 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #307 -4.2 #308
Freethrows 17.9 #214 73% #176 13.0 #152
Second Chance 31.9% #236 0.89 #22 0.28 #89
Turnovers 14.9% #287
Total Defense -3.6 #285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #257 2.5% #356
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.1% #359 5.5% #281
Possession Length 18.0 #242 16.2 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #305 0.24 #350
Improvement +1.1 #117 -1.4 #275

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 4.5% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.5% 20.4% 39.6%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 61 - 7
Quad 45 - 156 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 58 @Butler L 58 - 88 2% -18  0 - 1 -18 -13 F F C+ -3 C- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 339 VMI L 74 - 78 61% +3  0 - 2 -18 -14 F F A- -4 D+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 12 282 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 24% -9  0 - 3 -19 -15 F F D- -2 B D- A
 Thu, Nov 20 187 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 18% -8  0 - 4 -8 +4 B- F A- -12 F C C
 Sat, Nov 22 160 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 15% -11  0 - 5 -11 -2 C+ F C+ -9 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 184 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 12% +6  1 - 5 +9 -7 D- B- F +17 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Dec 3 250 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 19% -13  1 - 6 -16 -4 D+ F A+ -12 F D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 207 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 14% -11  1 - 7 -22 -13 F F B -11 F A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 283 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 44% -4  1 - 8 0 - 1 -25 -13 F D B -12 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 304 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 50% +5  1 - 9 0 - 2 -15 -12 F F F -3 B+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 278 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 23% -6  1 - 10 0 - 3 -8 -13 F D- F +6 A- D- A
 Sat, Jan 3 252 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 20% -5  1 - 11 0 - 4 -5 +6 B D- F -11 C F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 32% -5  1 - 12 0 - 5 -14 +0 D- B F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 225 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 32% +17  1 - 13 0 - 6 -23 -12 F D F -13 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 15 314 @Tennessee Tech L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Jan 17 226 @Tennessee St. L 69 - 80 15%
 Thu, Jan 22 311 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 67 51%
 Sat, Jan 24 357 Western Illinois W 70 - 64 73%
 Thu, Jan 29 252 Lindenwood L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Jan 31 278 SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 44%
 Thu, Feb 5 225 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 75 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 80 15%
 Thu, Feb 12 226 Tennessee St. L 72 - 77 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 314 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 72 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 357 @Western Illinois W 67 - 66 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 311 @Eastern Illinois L 64 - 70 31%
 Tue, Feb 24 304 @Morehead St. L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 283 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68 - 75 25%
Totals 6 - 22 5 - 15 -11 -8 F F C -4 D- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.3 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.8 6.3 2.2 0.2 16.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 6.2 12.7 14.8 9.4 3.0 0.2 47.8 10th
11th 0.5 2.6 5.8 6.6 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 22.2 11th
Total 0.5 2.7 7.2 12.9 17.7 18.8 15.9 11.9 7.0 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.0
7-13 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 15.9% 15.9
5-15 18.8% 18.8
4-16 17.7% 17.7
3-17 12.9% 12.9
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 2.7% 2.7
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%